Iran War: Where Do the Azerbaijanis Stand?

As soon as the U.S.–Israeli war against Iran began, the issue of the country’s ethnic minorities returned to the forefront amid reports suggesting the possibility of providing them with military support to help overthrow the regime.

These speculations gained some momentum after statements by U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this month in which he expressed support for any attack the Kurds might launch against Iran. The remarks were interpreted by some as a possible prelude to a scenario that would rely on mobilizing internal opposition alongside military strikes.

Iran is currently experiencing a period of uncertainty amid the war and growing questions about the Iranian regime’s ability to maintain control at home, particularly in regions with large ethnic minority populations.

Among these minorities, the Azerbaijanis stand out as the country’s largest ethnic group after the Persians, representing between 16 and 20 percent of Iran’s population of more than 90 million.

This large number, along with their geographic concentration in areas bordering Azerbaijan, gives the Azerbaijanis a potentially influential role that could affect Iran’s future should the war continue or the central government weaken.

According to Iran analyst Anders Alves, it is difficult to predict what direction the situation of Azerbaijanis in Iran may take amid the current war or what steps they might pursue next.

“Azerbaijanis in Iran constitute a large group that cannot be ignored, but at the same time they are highly integrated into society and are well represented in political, military, intellectual, and religious circles, which makes it difficult to mobilize them easily as a separate group,” Alves told Alhurra.

Azerbaijanis in Iran are concentrated along the border with Azerbaijan in the country’s northwest, mainly in four provinces: East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, and Zanjan. There are also large communities in Hamadan, Qazvin, Markazi, and Gilan.

Azerbaijanis speak Azerbaijani Turkish, but many are also fluent in Persian, which facilitates their integration into public life and administration.

Most Azerbaijanis in Iran follow Twelver Shiite Islam, like the majority of Iranians, a factor that has helped them integrate into the state, with many occupying important political and military positions.

For example, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is of Azerbaijani origin, and the current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is also Azerbaijani—reflecting the deep level of Azerbaijani involvement within Iran’s political system.

Despite this integration, some cultural demands continue to be voiced by Azerbaijanis, including calls to allow the teaching of their language in schools and to expand their cultural media outlets.

In recent years, reports have also emerged of the arrest of activists advocating linguistic and cultural rights.

Azerbaijanis in Iran maintain strong cultural and linguistic ties with the population of neighboring Azerbaijan, as the historical region of Azerbaijan was divided between Iran and Russia in 1828.

Relations between the two countries have long been tense, with Iran expressing anger over Azerbaijan’s close ties with Israel, a factor that further complicates the situation of Azerbaijanis in Iran and their future.

“One important fact to consider is the presence of an independent Azerbaijani state next door, which is among the few Muslim-majority countries in the world that maintains full diplomatic relations, intelligence cooperation, and significant trade with Israel,” Alves said.

A History of Dissent

Azerbaijanis took part in protests that began last December and continued until January 2026, although their participation was relatively limited compared with other areas such as Tehran or Kurdish and Baluch regions.

Tabriz, the capital of East Azerbaijan province, witnessed demonstrations and clashes with security forces. Several reports said protesters chanted slogans against the regime and confrontations took place. Bazaar merchants in Tabriz also declared a general strike on certain days, contributing to increased economic pressure.

Earlier, Azerbaijanis had played a significant role in the 2022 protests that erupted after the death of Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police.

Large numbers of Azerbaijanis joined protests in Tabriz, Urmia, and Ardabil, chanting slogans such as “Freedom, Justice, National Government.” Several protesters were killed by security forces during those demonstrations.

Over the past two decades, Azerbaijani-majority areas have witnessed numerous anti-government protests, most notably those that began in May 2006 after a cartoon mocking Azerbaijanis was published in a state-run newspaper.

At the time, tens of thousands took to the streets in Tabriz, Urmia, Ardabil, and Zanjan, chanting slogans against racism and demanding language rights. The protests lasted several days but were forcefully suppressed by security forces, resulting in deaths, injuries, and a wave of arrests.

In August 2011, protests resurfaced in Azerbaijani regions due to the drying up of Lake Urmia, a large lake on which millions of residents depend for agriculture and drinking water.

Demonstrations took place in Tabriz and Urmia demanding the removal of dams and action to save the lake. Although the issue was environmental, it evolved into ethnic demands before subsiding after authorities arrested dozens of activists and protesters.

Opposition Forces

Azerbaijanis have roughly six main opposition groups operating either clandestinely or from exile, seeking cultural or ethnic autonomy from Tehran.

Among them are the “South Azerbaijan National Movement,” which advocates integration with the Republic of Azerbaijan; the “National Awakening Movement of South Azerbaijan,” which focuses on building Azerbaijani identity; and the “Azerbaijani National Resistance Organization,” which emphasizes human rights.

According to the U.S.-based New Lines Institute, recent years have seen a noticeable decline in armed operations in Iran’s Azerbaijani-dominated provinces.

The most prominent ethnically Azerbaijani opposition figure in Iran is Hassan Shariatmadari, whose father, the late Grand Ayatollah Kazem Shariatmadari, faced harassment from Iran’s security services.

However, Tim Marshall wrote in an article published this week in the British newspaper The Times that despite some disagreements with the regime, Azerbaijanis are well integrated into Iranian society and the state.

“So far there is no organized threat to the regime emerging from this minority,” Marshall said.

The article is a translation of the original Arabic.