Oil prices fell to pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic is carefully ramping up. Secretary of State Marco Rubio returned from his Gulf tour of reassuring wary Arab allies. There’s lots happening in the aftermath of the U.S.- Iran peace framework, including former Israeli National Security Advisor’s blunt assessment: Iran outfoxed Washington.
Today, we also look at a Gulf region more divided than ever, and the vicissitudes of living in the company of a stronger Iran. Will Hezbollah and Iran’s stake in Lebanon upend the entire peace process? Next door, Washington gives Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi an ultimatum. And in our magazine, MBN columnist Mustafa Akyol reflects on how Turkey’s political system, not President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself, is the real reason behind the country’s authoritarian turn.
This weekly roundup of our best reporting on the Middle East and Washington is also published in Arabic. If you were forwarded this newsletter, subscribe here. We’d love to hear from you at thebriefing@mbn-news.com.
This Week on MBN
Did Iran Outplay Washington?
Former Israeli National Security Advisor Yaakov Amidror sits down with MBN’s Yehia Qasim for an outspoken critique of the U.S.-Iran talks. Washington — not Israel — wanted the war and Iran outmaneuvered the Americans at the table, says Amidror. He argues Hezbollah is now fighting for survival after losing its land bridge through Syria. And he says giving Tehran a say in Lebanon was a “huge mistake” that could reshape the balance of power.
Watch the interview here
Iran War Reshapes Gulf’s Security Map
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and other Gulf leaders during a meeting in Doha, Qatar.
The Iran war has left Arab Gulf states facing a harder new reality, writes MBN’s Abubakar Siddique. Iran survived the war, hit Gulf countries directly, and showed it can still threaten the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran framework agreement may ease tensions for now, but it doesn’t answer the Gulf’s biggest security fears. Now Gulf states are hedging: staying close to Washington while looking to Turkey, Europe, Asia and even Israel for protection and security cooperation. The result is a more anxious and more divided Gulf region that’s forced to live with a stronger Iran.
Read the article here
U.S. – Iran Deal Influences Lebanon-Israel Talks
Representatives from Lebanon and Israel participate in the first round of U.S.-mediated direct talks, April 14. REUTERS.
The new U.S.-Iran framework is casting a shadow over Lebanon-Israeli talks in Washington, reports MBN’s Alex Willemyns. Israel complains that the deal gives Tehran a role in Lebanon and may make Hezbollah feel stronger. Lebanon says Washington has promised help to strengthen the state and stabilize the ceasefire. The talks now focus on possible Israeli withdrawals from parts of southern Lebanon. But the bigger question is whether Hezbollah — and Iran’s role in Lebanon — will derail the whole process.
Read the article here
U.S. Warns Iraq on Militias
The U.S. Chargé d’Affaires in Iraq, Joshua Harris. The photo is from the website of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.
In an interview with MBN, U.S. Chargé d’ Affaires in Iraq, Joshua Harris, delivered a blunt message to Baghdad. Washington won’t work with any Iraqi government that includes U.S.-designated terrorist factions, Harris told MBN’s Mustafa Saadoon. Iraq must bring all weapons under state control, said Harris, adding that promises are not enough — Washington wants to see concrete action.
Read the article here
Egypt’s Nile Fight Reaches the Red Sea
Large Ethiopian flags are displayed at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), built along the Blue Nile, during its inauguration in Juba, Benishangul-Gumuz Region, Ethiopia, September 9, 2025. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri.
Egypt’s dispute with Ethiopia is no longer just about dams and water rights on the Nile. As Ethiopia pursues new dam projects on the Nile, it threatens Egypt’s water security. And by having access to the Red Sea through a port in Somaliland, Ethiopia will gain influence over shipping lanes that lead to Egypt’s Suez Canal. Cairo increasingly sees these moves as part of a broader strategic challenge, says MBN’s Rasha Ibrahim. The concern extends from the Nile basin to the Gulf of Aden, the Red Sea, and key shipping routes. That’s why Egypt is deepening ties with Eritrea and Somalia, also Red Sea countries, as competition over water, ports and influence intensifies.
Read the article here
Turkey’s Authoritarian Trap
Supporters of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, chairman of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) reinstated by a court decision, gather for a rally at the party’s headquarters in Ankara, Turkey, May 30, 2026. REUTERS/Efekan Akyuz
Many people see President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as the architect of Turkey’s authoritarian turn, but MBN’s Magazine contributor Mustafa Akyol argues the backstory goes much deeper. He says that the same tools now used against the opposition were once used by secular elites against Erdoğan and other political rivals. The real problem, he argues, is not one party or one leader, but a political system that allows whoever wins to dominate everyone else. Akyol concludes that Turkey can only break the cycle through stronger institutions, independent courts, and constitutional safeguards that limit power for all sides.
Read the article here
Quote of the Week: U.S. – Israel Tension
If I were part of the Israeli government, I might reconsider attacking the only significant ally I have left in the world.
