Welcome back to the MBN Iran Briefing.
Another Iranian leader is dead. Millions in the Gulf could lose their access to water. And the world waits for yet another U.S. deadline.
Plus some home news: MBN journalists Randa Jebai, Sam KC, and Ala’a Suleiman are finalists for Webby Award. Check out their report that earned this recognition: Lebanon’s First Anti-Slavery Case, which exposed Lebanon’s first-ever criminal slavery case, filed by an Ethiopian domestic worker against her former employer and recruitment agency. If you want to support them, vote here, under “Belonging & Inclusion.”
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And don’t forget to check in for our Iran Briefing podcast. In the latest episode, we look at the internet blackout in Iran and how the country has a ‘virtual’ supreme leader. Watch in English, Arabic, or Persian.
Quote of the Week
“These executions are part of the Islamic Republic’s strategy of survival, waging war against its own people under the shadow of external conflict.”
— Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, Director of Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO)
U.S. President Donald Trump at a press conference today. Photo: Reuters
TOP OF THE NEWS
A couple of big developments define the moment in this sixth week of the war.
President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on power plants and bridges expires tomorrow at 8:00 p.m. Eastern (3:30 a.m. Wednesday in Tehran).
On Monday, Israel killed Majid Khademi, head of intelligence for the IRGC. Referring to the leadership of the Islamic Republic, Israeli Defense Minister Katz said, “We will continue to hunt them down one by one.” Khademi was himself the replacement for a predecessor killed by Israel in June 2025.
There is talk of a possible 45-day ceasefire, but there is good reason for skepticism. No concrete details have emerged and time is short.
U.S. and Israeli jets struck Iran’s petrochemical industry, steel plants, and other infrastructure on Monday, while Iran hit towns across central and northern Israel and Gulf oil refineries.
And in the last eight days alone, Iran has executed 10 people described by the Norway-based group Iran Human Rights as political prisoners. Four were hanged in connection with the January protests and six on charges of membership in the outlawed MEK opposition group. Today, Ali Fahim, a young protester arrested during demonstrations on Jan. 8, was hanged after being convicted of involvement in an attack on a Revolutionary Guard Basij base during the protests.
Smoke rises over Azadi Square in Tehran following a strike. Photo: Reuters
Four Scenarios for Tomorrow’s Deadline
The next 24 hours are crucial. Here are four scenarios for how things could play out once the deadline passes.
1- The U.S. attacks. America hits power plants and bridges, as President Trump said on Truth Social over the weekend. How far will the Americans go?
The U.S. has already struck bridges. The B1 highway bridge connecting Tehran to Karaj was hit on April 2. A U.S. defense official told Axios that more bridges are likely to be targeted. In response, the IRGC is said to have identified several bridges in American-allied nations as potential retaliatory targets. Kuwait’s desalination plants were hit yesterday.
Perhaps a more consequential question is what comes after the first wave. Russia has been evacuating staff from the Bushehr nuclear plant in stages since the war began. Rosatom CEO Alexei Likhachev confirmed on Saturday that 198 people had departed by bus for the Armenian border, citing the current “undesirable scenario” near the nuclear plant. According to Fars news agency, one member of the plant’s security personnel was killed when it was hit on Saturday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed that strikes on the Bushehr plant “expose the entire region to a serious risk of radioactive contamination.”
2- Iran escalates first. Rather than waiting for the deadline, Tehran moves before Tuesday to force Washington’s hand. The IRGC has already indicated it is planning what it calls a “new Persian Gulf order” and that “the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its former state, especially for the U.S. and Israel.”
A preemptive strike on a major Gulf asset, or a significant Houthi operation in the Red Sea coordinated with Tehran, would likely produce a U.S. response regardless of where the clock stands.
3- Another extension. The diplomatic track is narrow but has not collapsed. Indirect negotiations have inched forward. Considering the rhetoric emerging from all sides, the odds are not high for a deal within the next day. Iran has pushed back against the notion of a temporary ceasefire. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said that Tehran is “calling for an end to the war and for preventing its recurrence.”
