Between Iraq and a Dry Place

Welcome back to the MBN Iran Briefing.

Iran’s neighbor Iraq goes to the polls, the dams dry up outside Tehran, bread prices spike and why you might soon find yourself within range of an Iranian missile. Plus, Halloween parties à la iranienne. And to close us off, a new section called 4×4: The most interesting things I’ve found in Persian-language media this week.

Send tips, suggestions, or questions to me at ailves@mbn-news.com. If you were forwarded the newsletter, please subscribe. Read me in Arabic here.

IRAN’S NEAR ABROAD

Purple Ink, black eye?

In case your idea of Iraqi voters has them brandishing fingers dipped in purple ink to indicate that they cast a ballot, you can file that image away. Tuesday’s nationwide vote will be the country’s first since 2005 featuring facial recognition and other electronic authentication systems.

The sixth parliamentary election in Iraq’s post-Saddam history is likely to be a watershed moment for more than the purple ink industry: Iran’s sway over Iraq will, to read the tea leaves, take a hit as well.

The signs aren’t good for Tehran. Major Iran-backed militias in Iraq declined to intervene in the 2025 12-day war between Israel, the U.S., and Iran. That suggests these groups are becoming more autonomous.

Iraq is less dependent on Iran economically than it used to be. Iran’s natural gas exports to Iraq dropped by 40% between April and August 2025 due to stepped-up U.S. sanctions and Baghdad’s push to diversify energy sources.

So what’s Iran’s playbook heading into next week? Iran’s main goal is to maintain its leverage over the governing Shi’a Coordination Framework (CF).

The Coordination Framework is marked by rivalry between three key figures: Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq’s former prime minister who commands the old guard. He has deep ties to Tehran. Hadi al-Amiri anchors the paramilitary side and acts as Iran’s closest operative within the bloc. Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, the current prime minister, is the technocrat bridging factions. He’s acceptable to Iran and focused on holding the coalition together.

All three are competing for influence as a boycott of the election organized by Muqtada al-Sadr in a power play dampens turnout, boosting the CF’s chances while sowing doubts about legitimacy. Al-Sadr is in a much weaker position than he was during the last elections in 2021, and the Shi’a cleric’s Sadrist Movement currently holds no seats in parliament. The CF’s strength is in its grip on ministries and control of energy ties with Tehran.

Tehran wants to have a say in the formation of the next government. The mostly Shi’a paramilitary forces have more autonomy than before, but still want government funding, legal protection, and a say in who sits in cabinet.

Economically, Iran wants to get around sanctions to keep trade and energy flowing over the border.

Prime Minister Sudani’s talk of a phased U.S. withdrawal tracks with Iranian interests.

Tehran’s top risk: losing the coalition’s ‘veto power’ to rivals. The veto power stems from holding enough seats to block any initiatives not to the CF’s liking. CF looks headed for a significant drop in the number of seats it holds. If the CF holds on to power, Iran keeps its edge. A sudden sweep by nationalists cutting out Iran is a low-probability risk, but cracks in CF unity make it more possible now than during any election since 2005. Most likely is a fragmented parliament, months-long coalition talks, and Iran’s allies playing defense as kingmakers rather than offense.

Bottom line for Tehran, it is playing defense. It aims to keep Iraq “in the family,” not expand control. Top risk: its own allies splinter as Iraqis grow hostile to all foreign influence.

What the U.S. wants: As a curtain-raising analysis by the Atlantic Council put it on Monday, “The Trump administration will expect the new Iraqi government to [sustain] a constructive, strategic dialogue between Washington and Baghdad on security, political, and economic issues—no matter how uncomfortable and difficult—hold[ing] the best approach for advancing US security interests in Iraq and the region.”

TOP OF THE NEWS

Parched in Tehran

Feel the urge to go hiking in Iran? The Walking in Iran website has plenty of ideas for leisurely strolls, among them a walk at the Amir Kabir dam just north of Tehran. As the site tells us, “the blue waters of the lake have created a very beautiful and eye-catching scene.”

Not now, though. Amir Kabir is more of a puddle these days. This major source of water for the Iranian capital is at 8% of its storage capacity.  The 10 million residents of Tehran are about to go dry – so to speak.

Iranian media has dire predictions for what it calls Day Zero, the day the trickle stops: “Urban drinking water supplies run out and severe rationing is imposed: tap water is only available from public distribution points for a few hours a day or week (e.g. 25-50 liters per capita per day); bathing, washing, and farming cease, schools and industries close, and long lines form for bottled water.”

“This dam in Tehran has only two weeks’ worth of water reserves,” screamed a headline on Sunday in Tabnak, a semi-official website.

A rare convergence of factors has left Tehran’s main dam nearly empty: a record-breaking six consecutive years of drought, this year’s near-total lack of rainfall, over-extraction from reservoirs, and decades of mismanaged water planning.

Urban sprawl, population growth, and chronic delays in infrastructure upgrades have all worsened the problem, turning what was once a cyclical shortfall into a structural and immediate crisis.

There’s been an emergency meeting involving the minister of energy and the governor of Tehran, and city residents are being asked to reduce water consumption.

Tehran’s water shortage is turning into a political headache. Watch out for angry crowds, finger-pointing, and senior officials looking exposed. If the crisis drags on, don’t be surprised to see reformist rivals grabbing the spotlight and elite infighting breaking out.

