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Now to the news of the week: President Donald Trump announced a deal with Iran on his 80th birthday. The signing is Friday in Geneva.
The details are still being worked out. On enrichment, Trump said the deal eliminates Iran’s uranium stockpile. Iran says it can keep enriching at low levels. Israel struck Beirut the morning of the announcement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Trump directly that his military forces will not leave southern Lebanon. Yet Iran says Lebanon is integral to the deal. The memorandum allows Israel to “counter immediate threats by Hezbollah.” This clause leaves significant room for continued military operations in southern Lebanon.
Also this week: Iran is pressing pro-Tehran militias in Iraq to reject surrendering their weapons to the Iraqi state, days after two of them announced they would do exactly that. Lebanon sentenced two citizens to 15 years for statements about Israel while negotiating with Israel in Washington. And Pakistan’s army chief has quietly turned a country of 250 million into a Middle East power broker.
Asrar Chbaro, Ghassan Taqi, Abubakar Siddique, and Yahia Kassem contributed to the Agenda this week.
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Washington Signals
The Birthday Deal
On his 80th birthday, President Donald Trump announced a deal with Iran before anyone had read the final text aloud.
Trump wanted three things on record: The Strait of Hormuz will be open permanently and toll-free; Iran’s nuclear weapons ambition will be eliminated; and military operations will end on all fronts, including Lebanon. The 14-article Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), to be signed in Geneva on June 19, reflects all three demands on the draft reviewed by Reuters. The gap between the paper and the ground is where everything gets complicated.
On enrichment, Trump said on June 14 that the deal would “eliminate Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile.” The next day, he told the New York Times that Iran could continue low-level enrichment. In Israel, the reaction was swift and broad. Many Israelis from across the political spectrum denounced the deal, calling it “a catastrophe.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faced mounting domestic pressure from within his own government and the Israeli public. On Lebanon, Trump wants a permanent end to hostilities. Netanyahu told him directly that his military will not withdraw from southern Lebanon. A senior U.S. official confirmed to CNN the memorandum “does not mandate Israel’s withdrawal.” Iran says Lebanon’s sovereignty is integral to the deal. When Israel struck Beirut on the morning of the announcement, Trump posted: “This should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal. Let’s not blow it!” Netanyahu sought a face-to-face with Trump before the Geneva signing. As of now, it has not been confirmed.
On June 14, asked by the Wall Street Journal whether regime change remained a goal, Trump posted on Truth Social: “As far as regime change, I never cared about regime change.”
Europe is also watching the Lebanon gap closely. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on X: “There can be no peace in the Middle East while Lebanon is in flames. Once again, Europe calls on all parties to respect Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and implement a genuine ceasefire.”
The signing happens on Friday. The harder story starts the morning after.
Quote Of The Day
“I respect President Trump, but I trust the Iranian regime about as much as I trust a crocodile to babysit.”
— Amjad Taha, UAE-based political analyst, June 14, 2026, quoted in The Jerusalem Post
Iraq Watch
Iran Pushes Back
Armored vehicles belonging to Iraqi security forces and factions affiliated with the Popular Mobilization Forces during battles against ISIS in 2015 (Reuters).
Iraq announced its first practical step toward disarming Iran-backed factions. Iran is working to stop it.
Political and security sources told MBN that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the branch of Iran’s military responsible for foreign operations, is pressuring Shiite armed factions inside Iraq to reject surrendering their weapons to the state. The pressure came days after two of those factions, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Imam Ali Brigades, both designated as terrorist organizations by the United States, announced they would comply.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq James Jeffrey told MBN the obstacles are “overwhelming and probably insurmountable.” Alfadhel Ahmed, a researcher specializing in Shiite armed groups, told MBN the factions’ compliance is “a response to American pressure,” not a genuine shift. Bridget Toomey of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told MBN that “if the militias fail to make meaningful progress, the Trump administration should sanction the financial and political enablers in the Iraqi government.”
The documentation covering weapons, personnel, and equipment has been handed over. But handing over papers is not the same as dismantling a militia. The factions remain intact as organized armed forces under their own commanders.
Read the full MBN exclusive here.
Regional Signals
Syria’s Card
Syrian soldiers sit atop a tank as they head toward the Syrian-Lebanese border following clashes with Lebanese soldiers and armed groups, in Qusayr, Syria, March 17, 2025. Reuters/Karam al-Masri. Pictures of the Day.
President Donald Trump said Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa “would want to help” resolve the conflict in Lebanon. He did not say how. The remark revived a debate that has been going on in Washington for months: whether Syria, which shares a long border with Lebanon and has its own grievances against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group that fought alongside the Assad regime during Syria’s civil war, could pressure Hezbollah to disarm.
Analysts told MBN that Trump’s remarks were more a message than a plan. The most realistic Syrian role, they said, would be tighter border controls and dismantling smuggling networks, not military intervention inside Lebanon. Lebanese lawmaker Nazih Matta told MBN the answer was plain: “We want the Lebanese state to fulfill its responsibilities so that there is no need for any external party to intervene on Lebanese territory.”
Trump’s remark put Syria in the conversation. Whether Damascus stays there depends on what happens on the ground in Lebanon.
Read the full MBN analysis here.
Global Signals
Pakistan’s Gamble
Vehicles move past a billboard of the Chief of Defence Forces of Pakistan, Field Marshal Asim Munir, in the background, in Karachi, Pakistan, May 21, 2026. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir brokered the April ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, deployed 8,000 troops to Saudi Arabia, signed a mutual defense pact with Riyadh, and earned a call from President Donald Trump, who named him his “favorite field marshal.” He is trying to turn a cash-strapped country of 250 million into a Middle East power broker.
Pakistan shares a 550-mile border with Iran and has signed a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, which has conducted strikes on Iranian territory. If that pact is ever invoked, Pakistan could find itself militarily committed against a neighbor it cannot afford to fight. Farzana Shaikh of Chatham House, a London-based think tank, told MBN the strategy is “a huge gamble. It could involve Pakistan in a full-scale regional war.” At home, Munir has imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan and curtailed civil liberties, leading Ayesha Siddiqa of King’s College London to warn MBN: “He will take his institution and the country into a dark alley, much like previous dictators did.”
Read the full MBN analysis here.
Featured Conversation
Reading the New Map
Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen, a member of the country’s security cabinet, sat down with MBN’s Jerusalem correspondent Yahia Kassem to discuss what the U.S.-Iran deal means for Israel and the region. He did not hold back on Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or Lebanon.
On Turkey: “Erdogan is a hypocrite. When the earthquake struck Turkey, Israel was the first country to send aid. Let me be clear: Erdogan wants to restore Ottoman influence over Syria and Lebanon. We have only one goal: to ensure our security. Anyone who attempts to move militarily against Israel takes a very serious risk. We have proven that.”
On Saudi Arabia: “If Israel and the United States had not acted against Iran, Iran would have had a nuclear weapon, and that weapon would have been a threat above all to Saudi Arabia. I believe the Saudi king owes a thousand thanks to both Trump and Israel.”
On Qatar: “Qatar is part of the Muslim Brotherhood axis. Qatar must choose a side: either stand with the extremist forces or stand with the West. The United States must stop allowing Qatar to play both sides. Qatar’s hypocrisy is known to all.”
On Lebanon: “Hezbollah does not serve the people of Lebanon. It is an Iranian arm that serves Tehran. There was a time when Lebanon was known as the Paris of the Middle East. Then the Iranians came and destroyed it.”
Watch the full interview here.
