Since Iran launched strikes on Gulf countries following U.S. and Israeli attacks against it, the entire region has become exposed to ballistic missiles and drones. Although the scope of these operations has expanded to include several countries in the region, official statements and international media reports clearly show that the countries—particularly those in the Gulf—have not been subjected to Iranian attacks equally.
According to a report by Anadolu Agency, based on official data released by the countries concerned, Iran had targeted sites in seven Arab countries with at least 3,095 missiles and drones, in addition to two fighter aircraft, as of Monday evening.
The attacks continued even after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced in a televised speech last Sunday that strikes on neighboring countries would cease—except in cases where attacks against Iran might be launched from the territory of those countries.
Dr. Dhafer Al-Ajmi, a political and military analyst, believes that this variation in the targeting of Gulf states “cannot be explained as the result of random circumstances or a temporary operational situation. Rather, it reflects a calculated pattern in managing escalation, where geopolitical calculations and operational necessities intersect with the political messages Iran seeks to convey within the framework of regional deterrence.”
Major General Dr. Zayed Al-Omari says that the variation in targeting reflects each Gulf country’s position in Iranian strategic calculations. The intensity of strikes, he explains, is linked to the scale of a country’s political and security role and to how closely it is connected to issues that Tehran considers part of its national security or sphere of influence.
Countries Most Affected by Attacks
The United Arab Emirates topped the list of countries most exposed to Iranian attacks, followed by Kuwait, then Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, while Oman remained the least targeted, with only about eight drones recorded heading in its direction.
In the UAE, the Ministry of Defense confirmed that air defense systems repeatedly intercepted missile and drone attacks coming from Iran. According to the cumulative figures announced, 262 ballistic missiles have been detected since the start of the Iranian assaults. Air defenses successfully destroyed 241 of them, while 19 missiles fell into the sea and two landed inside the country. Authorities also detected 1,475 drones, of which 1,385 were intercepted and destroyed, in addition to the downing of eight cruise missiles.
Available Kuwaiti data indicate that at least 238 missiles and 430 drones targeted Kuwaiti territory during the escalation period. Kuwaiti authorities reported missile and drone attacks between March 2 and March 5, although they did not provide precise detailed figures for that phase. Later information indicates that between March 6 and March 9, 120 ballistic missiles were detected, 17 of which were intercepted, while 208 drones were recorded, with 22 intercepted during the same period.
In Bahrain, the General Command of the Bahrain Defense Force announced that air defense systems had intercepted and destroyed 106 missiles and 176 drones since the beginning of the Iranian attacks.
Qatar has not announced an overall tally of the attacks. However, available data indicate that 127 ballistic missiles were detected, 118 of which were intercepted, along with 63 drones, 47 of which were intercepted. Authorities also recorded the detection and interception of seven additional missiles, as well as two Su-24 fighter aircraft, both of which were detected and intercepted.
The attacks also extended to Saudi Arabia. However, the level of targeting recorded in the Kingdom was lower compared with some other Gulf countries that faced a larger number of missile and drone strikes during the escalation.
Decline in the Pace of Strikes
Despite the continuation of attacks in several Gulf states, military and political indicators suggest a noticeable decline in the pace of strikes compared with the early phase of the escalation. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that Iranian ballistic missile attacks had decreased by more than 90 percent since the war began on February 28, while drone attacks dropped by about 85 percent during the same period.
Al-Omari notes that Gulf countries do not occupy the same position in Iranian strategic calculations. The level of targeting, he says, depends on the scale of a country’s political and security role and on how closely it is linked to issues that Tehran considers part of its national security or sphere of influence.
Strategic Calculations Behind the Targeting
Dr. Dhafer Al-Ajmi believes the Iranian escalation follows a strategy of “graduated pressure,” in which military and political tools overlap. Countries hosting Western military bases become primary targets in order to disrupt military supply lines, while varying levels of strikes help prevent the formation of a unified Gulf front by applying pressure on some states while maintaining communication channels with others.
Al-Ajmi adds that this variation reflects Iran’s assessment of levels of threat rather than simple importance. While energy centers are considered strategic targets for raising the economic cost of the conflict, some countries may be spared heavy targeting in order to avoid unpredictable international responses. Geography and defensive capabilities also play a decisive role. Proximity to Iranian shores gives Tehran an operational advantage in deploying drones and short-range missiles, while advanced defense systems such as Patriot and THAAD limit the effectiveness of these attacks and reinforce the balance of deterrence.
Iran’s attacks on several Gulf states following the U.S. and Israeli strikes have raised questions about whether they are merely a military response against American interests in the region or whether they also carry political messages directed at Gulf states—particularly given the variation in targeting levels from one country to another.
Dr. Dhafer Al-Ajmi says that military action cannot be separated from its political objectives. Targeting economic facilities, he notes, is sometimes used to send messages that influence countries’ diplomatic positions and demonstrate the ability to reach their vital infrastructure. In his view, the variation in attacks reflects a pressure strategy aimed at disrupting the Gulf position, at a time when the Gulf response moved along both military and diplomatic tracks, including a collective initiative at the United Nations and the Security Council to condemn the attacks and mobilize international support to protect navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
For his part, Dr. Zayed Al-Omari believes that target selection in such operations carries political dimensions as much as military ones. The impact of a strike, he argues, is not measured solely by the scale of destruction but also by the psychological, political, and media effects it produces. According to Al-Omari, strikes may be used to send deterrent signals or apply pressure on specific countries—appearing on the surface as military operations but carrying political messages at their core.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Sakina Abdallah
A Saudi writer, researcher, and TV presenter
