In a move reflecting growing concern about water supply security amid developments related to Iran, the General Secretariat of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) convened an extraordinary meeting of the Water Resources Committee on March 3.
The meeting, held via videoconference with the participation of representatives from member states, discussed the latest developments in the water sector, assessed the preparedness level of GCC countries, and examined mechanisms for joint coordination to ensure the sustainability of water supplies and strengthen water-security systems under current regional conditions.
The Arabian Gulf region is among the most dependent in the world on desalinated water. Specialized reports indicate that it produces about 40 percent of the world’s total desalinated water.
Because of this heavy reliance, desalination plants have become a fundamental part of the Gulf states’ infrastructure. Water supplies are directly tied to the operation of these plants, as well as to pumping systems, transmission networks, and the energy sources required to run them.
World Bank reports confirm that the sustainability of water supplies in the region depends on countries’ ability to maintain this complex system while also managing the growing demand for water.
However, this vital system faces increasing security challenges amid the recent military developments in the Middle East. Since the outbreak of military operations launched by the United States and Israel against Iran, Gulf countries have found themselves at the center of the conflict’s repercussions. Tehran responded by launching hundreds of missiles and drones toward several countries in the region, targeting U.S. military bases on their territory as well as civilian facilities and infrastructure linked to the energy sector.
This has disrupted the oil and gas sector, a cornerstone of the region’s economies, and raised growing questions about the possibility that attacks could expand to include other critical facilities, including desalination plants.
In this context, academic and political analyst Dr. Ayed Al-Mana told Alhurra that targeting desalination plants in Gulf countries “would be an extremely painful blow and could even represent a decisive strike.”
However, political communications specialist Ahmed Al-Shezawi considers such a scenario unlikely. He told Alhurra that Gulf countries are “a third party in this conflict, not a direct participant in the war,” questioning the logic of targeting water facilities that represent a lifeline for civilians and have no direct military dimension.
Potential Targets
Water infrastructure in the Gulf region has not been entirely outside the scope of targeting in armed conflicts. In June 2019, the Arab coalition announced that the Houthis had fired a projectile toward a desalination plant in southern Saudi Arabia. More recently, Qatar announced that a water reservoir belonging to a power plant in Mesaieed, south of Doha, had been targeted by a drone attack.
Al-Mana believes that the recent targeting of energy facilities could open the door to attacks on water infrastructure. He explains that Gulf countries rely heavily on desalinated water as the primary source for various uses, meaning that any threat to these facilities would directly affect these states, despite the possibility that precautionary measures have been prepared to address such scenarios.
GCC countries face one of the highest levels of water scarcity in the world due to limited natural water resources, low rainfall levels, and the absence of permanent rivers across most of the region.
Bloomberg reported on March 4 that water facilities in the Gulf are large in scale, located near the coast, and powered by oil and gas—making them highly flammable and difficult to defend. The report noted that the Jubail desalination plant alone once supplied about 90 percent of Riyadh’s drinking water.
World Bank estimates indicate that the share of renewable water resources per capita in many Gulf countries is less than 500 cubic meters annually, far below the global water-poverty threshold of about 1,000 cubic meters per person per year.
Because of these conditions, seawater desalination has become the primary source of drinking water across most Gulf states. Some countries rely on desalination to supply between 50 percent and more than 90 percent of their potable water needs.
For this reason, Al-Shezawi argues that Gulf states do not yet possess a fully developed water-security system. However, in recent years they have begun addressing the issue strategically through projects linking water networks between countries, developing more efficient desalination technologies, and searching for alternative water sources.
“Desalination represents the backbone of water security in the region, given the scarcity of rivers and the weakness of groundwater resources. Any major disruption to desalination plant operations would immediately affect residents’ lives and essential services,” Al-Shezawi added.
Water Security Challenges
International humanitarian law explicitly prohibits targeting facilities necessary for the survival of civilian populations. Article 54 of the First Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions bans attacks on or the disabling of drinking-water installations, supply networks, and irrigation works.
However, conflicts around the world in recent years have shown a growing pattern of targeting civilian infrastructure by states or non-state armed groups.
Threat sources are not limited to direct military operations. Other studies suggest that desalination facilities in the Gulf could also be exposed to non-hostile risks, such as oil spills or nuclear accidents in the region.
Some analyses indicate that any potential radioactive leak could allow contaminated clouds to reach GCC countries in as little as 15 hours, highlighting the sensitivity of the Gulf’s water infrastructure and its close connection to the stability of civilian life in the region.
In this context, Al-Shezawi believes that “targeting desalination plants in the Gulf, if it were to occur, would carry a heavy political and legal cost,” noting that such a step could severely damage Iran’s international reputation and push the international community to align more strongly against it.
Such targeting could also fall under the category of war crimes or collective punishment. Nevertheless, Al-Shezawi considers this scenario unlikely, while warning that if it were to happen, it could open the door to a broad humanitarian and security crisis.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Sakina Abdallah
A Saudi writer, researcher, and TV presenter
