On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced that the United States had reached a ceasefire deal with Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending hostilities for 60 days and punting the issue of Iran’s nuclear program to future negotiations.
But while the agreement came as a welcome reprieve to a region battered by the three-month conflict — receiving significant praise from Middle East leaders — officials in Washington and Tehran appear unable to agree on what, exactly, they agreed to.
Neither nation has released the text of the deal, which will be signed in Geneva on Friday, and many of the issues that the two nations have debated remain unaddressed publicly: the fate of frozen Iranian assets, sanctions relief on Iran, the timeline for restoring commercial traffic through the strait and whether the ceasefire extends to Lebanon.
A ceasefire… but where?
That final issue — if the ceasefire applies to hostilities in Lebanon — remains particularly unclear. Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group, have been engaged in conflict for months. Neither Israel nor Hezbollah took part in negotiating the agreement, but Iranian officials have said future Israeli strikes against Hezbollah would violate its terms.
On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear that he has no intention of pulling out of Lebanon, where Israeli troops have set up what he calls a “security zone.” Netanyahu also suggested that Israel was not bound by the deal between Iran and the U.S., and that Israel “will continue to thwart threats in the region,” including the Iranian nuclear program.
“The Islamic Republic considered ending the war in Lebanon a requirement for ending the war with Iran from the very beginning,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian state media on Tuesday. “Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from territories they occupied during this war, the war will have not been fully brought to an end.”
Iran wants pay to play
Iran has attached a staggering price tag for its signature to the agreement: $12 billion.
It is not yet known if the U.S. will pony up, though. In 2015, the Obama administration provided billions in sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for a limited nuclear program. Trump was deeply critical of that agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and might not want to be perceived as recreating it.
The check may also be too much for the U.S. to settle alone. According to Patrick Clawson, the director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, most of the Iranian assets the U.S. has frozen are located abroad, and the U.S. would need support from other nations to move that money around.
“I think that very few of the assets that are frozen are in the United States,” Clawson told Alhurra in an interview last week. “I think the U.S. would have to persuade other countries, other governments, and that could be difficult.”
Reuters reported last week that the United Arab Emirates agreed to unlock billions of dollars to Iran, which the Gulf state’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs soon after called “false and unfounded.”
Uncertainty with the Strait of Hormuz
And then there is the Strait of Hormuz, the global chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes. Its disruptions have caused global oil and gas prices to soar, and many have been hurting at the pump.
Both Iran and the U.S. have agreed to lift their blockades, and Trump said that traffic through the waterway would return to normal by Friday. Some analysts think that will not be possible.
Trump also claimed on Sunday that the strait will be “permanently toll-free,” but that might not be possible either. On Monday, Iran floated charging fees for ships passing through.
A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that Iran was “not seeking to levy transit tolls; however, fees will be charged in exchange for the services that are provided.”
It is not yet clear what services Iran will provide, and how much they will cost.
