All eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. and Iranian forces are just miles apart, increasing the probability of a misstep and a recourse to war. The Strait remains effectively closed to most commercial shipping traffic amid gridlock and the push-pull of Iran and the U.S. Although the Islamabad peace talks didn’t go well, none of the parties has given up. An extension of the ceasefire and another round of talks are possibly in the making. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. This followed the first-ever direct engagement between the two countries in more than 30 years.
MBN’s Iran Briefing Podcast team– Andres Ilves, Leila Bazzi and Matthew Kaminski – take a crack at untangling this convoluted situation. Check out the full episode.
Also in the mix: How China used its leverage to push for a ceasefire ever since the war started; why Iran is enlisting the help of foreign Shiite militias to patrol its streets; and who the nominees are that the ruling Shiite coalition in Iraq is considering as the next prime minister.
On the home front, Roya Hakakian, the distinguished Iranian-born journalist, author, and political commentator, has joined MBN to report on Iran’s activities across the Middle East.
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This Week On MBN
U.S. Hosts Historic Israel-Lebanon Talks
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon comes in the wake of the first-ever direct talks between Lebanon and Israel since 1993. A U.S. official told MBN’s Washington Bureau Chief Joe Kawly that the core objective of the meeting is balancing Israel’s long-term security with restoring full Lebanese sovereignty.
Read the article here and watch the video
Lebanon’s Old Fault Lines Reopened
An Israeli strike in a predominantly Christian neighborhood of Beirut shattered the illusion that Lebanon’s conflict is geographically contained, exposing deeper national fractures. Through personal reflection, Leila Bazzi, MBN’s Editor-in-Chief, traces the resurfacing of fear and sectarian mistrust in her MBN Magazine article. She argues that Lebanon now stands at a crossroads as it attempts to figure out the fundamental question: who controls the country’s decisions on war and peace.
Read the article here
Foreign Militias Help Keep Iran Quiet
Afghan Fatemiyoun militia and Iraqi armed factions are now deploying inside Iranian cities alongside the Islamic Revolutionary Guards and the Basij. Reports indicate Iraqi fighters are entering Iran disguised as aid convoys and religious visits. Analysts tell MBN’s Dalshad Hussein the shift signals fears of internal unrest or even a broader ground conflict.
Read the article here
No Diplomacy, No Decisive War
In an interview with MBN’s Editor-in-Chief Leila Bazzi, veteran ambassador Ryan Crocker warns that U.S.– Iran diplomacy was doomed from the start due to “zero common ground.” He argues Washington’s military buildup in the Strait of Hormuz signals pressure, not preparation for a full-scale war. Crocker highlights a region drifting toward temporary containment strategies rather than durable solutions.
Read the full interview here
China’s Back Stage Diplomacy
China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, made 26 phone calls to counterparts across the globe in the run-up to the April 7th ceasefire deal in the Iran war. MBN’s China Tracker editors Min Mitchell and Zhou Yu explain that Beijing’s many calls were a calculated focus on energy security and mediation leverage. The pattern of calls offers a rare, data-driven glimpse into how China quietly positioned itself as a central diplomatic broker.
Read the full article here and China Tracker here
Iraq’s Political Deadlock Nears Resolution
Iraq’s ruling Shiite Coordination Framework is increasingly coalescing around Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani for a second term. Internal divisions persist, particularly over Nouri al-Maliki’s stalled bid, weakened by both domestic resistance and explicit U.S. opposition. MBN’s Ghassan Taqi reports that alternative candidates, including Haider al-Abadi, remain in play but trail significantly behind Sudani in support.
Read the article here
Damascus and Kurds Exchange Prisoners
A new prisoner exchange between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian government took place in the north-eastern province of Al-Hasakah. The United States is backing the deal, aimed at securing the release of all political prisoners and detainees. Reporting by Jwan Ibrahim captures cautious optimism while underscoring that the issue remains unresolved.
watch the video here
Closer
“Hormuz is an Asian energy problem. Bab el-Mandeb is a European one. If that goes, our supply chains don’t slow down. They stop.”
–Senior European Intelligence Office to MBN Agenda
