For more than four decades, Iran’s ruling system has continuously warned Iranians of the danger of civil war should they attempt to overthrow it.
But would a civil war actually break out if the system of the Supreme Leader were to fall in Iran?
Activists and citizens from different cities inside Iran who spoke with Alhurra by phone say that Iranian security agencies have begun spreading rumors to frighten people about the loss of stability and the risk of a civil war erupting. They confirmed that these rumors are one of the reasons a popular uprising against the regime has not occurred in tandem with the ongoing war.
Although he rules out the outbreak of a civil war in Iran after the fall of the regime, Aref Bawjani, head of the opposition Kurdish “Sarbasti” Party, does not hide his concern that some conflicts could emerge in the future between regions and components in Iran, including a possible “war between Shiites and Sunnis.”
“There is a set of geographic and border disputes between Arabs and Persians, and between Kurds, Azeris, Lurs, and Arabs. Successive governments, including the current one, have consistently tried to stir geographic tensions among these groups by mixing their regions. For example, in the city of Urmia, Iranian regimes resettled Azeris in order to create tensions between Kurds and Azeris. Similar cases have been repeated in many other cities,” Bawjani told Alhurra.
Bawjani called on the United States to push for the formation of an inclusive government after the fall of the Iranian regime—one that includes representatives of all regions and peoples in Iran. He also emphasized the need to enact legislation preventing the incitement of conflict and to establish the right of peoples to self-determination as a central principle for coexistence.
Iran’s demographic map shows a dominant Persian presence in cities and towns located in the center and east of the country, while Kurdish populations are concentrated along the western and northwestern regions. Azeris live adjacent to Kurdish areas and inhabit regions in the northwest along the border with Azerbaijan. The Mazandaranis and Gilaks live along the Caspian Sea coast in northern Iran, while Arabs—known as Ahwazis—live in the southwest of Iran, and the Baluch inhabit the southeastern region overlooking the Arabian Sea.
Salah Abu Sharif al-Ahwazi, secretary-general of the Ahwazi Popular Democratic Front, believes that fears of a civil war in Iran are a direct result of propaganda promoted by Iran’s authoritarian regimes, including the current one.
“The goal of spreading the idea of a civil war is to frighten neighboring countries and the world about any real change in Iran’s current geographic structure. The truth is that non-Persian peoples have suffered for decades from oppression, occupation, and systematic discrimination, and have paid a heavy price in their pursuit of freedom and the right to self-determination. For that reason, they are more aware than others of the dangers of chaos and slipping into war,” he said, ruling out the likelihood of conflict between these groups.
Al-Ahwazi, who also serves as head of the Coalition of Non-Persian Peoples Seeking Self-Determination in Iran, added that “the policies of Persianization, demographic engineering, economic discrimination, and the stirring of sectarian and ethnic tensions—practices used by successive regimes in Iran, including the current system of the Supreme Leader—have left dangerous effects on the country’s social and political fabric.”
To prevent any future internal clashes or conflict, al-Ahwazi believes there are clear principles that could serve as practical guarantees if the regime falls. These include “commitment to political dialogue among the different components, the formation of coordination committees and local joint transitional administrations, respect for the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the right of peoples to self-determination, and seeking assistance from international institutions, the United Nations, and friendly countries in the region and the world when mediation or political and security support is needed.”
Military figures in the Iranian opposition—including Ahwazi and Kurdish opponents—have accused Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of beginning more than a year ago to arm members of tribal communities from different ethnic groups in order to stir local conflicts and internal chaos if the regime loses control of the country.
Saleh Darum, secretary-general of the Southern Azerbaijan Independence Party (Azerbaijan Iran), noted that both the previous and current regimes in Iran divided the country into several parts “so that peoples and ethnic groups would not be able to unite on their lands, with their neighbors, or against authoritarian regimes.”
“Because of the territorial divisions and demographic changes carried out by the system of the Supreme Leader and the previous regime on the lands of non-Persian peoples, there is concern about the possibility of civil war among these groups now—either before the regime collapses or after it does,” Darum told Alhurra.
Darum stressed the need for the concerned groups to resolve this issue through dialogue among themselves.
“We in the Independence Party have informed other peoples’ parties that we possess historical maps that could serve as a starting point for resolving these disputes.”
Iran’s current centralized geography was not unified in the same way during the Safavid and Qajar eras. That political order ended when Reza Shah Pahlavi came to power and the Qajar state collapsed in 1925. A new phase began that unified Iran under a centralized system—one that has continued to this day, even after the fall of the shah at the hands of Ruhollah Khomeini and the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
