As attention centers on the fate of a second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations, an internal struggle among Iran’s power centers is intensifying, with direct implications for efforts to reach a deal to end the war.
With talks stalled and uncertainty growing over whether Tehran will send negotiators to the next round in Islamabad, the expanding influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is raising fresh questions about who holds decision-making authority in Iran and whether civilian officials can speak for the regime.
During the recent war, the influence of the IRGC increased at the expense of other state institutions. All strategic decisions — most notably the issue of negotiations with Washington — have become, in one way or another, tied to IRGC commanders, often at the expense of diplomatic considerations.
“There’s clearly a political tug-of-war underway between factions within the Iranian government,” Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council, told Alhurra, adding that “this isn’t a clash between conservatives and moderates, per se. It is, instead, a clash within an IRGC that’s increasingly in control of the levers of power in Tehran.”
The IRGC moved to the forefront during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, particularly after the killing of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the succession of his son, Mojtaba, to the position.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader is widely understood to have come under pressure from the IRGC, given his close ties to current and former IRGC commanders, most notably Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to the current supreme leader.
Also prominent are IRGC Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi, who was appointed on the first day of the war following the killing of his predecessor in initial strikes, and Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who succeeded Ali Larijani.
In public, the negotiations are led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, but behind the scenes, the situation is entirely different.
“Iran’s leadership in wartime is not as it appears on paper. The president, the parliament speaker and the foreign minister are the faces seen by the outside world at press conferences, in Islamabad and on the X platform, yet none of them make the decisive decisions,” said Andres Ilves, director of strategic initiatives at the Middle East Broadcasting Networks and an Iran specialist.
“The men who make those decisions are Vahidi, Zolghadr and Rezaei — all veterans of the IRGC — and none of them holds an elected office,” Ilves added.
The growing influence of the IRGC likely means Iran will adopt a more confrontational approach, becoming less willing to make concessions in its talks with Washington and more inclined to continue military escalation across the region.
On the other hand, figures and institutions within the system still see engagement with Washington — even under difficult conditions — as a necessary option to ease economic and political pressures. However, their ability to influence remains limited amid the rising power of the IRGC.
Who will ultimately prevail remains unclear. In politics, “there are no permanent friendships and no permanent enmities, only permanent interests,” a well-known phrase attributed to former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
Berman believes there are “real differences” in how to deal with the United States, with more hardline factions viewing the situation as an opportunity for Tehran to buy time and test Washington without making substantive concessions.
“Until that balance is clarified, and the United States applies greater pressure to the regime as a whole to tilt the political scales, there’s no deal to be had,” Berman added.
The IRGC was established following Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution to defend the system, but over time it has expanded beyond its role as a military force. It now controls key sectors of Iran’s economy, oversees the country’s missile and nuclear programs, and exerts influence across nearly all branches of government.
However, recent developments following the war suggest the IRGC is no longer operating behind the scenes, but is increasingly emerging openly as the dominant force in Tehran.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Ghassan Taqi
A journalist specializing in Iraqi affairs, he has worked with the Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN) since 2015. He previously spent several years with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, as well as various Iraqi and Arab media outlets.
