The fractures within Iraq’s Shiite-led Coordination Framework are beginning to spill into public view following the parliamentary vote on Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s government, in a development that could reshape not only Shiite politics, but also the broader network of alliances inside parliament, the government, and potentially Iran’s influence in Iraq.
The Coordination Framework includes parties and armed factions with close political, security and ideological ties to Iran, most notably the Badr Organization, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Islamic Supreme Council, among others.
Sources within the alliance told Alhurra that two rival political camps are now emerging inside the coalition, which for years has served as the principal umbrella for Iraq’s Iran-aligned Shiite factions. The current split poses a significant challenge for Tehran, which has long viewed the Coordination Framework as its most important political vehicle in Iraq. A unified alliance had enabled Iran to maintain substantial influence over Iraqi decision-making across the government, parliament and security institutions.
According to the sources, disputes that were once managed behind closed doors turned into open polarization during negotiations over government formation. One camp is led by former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and includes Ammar al-Hakim, head of the Hikma Movement, Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali, as well as figures and factions that broke away from former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition.
The sources said the Sudani-aligned bloc has worked in recent months to build understandings with influential Sunni and Kurdish forces, including the Taqaddum party led by Mohammed al-Halbousi and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan headed by Bafel Talabani, in an effort to assemble a broad parliamentary coalition capable of supporting the government and preserving its balance inside the legislature.
In contrast, information obtained by Alhurra points to an undeclared alliance led by Maliki that includes factions that have withdrawn from Sudani’s coalition, the Badr Organization headed by Hadi al-Amiri, and other actors within the Coordination Framework, alongside Sunni forces including the Azm and Siyadah alliances.
The contours of the split became clearer after the National Contract bloc, linked to Popular Mobilization Forces chairman Faleh al-Fayyadh and holding 10 parliamentary seats, as well as the Sumerians Movement led by former Labor Minister Ahmed al-Asadi, which holds six seats, announced their withdrawal from the Reconstruction and Development coalition, which controls 51 seats in parliament.
The two blocs said Friday that their decision was prompted by what occurred during the parliamentary session approving the government, accusing other parties of “clearly circumventing political agreements, violating commitments and covenants, and adopting exclusionary and marginalizing methods.”
A source within the Coordination Framework told Alhurra that the Al-Awfiya Movement, which holds four parliamentary seats, also withdrew from Sudani’s coalition for the same reasons.
The Iraqi parliament voted Thursday to approve 14 ministers in Zaidi’s cabinet, while several other nominees failed to secure parliamentary confidence, delaying a decision on the remaining portfolios until after the Eid al-Adha holiday.
Among the candidates who failed to win parliamentary approval were two nominees affiliated with Maliki’s State of Law coalition, two from the Azm alliance, and one from the Kurdistan Democratic Party.
Issam al-Faili, a political science professor at Mustansiriya University, described the parliamentary session as “the straw that broke the Coordination Framework’s back.”
“The divisions and differences in vision have existed inside the Shiite alliance since its founding,” Faili told Alhurra. “But they surfaced openly after parliament rejected Maliki’s nominees in Zaidi’s government.”
Sources say the camp aligned with Maliki is now seeking to build a rival parliamentary front against Sudani’s alliance by attracting lawmakers from various factions, with the aim of obstructing parts of the government’s agenda or limiting the opposing camp’s ability to manage parliament in the next phase.
The sources also spoke of political efforts aimed at replacing current parliament speaker Haibat al-Halbousi as part of broader attempts to redraw the balance of power within the legislature.
According to the sources, Maliki views Sudani’s understandings with Halbousi and Bafel Talabani as an attempt to build a new political axis that moves beyond the traditional formula that has governed the Coordination Framework since its inception. Sudani’s camp, meanwhile, believes its rivals are using parliament as leverage to weaken the government and restore old centers of influence.
Faili said the extent of Maliki’s alliance’s influence will depend on its performance inside parliament and whether it can gather enough lawmakers to secure an absolute majority, enabling it either to pass legislation or block it.
He added that Iran cannot be excluded from the calculations of Iraq’s Shiite factions, predicting that Tehran would likely intervene if the divisions deepened in order to prevent “the fragmentation of the Shiite house” or at least contain the fallout.
“[The Iranians] are still in a phase of monitoring and waiting, but they will certainly intervene soon,” Faili said. “Past experience has shown their ability to contain disputes no matter how serious they become.”
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
Ghassan Taqi
A journalist specializing in Iraqi affairs, he has worked with the Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN) since 2015. He previously spent several years with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, as well as various Iraqi and Arab media outlets.
