Just two weeks after the U.S. President Donald Trump signed the U.S.-Iran memorandum, its consequences are resonating across the Middle East. Israel has agreed in principle to begin withdrawing from parts of southern Lebanon, and the Gulf Arab states are recalibrating their security strategies after the stark realization that Iran is capable of threatening their cities and economies.
None of it is guaranteed to last. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has rejected the deal with Israel, whose military is still carrying out strikes there. The Gulf capitals, for their part, are hedging their bets by deepening ties with new security partners while maintaining ties with Washington and dialogue with Tehran. The big question is no longer how the U.S.-Iran war ends, but what the geopolitical landscape of the region looks like in its aftermath.
Also this week: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tries to balance pressure from Washington with demands at home to keep fighting Hezbollah, and MBN speaks with the U.S. chargé d’affaires in Baghdad about Iraq’s new government, which on Sunday launched one of the country’s biggest anti-corruption crackdowns in years.
Joe Kawly, Yehia Qasim, Abubakar Siddique and Mustafa Saadoon contributed to the Agenda this week.
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WASHINGTON SIGNALS
Two Deals, Two Men
Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon during an interview with MBN’s Washington Bureau Chief Joe Kawly at the United Nations Headquarters, New York. June 29, 2026.
In the span of days, the Trump administration has hammered out two highly consequential diplomatic documents, each owned by a different man.
Vice President JD Vance staked his political future on the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, becoming the face of a deal that ended the fighting, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and set a 60-day countdown for a final nuclear agreement. President Donald Trump said publicly he would blame Vance if it failed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ran a parallel track, personally overseeing four days of negotiations to produce the first direct Israel-Lebanon framework agreement in decades.
The assignments are distinct. Vance holds the Iran file with a deal-oriented posture, while Rubio anchors the Israel-Lebanon track with the harder language of disarmament and sovereignty.
On the latest episode of The Diplomat, MBN Washington Bureau Chief Joe Kawly sat down with Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, for a close look at how Israel assesses what the Lebanon framework actually means on the ground. Danon was unambiguous on territory, saying Israel has no long-term claims in Lebanon. “We don’t want to stay in southern Lebanon,” he told Kawly. “We have no desire. We have no claim to the land. This land belongs to Lebanon.” But he placed the entire withdrawal timeline on Beirut. The Israeli military intends a gradual, phased pullout, he said, conditioned on the Lebanese Armed Forces demonstrating they can prevent Hezbollah from returning to the south. “It is up to the Lebanese government to decide about the timeline because they have to prove capabilities,” Danon said.
To bridge the gap, since Lebanon officially refuses direct military contact with Israel, Danon confirmed that a U.S.-brokered trilateral messaging channel is already operational. Washington serves as the conduit, allowing Israel to transmit operational alerts to Lebanese forces without formal bilateral contact. Danon was direct about what would happen if that breaks down. “If they are not capable of doing that, we will not sit idly by.”
Watch Kawly’s summation of the interview
LEBANON WATCH
Train Wreck Averted
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends the signing of the Israel-Lebanon framework agreement in Washington, June 26, 2026. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno.
Two days after Israel’s ambassador in Washington described ongoing peace talks with Lebanon in the United States as a “train wreck,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a preliminary deal for Israel to begin withdrawing from parts of southern Lebanon. As a test for a broader Israeli withdrawal, the deal designates two “pilot zones” that will be transferred to the Lebanese Armed Forces, with the U.S. vetting Lebanese troops for any links to Hezbollah.
Rubio called the deal “the beginning of the beginning,” arguing that the objective was a more sovereign Lebanon in which Hezbollah is militarily defanged and the state gains a monopoly on arms. Netanyahu described the deal as a blow to Iran, while Yechiel Leiter, the Israeli Ambassador in the U.S., said the deal put the “train back on the tracks.”
But Hezbollah immediately rejected the accord, calling it a concession to Israel and warning it could deepen divisions inside Lebanon and even create conditions for another civil war. Whether the program succeeds now depends on whether the Lebanese Armed Forces can maintain control in the pilot zones without serious clashes, paving the way for the broader Israeli withdrawal.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Iran has a new sense of power by virtue of having withstood the military assault that has taken place to date.
– Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry speaking to MS NOW.
ISRAEL WATCH
Netanyahu’s Dilemma
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a press conference in Jerusalem, following a U.S.-Iranian agreement, on June 15, 2026. Reuters/Ronen Zvulon/Pool
Inside Israel, Netanyahu is now trying to balance pressure from the Trump administration to work with the Lebanese government with demands from prominent Israelis to keep up the fight against Hezbollah. While U.S. officials are trying to stop the Israel-Hezbollah conflict from spoiling their negotiations with Iran, many in Israel say Iran-backed Hezbollah cannot be allowed to rebuild its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz continue to insist that the Israeli military retains complete freedom of action inside Lebanon. But Israeli media and opposition figures are casting doubt on that claim, arguing that soldiers now face tight operational restrictions designed to avoid jeopardizing the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
With an election on the horizon in Israel, Netanyahu’s government continued over the weekend to carry out strikes against what it says are Hezbollah operatives. The result is a delicate balancing act that aims to preserve U.S. support while convincing Israeli society that diplomacy does not threaten their security.
REGIONAL SIGNALS
Iran War Reshapes the Middle East
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and other Gulf leaders during a meeting in Doha, Qatar.
The Iran war has forced the Gulf Arab states to reassess their security strategies after Iran’s military demonstrated both the ability to strike targets across the region and to disrupt their energy exports. While the June 17 U.S.-Iran memorandum offers a path toward ending the conflict, analysts told MBN it leaves many of the Gulf monarchies’ core security concerns unresolved.
The Gulf states are not expected to break with Washington, but instead to pursue a multi-track strategy aimed at maintaining close military ties with the United States while expanding alternate defense partnerships with other countries, such as China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Britain, France and Germany. “It’s not going to be an abandonment of the United States, but it’s going to be hedging,” Middle East Institute Gulf expert Gregory Gause told MBN last week.
The war has also sharpened divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council. The UAE seems poised to deepen its alignment with Washington and Israel, while Saudi Arabia is more cautious about Israel. Qatar and Oman, meanwhile, are emphasizing diplomacy with Tehran. Analysts told MBN that the region now faces a more fragmented security landscape as the Gulf states adapt to living next to an Iran that, despite suffering damage from the war, has proved its strength as a regional power.
IRAQ WATCH
Corruption Crackdown
Iraqi authorities over the weekend arrested dozens of current and former officials in one of the country’s biggest corruption crackdowns in years. The campaign has so far resulted in 47 arrests and includes 12 sitting members of parliament, a former adviser to ex-Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and senior oil ministry officials accused of exploiting state resources for personal gain.
The arrests follow an investigation into former Deputy Oil Minister Adnan al-Jumaili and allegations that politicians used public funds to finance election campaigns and enrich themselves. Iraq’s parliament lifted the immunity of the lawmakers to allow the arrests inside Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone.
The crackdown is expected to reverberate across Iraq’s fractured political landscape. Those arrested come from both Shiite and Sunni political blocs, raising the prospect of further instability as new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi seeks to put his stamp on power with a high-profile anti-corruption campaign.
FEATURED CONVERSATION
View from the U.S. Embassy
Joshua Harris, the U.S. chargé d’affaires in Iraq, spoke last week with MBN’s Mustafa Saadoon about the formation of the new Iraqi government.
On America’s priorities in Iraq: “The United States wants to be able to operate in Iraq and advance a mutually beneficial relationship in security. We do not want our embassy, our companies, our citizens to be in danger, to be attacked.”
On Iraq’s new government: “The inclusion of actors that we consider to be terrorists within any government in any way is simply not going to take our relationship forward. It’s not a government that we can work with.”
On the consequences of Iraq failing to disarm the armed factions: “There were many hundreds of horrific terrorist attacks conducted against even this embassy, against U.S. interests, against Iraqi civilians, against the Kurdistan region, against our friends and partners in the region.”