4- A partial opening through Oman. Oman’s foreign ministry said it met with Iranian officials on Saturday to discuss “possible options for ensuring the smooth flow of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.” A negotiated humanitarian passage framework brokered through Muscat is a possible near-term exit ramp that both sides can claim as a victory. Iran has already shown it can calibrate the blockade, exempting Iraq and allowing passage for individual tankers. Formalizing that selective approach is not the same as reopening, but it may be enough to give Tuesday’s deadline a soft landing.
Ras Al-Khair Power and Desalination Plant in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest desalination plant. Photo: Reuters
Water: The Crisis Beneath the Crisis
Iran entered this war already in the grip of a water emergency. After five consecutive years of drought and years of unsustainable water use, Iran was moving toward what experts call “water bankruptcy” before the first strike on Feb. 28. As I reported in a previous edition of this newsletter, when rainfall was 40 percent below the long-term average late last year, reservoirs supplying Tehran fell to roughly 12 percent of capacity. Last November, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the government had “no other choice” but to relocate the country’s capital because of “extreme pressure” on water, land and infrastructure. The war has made this crisis significantly worse, and exported it across the region.
On the Gulf side, the vulnerability is structural. All six GCC nations critically rely on desalination plants drawing seawater from the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, and some three-quarters of those plants are integrated power and water production facilities, meaning freshwater output can be interrupted not only by strikes on the water treatment units but also by attacking the energy plants and grid connections supplying them. Cut the power, cut the water. Sunday’s Iranian drone strikes put a Kuwaiti desalination station out of service, according to Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity.
The asymmetry is significant. Iran sources just three percent of its drinking water from desalination, relying instead on groundwater, rivers and reservoirs. This is a weapon Iran can use against the Gulf that cannot easily be turned against it. Experts warn that if desalination plants in regional countries are disrupted, millions of people might have to relocate.
The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani meeting Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman last week in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Photo: Reuters
ESSENTIAL READING: THE WAR AND THE GULF STATES
Five reads on the Gulf states: bombed, angry, and already positioning for the morning after.
“Gulf States Opposed War With Iran. Most Are Now Pushing to Keep the Fight Going”— Times of Israel. Four senior Gulf officials say that despite opposing the war before it started, most Gulf capitals are now urging Washington to continue striking, with one insisting the war continue until Iran’s missile and drone manufacturing sites are destroyed, accepting that Iran will retain the know-how to restock but arguing that “generational damage” is sufficient.
“Can Gulf States Really Stay Out?” — Responsible Statecraft. Claims that hosting U.S. bases makes genuine Gulf neutrality structurally impossible, as Iran treats the base infrastructure as a legitimate target regardless of what Gulf governments say publicly, and that this exposes a fundamental contradiction in the Gulf security model that will outlast the war.
“Gulf States in the Crossfire” — Middle East Council on Global Affairs. Iran has targeted the UAE by volume more aggressively than any other country including Israel, with strikes tied to Abu Dhabi’s Abraham Accords membership and its alleged targeting assistance to the US. From a Doha-based think tank.
“Why Gulf States Should Reject Zarif’s Terms” — Foreign Policy. Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif published a peace overture in Foreign Affairs. This piece argues that it’s an attempt to cut a narrow U.S.-Iran deal that leaves the Gulf states, who absorbed the bulk of Iranian retaliation, out of the room.
“The Iran War Is Uncovering the Weakness in U.S.-Gulf Ties” — Carnegie Endowment. The war has forged rare collective Gulf anger at Iran, the U.S., and Israel simultaneously, but Saudi-UAE divergence over the Abraham Accords means the unity is unlikely to survive the endgame.
Andres Ilves
Andres Ilves is Iran Editor and Senior Adviser at MBN. His career as a journalist and writer includes two decades at the BBC and Radio Free Europe.
