In a world where politics intertwine with economics, and conflicts evolve into cross-border humanitarian crises, food security is emerging as one of the most serious challenges threatening millions of people. From the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandab, and from Gaza to Africa and Asia, the repercussions are accelerating with every escalation, impacting supply chains as well as food and fuel prices alike.
In an interview with MBN, Dr. Abeer Etefa, spokesperson for the United Nations World Food Program, outlines a troubling picture of the current situation and warns of a global wave of hunger that could worsen if these crises are not quickly contained.
How do you assess the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz? And do the heightened security risks to shipping pose a threat to food supplies?
This conflict has dual humanitarian consequences: an immediate impact on millions of people in countries affected by the conflict—many of whom are already facing prolonged crises—alongside widening ripple effects globally, as supply chains are disrupted and food and fuel prices rise worldwide. Hundreds of thousands of people in affected countries are slipping day by day into deeper levels of food insecurity.
The world is experiencing the largest disruption in supply chains since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in early 2022, and the impact on global hunger will be significant. According to estimates by the World Food Program, an additional 45 million people could be pushed into food insecurity if the crisis continues and oil prices remain high. The total number of people suffering from hunger globally could rise to 363 million, surpassing the previous record of 349 million at the start of the war in Ukraine.
The World Food Programme is working to adapt rapidly to ensure the continued movement of humanitarian shipments worldwide, by identifying alternative routes and new transportation solutions to sustain this vital humanitarian work.
However, this crisis is expected to significantly increase operational costs at a time when the program is already facing a severe funding shortfall. It is essential to contain the impact of this conflict before needs escalate to an unmanageable level. The repercussions of the conflict on the global economy—including rising oil and energy prices and disruptions to shipping routes—will lead to increased hunger worldwide in 2026.
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Which countries are most affected by disruptions to food supply chains in the region?
Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable due to their heavy reliance on food and fuel imports. Estimates indicate increases in food insecurity affecting 21% in West and Central Africa, 17% in East and Southern Africa, and 24% in Asia.
Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa are entering the season while fertilizer prices are rising sharply, which means food prices are likely to continue increasing through 2027. Reports from countries such as Sudan and Myanmar indicate long fuel queues, while other countries have begun imposing fuel rationing. Sudan imports 80% of its wheat needs, making current price levels a serious threat that could push more households into hunger.
In Somalia, which is already suffering from severe drought, prices of basic commodities have risen by at least 20% since the start of the conflict in the Gulf. Fuel prices have also increased significantly since February and are expected to continue rising. Both Somalia and Sudan are experiencing high levels of food insecurity and have faced famine in recent years.
Afghanistan is also experiencing disruptions to supply chains, including Iran’s recent ban on food and agricultural exports, which has already begun driving prices higher. If the ban continues, it is likely to lead to shortages of essential goods—starting in border areas and gradually spreading across the country as supplies decline.
Is there a crisis in shipping costs due to international maritime routes?
Major global shipping routes are facing significant disruptions. As the conflict escalates, a rare “dual choke point” situation has emerged:
- In the Strait of Hormuz, vessels face high security risks, direct targeting, and operational restrictions
- In Bab al-Mandab, security threats and rising insurance costs are causing delays and forcing ships to reroute
The World Food Program has recorded a 15–20% increase in shipping costs, along with delays caused by rerouting vessels. If this situation continues, it will lead to substantial operational costs and delays in delivering life-saving food assistance.
How is the war in Lebanon threatening people’s access to food and basic needs?
In Lebanon—where the program was among the first to activate an immediate response to the escalation—the number of displaced people is increasing day by day.
From the very first hours, the World Food Program has been on the ground providing:
- hot meals
- ready-to-eat food rations
- fresh bread for families in shelters
as well as cash assistance for displaced families outside shelters to help them meet their urgent food needs.
Within just two weeks, the program reached 230,000 people through a combination of food and cash assistance, and distributed more than one million hot meals. Over the next three months, the program requires $72.5 million to meet the growing humanitarian needs in Lebanon.
The program is also responding to displacement from Lebanon into Syria, where thousands have returned. It is providing food assistance at border points to families as they move.
Is there currently a food crisis in Iran after the war entered its first month?
In Iran, the program’s operations supporting Afghan refugees in the east of the country continue with minimal disruption. Reports indicate an increase in families returning to camps. The program is monitoring population movements and food price trends, as well as their impact on food security for refugees, while working with local and international partners and food security programs as needed.
The program is also working to identify alternative and complementary supply routes, including through Turkey, to ensure access to the most vulnerable Afghan refugees if necessary.
However, the program is concerned that escalation could push Afghans in Iran to return. Given the limited funding for operations in Afghanistan, a large wave of returnees—combined with the impact of recent tensions with Pakistan—could drive humanitarian needs beyond the program’s current capacity.
Without predictable access, protected infrastructure, and stable funding, recent gains in food security across the region could quickly reverse, with potentially severe humanitarian consequences.
Does the World Food Program have contingency plans to address worsening food crises in the region?
The program is working to rapidly adapt to logistical challenges. For example, to ensure continued delivery of aid to Afghanistan, it is activating the Lapis Lazuli Corridor, which connects Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea, and Turkmenistan to Afghanistan. This route is a vital alternative, but it requires more time and significantly higher costs.
Cash assistance is also being used where markets are still functioning, including in Lebanon and within Iran, to meet urgent food needs. However, in-kind food assistance remains essential. The program continues to rely on transit routes through Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan, as well as land corridors, to mitigate supply chain disruptions.
The program also depends on fully operational Egyptian ports and the Suez Canal, which remains a key logistical hub for the region.
Do people in Gaza still face severe food shortages?
In Gaza, families remain highly vulnerable to hunger. Since the escalation began, border closures have led to a sharp increase in food prices. Although access to southern Gaza was quickly restored, prices remain high, and there is still no direct access through crossings to the northern part of the territory. Families are struggling to afford vegetables, protein, and dairy products.
To maintain food assistance for more than one million people in Gaza, the program requires a steady flow of goods from Jordan, Israel, and Egypt. This includes both humanitarian food aid and commercial goods to ensure that markets remain supplied with fresh food.
