Ground Game

The Marines are arriving. The 82nd Airborne is next. And Washington still has not decided what it is doing.

The options on the table now include striking Iran’s main oil terminal, seizing a disputed Gulf island, or reopening Hormuz by force. Meanwhile, a parallel diplomatic track is opening in Islamabad, and Vice President JD Vance may be heading to Pakistan or Turkey to meet Iranian officials. Iran is communicating through intermediaries. Iran is also still fighting.

Also, this week in the Agenda, an MBN investigation into the latest events in Iraq. And a warning from the UN World Food Program: 45 million more people worldwide are sliding toward hunger, and the disruption to global supply chains is the worst since COVID-19.

Mustafa Saadoon, Ghassan Taqi, and Ahmed Elimy contributed to the Agenda this week. 

WASHINGTON SIGNALS

Planning vs. Approval

As U.S. ground troops head for the region, the Pentagon has presented the White House with several options: striking Kharg Island (Iran’s main oil export terminal), hitting Abu Musa (a disputed Gulf island with strategic positioning), securing uranium stockpiles, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump has yet to make his intentions known.

A Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer told me that U.S. officials do not view current contacts with Iran as meaningful negotiations, describing Washington as entering “a more aggressive phase” of coordination with Israel to degrade Iran’s missile capabilities.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on March 27 that objectives are being met without ground troops and that the operation should be measured in “weeks, not months.” That may be intended to reassure Americans that there will be no Iraq-style invasion. It still leaves room for weeks of escalation.

The internal divide is real. Pentagon officials told senators in closed-door briefings that the first six days cost $11.3 billion, a figure that excludes the pre-strike military buildup and replacement of lost equipment, according to Democratic Sen. Chris Coons. The Treasury Department and the White House National Economic Council are warning that a closed Strait of Hormuz risks prolonged high prices for American consumers. Presidential advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita want Trump to declare victory and exit, according to Reuters. Defense Secretary Hegseth is defending a $200 billion war request before Congress. One senior official describes Vice President Vance as “skeptical, worried about success, he just opposes the war.”

Lawmakers from both parties, following those briefings, have expressed concern about the lack of a clear strategy and exit plan. Votes on war powers are being debated on Capitol Hill.

Trump boosts a “hit Iran HARD” segment one night, then postpones strikes on Iranian power plants five days later, citing “very good and productive talks.” Iran publicly denies that those talks are happening.

The buildup is real. Whether it is leverage or execution, Washington has yet to decide.

SCOOP

Iraq: The Forgotten Front

While the world watches Hormuz, a quieter crisis is unfolding in Iraq. In one week: Militias occupied an Iraqi Army hospital, Iranian commanders were killed in a Baghdad neighborhood, and the Iraqi government quietly surrendered military authority to factions it cannot control.

The only conclusion: Iraq is being undermined by this war.

The Prison

Intelligence officials in Baghdad are tracking an escalating threat: a potential mass break at Cropper Prison, where 5,500 ISIS detainees classified as “highly dangerous” are watching the war unfold next door.

The prison sits adjacent to Camp Victory, the U.S. base that Iran-aligned factions have been shelling with rockets and drones. Each time a projectile lands, detainees chant “Allahu Akbar.” An Interior Ministry officer told MBN that during a mid-Ramadan interrogation, a senior detainee said he expected to be freed “at any moment” if a rocket hits the main gate.

Security officials know this scenario. In 2013, a coordinated assault on Abu Ghraib allowed hundreds of al-Qaeda detainees to escape. Many joined what became ISIS. Within months, the group controlled one-third of Iraq. A source in the prime minister’s office confirmed to MBN that intelligence indicates inmates are actively discussing how to exploit the shelling. A National Operations Center source told MBN that current security procedures do not match the scale of the threat. Researcher Haider al-Saadi warned that corrupt guards have previously facilitated mobile phone smuggling, connecting inmates to outside networks.

The U.S. is degrading Iran’s proxy network in Iraq. No one in Washington is briefing on what fills the vacuum if 5,500 ISIS fighters walk free.

The Hospital

Members of Kataib Hezbollah forcibly transferred four wounded fighters to the Iraqi Army medical facility at Al-Habbaniyah Air Base in Anbar, an Iraqi Army colonel stationed there told MBN. Military personnel were unable to remove the militia members or leave the facility. The risk was too high.

An airstrike on the facility subsequently killed seven Iraqi soldiers and wounded 13 others, the first time an Iraqi Army installation has been targeted in the current fighting.

Brigadier General Tahseen Al-Khafaji denied to MBN that faction members hide in military barracks. A senior State Department official told MBN separately that the Iraqi government has failed to provide location data for its non-combatant personnel to ensure their safety.

The Strike

An MBN investigation into the March 17 strike in Baghdad’s Jadriya neighborhood confirmed the death of a senior Iranian figure known only as “Abdullah,” identified as the deputy head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Iraqi operations. The targeted house served as a coordination center linking the IRGC, Iraqi militias including Kataib Hezbollah and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and other Iraqi factions.

A local resident told MBN that the house appeared to be a civilian advisory office but was hosting “suspicious activity and tinted vehicles.” Interior Ministry sources confirmed that five Revolutionary Guard bodies were transported to Iran via the Al-Mundhiriya crossing.

The Order

The Ministerial Council for National Security has authorized all military units, including the Popular Mobilization Forces, to respond to attacks on their positions without central command approval. An Iraqi official and council member confirmed the directive to MBN.

