Welcome back to the MBN Iran Briefing.
The ceasefire that began on Apr. 8 has now lasted longer than the war that preceded it. So how did the U.S.-China summit affect the situation around Iran? Depends on whom you ask. Washington has rejected Iran’s counterproposal. The diplomatic track is stalling. It’s been reported that President Trump has just called off an attack on Iran he’d planned for tomorrow.
Meanwhile, it’s official: Iran has executed more people in one year than any other country in the past 44 years.
And there’s been a drone attack on the only nuclear power plant in the Arab world.
Find out more below.
Share your thoughts, analysis and predictions with me at ailves@mbn-news.com. If you were forwarded the MBN Iran Briefing, please subscribe. Read me in Arabic here, or on the flagship MBN Arabic-language and English-language news sites.
And don’t forget to check out the latest Iran Briefing podcast. In this edition I’m joined by MBN’s own Leila Bazzi and Holly Dagres, curator of the Iranist Substack and a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, as we look at the human impact of the war on young Iranians and Lebanese and the reactions of Gen Z.
Quote of the Week
“One of Iran’s options in the event of another attack could be 90 percent enrichment. We will examine it in the parliament.”
– Ebrahim Rezaei, Spokesperson of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission
TOP OF THE NEWS
“There won’t be anything left of them.” Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump declared on his social media platform that Iran’s “Clock is Ticking,” adding that the country had better “get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE.” The post came after Iranian state media reported that Washington had rejected Tehran’s proposal and was repeating what Mehr News called “nuclear blackmail positions,” claiming that Iran had presented its proposal based on two-stage negotiations: first an end to the war, then talks about the nuclear issue. Another Iranian media report repeated Tehran’s five core conditions: full sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, a ceasefire across all fronts, and war reparations.
The gulf between the two sides’ positions remains wide. Iranian site Khabar Online reported that Iranian officials have continued to insist they will not participate in direct negotiations under threat or while the U.S. naval blockade remains in place, though indirect message exchanges through Pakistan continue. Trump’s national security advisers are due to meet tomorrow to weigh potential military action against Iran.
The latest. Tehran transmitted a revised 14-point text to Pakistani mediators today, in its latest response to Washington’s amendments to an earlier Iranian draft. The new document deliberately excludes nuclear issues, centering instead on the terms of a ceasefire and the specific guarantees Iran is demanding from Washington before any broader settlement can proceed. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed the exchange is ongoing. Asked whether Tehran could accept a two-decade freeze on uranium enrichment, Baghaei was unequivocal: The current negotiating track is about stopping the war and Iran’s stance on the nuclear issue is unchanged.
On Hormuz, he said that Iran won’t negotiate over its control of the strait, describing it as a matter of coastal sovereignty shared with Oman, with technical consultations between the two countries continuing. The 14-point text is itself a reworked version of a proposal Trump previously rejected. The reformist daily Khorasan reported that Tehran has reached the conclusion that renewed confrontation is imminent and unavoidable, and has drawn up a fresh list of targets designed to deliver a shock comparable to the opening strikes of the war.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi. Photo: Reuters
A nuclear plant targeted for the first time. Yesterday brought the first drone strike on the UAE’s sole nuclear power plant, located at Barakah. Three drones entered UAE airspace from the country’s western border with Saudi Arabia. Two were intercepted by Emirati air defences. The third struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah nuclear plant, sparking a fire.
In a post on X, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that it had been informed by the UAE that radiation levels plant “remain normal and no injuries were reported,” adding that IAEA director general Rafael Grossi “reiterates [his] call for maximum military restraint near any [nuclear power plant] to avoid the danger of a nuclear accident.”
Dr. Anwar Mohammed Gargash, a senior Emirati official and long-serving foreign policy adviser to Abu Dhabi’s ruling family, posted on X that “whether carried out by the principal perpetrator or through one of its agents, [the targeting of the plant] represents a dangerous escalation and a dark scene that violates all international laws and norms.”
It was the first time the four-reactor, $20 billion plant – the only nuclear power plant in the Arab world – has been targeted since the war began. The UAE has hosted Israeli air defense personnel and has been repeatedly accused by Tehran of direct complicity in the war.
In a separate incident the same day, Saudi Arabia intercepted three further drones that had entered its airspace from Iraq, destroying all three.
No party claimed responsibility for either attack, and neither government publicly attributed them to a specific actor.
Read my colleague Abubakar Siddique’s piece about concerns over Iran’s retaliatory terror campaign.
Nooses being prepared for executions in Iran. Photo: Reuters
The execution toll. Amnesty International published its annual global executions report yesterday, and Iran dominates it. As Amnesty notes, the number of reported executions worldwide is at the highest level in forty-four years.
Iranian authorities are the main drivers behind the spike: Iran executed at least 2,159 people last year, more than double its 2024 figure and the highest recorded total in Iran since 1981 and the highest anywhere in the world since that year.
The figure dwarfs that for every other country on the list. Iran’s judiciary acknowledges that executions are taking place in 2026, as I’ve reported in this newsletter.
MBN Iran Briefing Podcast
Expert conversations unpacking the latest developments in Iran and how they are reshaping security, energy markets, and geopolitics across the Middle East.
THE BEIJING SUMMIT AND IRAN
President Trump announced after the summit that Chinese president Xi Jinping had pledged that China would not supply Iran with military equipment. Xi “said he’s not going to give military equipment…. That’s a big statement. (He) said that strongly,” Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity last week.
By contrast, China’s official take on Iran and the summit was rather tepid. “China encourages the U.S. and Iran to continue settling their differences and disputes through negotiation, including on the nuclear issue. China calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible on the basis of continued ceasefire,” said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. In another statement, the Chinese foreign ministry reiterated: “It is important to reopen the shipping lanes as soon as possible.”
The Iranian press declared victory. Headlined “Why didn’t Xi Jinping make concessions to Trump? America’s strategic defeat in the war with Iran,” an article in Fararu today notes that “Beijing refused to stop buying Iranian oil, which accounts for 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports.”
ESSENTIAL READING: THE 90 PERCENT THREAT
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization in Tehran. Photo: Reuters
“Iran threatens weapons-grade uranium enrichment as peace talks falter” — Euronews, May 2026. Ebraham Rezaei’s 80-percent enrichment threat (see Quote of the Week above) explained, with the full breakdown of the enrichment negotiating gap and the discrepancies between Iran’s verbal and written positions on uranium removal.
“Two Wars Later, Iran’s Nuclear Question Is Still on the Table” — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 2026. What does Iran have left and what will it do with it? Concludes Tehran may use Hormuz leverage as cover to rebuild underground, and explains why IAEA access has effectively collapsed.
“U.S. Negotiators Were Ill-Prepared for Serious Nuclear Talks With Iran” — Arms Control Association, April 2026. A post-mortem on pre-war talks. Iran offered to blend down its 60 percent stockpile; the U.S. rejected the idea and didn’t get into the mechanics of how any agreement would actually be monitored and enforced.
Andres Ilves
Andres Ilves is Iran Editor and Senior Adviser at MBN. His career as a journalist and writer includes two decades at the BBC and Radio Free Europe.