DIGEST

Inflation Nation

Prices jumped sharply in the past year, according to the latest government figures that put inflation at 48.6 percent year-on-year. Potatoes now cost 82% more than this time last year, bread and cereals are up 98%, beans have shot up 255%, devastating household budgets across the country: nearly 70% of the minimum wage now goes towards a basic monthly food basket.

“Food poverty has become official: Bread and potatoes –- the people’s new diet!” exclaimed one headline on Sunday.

There are worries about malnutrition. As one report put it, officials “have confirmed a sharp decline in the consumption of protein, dairy, meat, fruit, and vegetables, and warned of high rates of diet-related deaths and the difficulty of reducing malnutrition as food prices continue to rise.”

Government officials blame drought and sanctions. Economic analysts repeatedly point to persistent mismanagement, financial opacity, and the outsize power of parastatal conglomerates. In practice, price controls have failed to slow the surge, private and public markets alike are rationing basic staples, and a growing share of Iranians live below the poverty line. Some projections suggest inflation might cross 60% by March 2026.

As food prices soar, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s team and key MPs, especially those who oversee social policy, poverty relief, and food security, are coming under criticism..

Missile Games

In 2017, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei set a self-imposed limit on Iran developing missiles with a range greater than 2,000 kilometers. He recently announced the lifting of that cap. According to MBN’s anchor Arabic language network Alhurra, Tehran now plans to upgrade its arsenal and produce missiles capable of striking inside Europe.

Drawing on exclusive interviews and opposition sources, Alhurra reports that Iranian lawmakers and IRGC officials tout their intent to develop missiles capable of striking any “necessary target.” Recent upgrades allow missiles like Qadr and Khorramshahr (“Kheibar”) to reach up to 4,000 kilometers (that would be Berlin and Rome, for example, if launched from Iran), with future variants potentially exceeding 5,000 kilometers (that would put London and Paris in range).

Alhurra interviewed opposition figures who said this is all meant to pressure Europe into easing sanctions rather than provoke direct conflict. Technical experts caution Iran still lacks true intercontinental capability. But its growing arsenal, including Emad, Sejjil, Ashura, the Shahab series, and advanced drone technology, is a big step forward for Iran.

FOUR BY FOUR

In this new section, I’ll share four of the most eyecatching stories

from different Persian-language outlets in the past week.

Arrogant, moi? In case you don’t already have it marked in your calendar, the beginning of November each year is when the Iranian regime celebrates the “National Day of Combating Global Arrogance.” The date actually marks three different anniversaries of significance to the Islamic Republic, the most recognizable one internationally being the day in 1979 that the U.S. Embassy in Tehran was stormed and hostages taken. The reformist-leaning paper Etemad quoted from a speech by Iranian parliament speaker Qalibaf on the occasion: “Today, they no longer plot from inside embassies, they do this in the media and cyberspace, and they try to impose on the minds of our youth by any means that no progress will ever happen without dependence on the West and except under the domination of the West.” See what happened on Halloween in Iran, below 😉.

Compatriot, please share your eyeliner: If you’re a hoarder, Iran isn’t the place for you. Especially if your cache of choice is wheat, rice, sugar, flour or meat. Hardline newspaper Keyhan reported on the announcement by the head of the country’s Economic Security Police that 84,000 tons of essential goods had recently been discovered. Key stockpiled items included medicine, cigarettes, and cosmetics. The article helpfully quoted the official appealing to the civic-minded: “Dear compatriots can share their news and information about hoarders, warehouses, and places where goods are hoarded by calling 096300.” One for your speed dial.

Cross border: Tehran is looking at empowering provincial governments to take a greater role in cross-border matters: a significant amount of trade flows through the sixteen (out of 31) provinces that border on neighboring countries. The economy- and finance-focused Donya-e-Eqtesad (“World of Economics”) covers this initiative, reporting on a meeting attended by Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian to consider “strategies for maximum exploitation of the economic capacities of the borders, removing administrative and legal obstacles, strengthening regional cooperation with neighboring countries, and the sustainable supply of basic goods.”

Never mind: Well-known reformist politician Seyyed Mustafa Tajzadeh, who once even served as deputy interior minister, has been in notorious Evin Prison since 2022 for anti-regime activities. Reformist daily Shargh reports that he’d been released to attend his brother’s funeral and then abruptly rearrested and prevented from going to the funeral after all.

FAIT DIVERS

The Calligraphy Pen Is Mightier

As in most Muslim societies, calligraphy holds a special place in Iran, where it’s considered one of the highest forms of art. Tehran has turned into an open-air calligraphy gallery thanks to the “Naghmeh-haye Markab” (Melodies of Ink) campaign, which installed 180 billboards of Persian calligraphy across the capital’s highways, bridges, and neighborhoods. With works from 50 acclaimed Iranian calligraphy artists, the initiative covers nearly 5.7 million square meters. Run by the Beautification Organization of Tehran Municipality, the campaign aims to reconnect the city’s residents with Iran’s artistic heritage—showcasing classical poetry alongside masterful calligraphy and illuminating designs. It’s part of a broader effort to use public art for civic and cultural revitalization.

Halloween Hijinks

Halloween is banned by the Iranian regime to protect “cultural, religious, and social values” against this “Western cultural invasion” incompatible with Islamic norms and Iranian traditions. Well, tell that to the wild partiers who not only host private parties and underground events but could even be seen in the streets. You couldn’t escape the photos of revelers on Instagram and X, often to the tune of Michael Jackson’s Thriller.