Previously, every Iraqi military unit required approval from the Joint Operations Command before any response. That requirement is gone.

A source close to Prime Minister al-Sudani said the order was issued “reluctantly,” under intense internal pressure from Iran-aligned factions inside the council. Nominally, the government remains in charge. But the militias now hold the trigger.

DIPLOMATIC SIGNALS

Islamabad Gambit

While Defense Secretary Hegseth describes the campaign as one of the most decisive military operations “in recorded history,” a parallel track is opening 7,000 miles away.

Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt met in Islamabad on March 29 and 30, convened by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. No U.S. or Israeli representatives were present. Dar announced Pakistan would be “honored to host and facilitate meaningful talks between the two sides for a comprehensive and lasting settlement.” China has signaled full support for Pakistan’s mediation efforts, calling for immediate peace talks.

A former Bahraini diplomat told MBN that Gulf officials were “surprised” Washington put forward a ceasefire plan at all, given reports that Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered a 48-hour military blitz specifically to preempt the U.S. diplomatic timeline, underscoring that Israel intends to finish the war, not negotiate its end. A senior Trump administration official offered a harder read: Trump is prepared to escalate with “unprecedented force” if Iran does not accept what Washington calls “the reality of its battlefield position.”

Iran has formally rejected the U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal, which demands dismantlement of nuclear installations, transfer of enriched uranium to the IAEA, missile program restrictions, an end to support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and recognition of Hormuz as a free maritime corridor in exchange for full sanctions relief.

Tehran’s counteroffer directly contradicts the last point. Iran is insisting on formal recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait, not its reopening as a free corridor. An anonymous U.S. official privately dismissed the demand as “ridiculous and unrealistic.”

A senior Trump administration official told me the White House is exploring a possible trip by Vice President Vance to Pakistan or Turkey to meet Iranian officials, but stressed: “Nothing is locked in yet.” Any such meeting requires Washington to announce a temporary halt to strikes. Iranian President Pezeshkian, who previously complained that U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 came while “we were treading the path of diplomatic negotiations,” has said that the contradiction of “talking while being bombed” has shattered trust.

The Islamabad meeting represents regional powers creating diplomatic channels that Washington and Tehran cannot find on their own. The gap between Hegseth’s maximalist rhetoric and Iran’s demand for sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz suggests that the divide between the sides remains wide.

GULF WATCH

Trapped, Attacked, and Furious

The Gulf states did not ask for this war. They were not told it was coming. And now Washington is asking them to help pay for it.

On March 6, UAE Presidential Adviser Anwar Gargash demanded Iranian reparations and called Tehran “the primary threat to Gulf security.” The GCC invoked mutual defense. The official position held.

Behind closed doors, the language shifted.

A former Saudi diplomat told MBN that Iran had crossed every line with its neighbors. “At first, we defended them and pushed back against war,” he said. “But once they started targeting us directly, that changed. At that point, they became an adversary.” On the same day, former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal told CNN without hesitation: “This is Netanyahu’s war.”

The sense of frustration is now being directed at Washington. A senior Kuwaiti adviser told MBN the calculus has become painfully clear. “We’re being attacked because we host your bases,” he said. “Our economies are taking the hit. Public anger is rising. And now we’re being asked to help pay for a war that made us targets.”

The numbers behind that frustration are stark. According to an analysis by JINSA (Jewish Institute for National Security of America), Bahrain may have expended up to 87 percent of its Patriot interceptor stocks. Kuwait and the UAE have burned through roughly 75 percent each. Yet the Trump administration is reportedly stonewalling Gulf requests to replenish supplies, even as the Americans fire $4 million interceptors against $20,000 Iranian drones.

The UAE’s Gargash has since hardened his country’s position: Abu Dhabi will mediate only if Iran first stops its attacks on them. A former Bahraini diplomat told MBN that Gulf officials were “surprised” Washington put forward a ceasefire plan at all, raising questions about whether the U.S. and Israel are even aligned on the diplomatic track.

Quote of the Day

 I think that we all have to be quite unfortunately pessimistic about where this is going… I think, unfortunately, we are in for war for some time to come. 

Wendy Sherman, Former Deputy Secretary of State, March 2, 2026

FEATURED CONVERSATION

Hunger Front

The war in Iran is creating a global food security emergency that extends far beyond the battlefield. In an interview with MBN, Abeer Atifa, spokesperson for the UN World Food Programme, warns that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is pushing an additional 45 million people into food insecurity. Global hunger could reach 363 million people, surpassing the record set at the start of the war in Ukraine.

Shipping costs have risen 15-20 percent. The WFP is scrambling to find alternative routes through Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan. But the operational math is brutal: Somalia’s food prices, for example, are up 20 percent since February. Sudan, which imports 80 percent of its wheat, faces long fuel queues. Afghanistan is already feeling the effects of Iran’s export bans.

“The world is witnessing the largest supply chain disruption since COVID-19,” Atifa says. “The impact on global hunger will be significant.”

The WFP needs $72.5 million for Lebanon alone in the next three months. With funding shortfalls and rising costs, the gap between need and capacity is widening.

Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are entering the agricultural season as fertilizer prices rise sharply, which means food prices will continue to rise until 2027. Countries like Sudan and Myanmar are reporting long fuel queues, while other countries have begun imposing fuel rationing. Sudan imports 80 percent of its wheat needs, making current prices threaten to push more families toward hunger.

In Somalia, which is suffering from severe drought, prices of basic commodities have risen by at least 20 percent since the conflict began.

For the full conversation, click here.