As Saudi Arabia has increased its reliance on the Red Sea to bypass instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a new threat is emerging in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait–Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement announced a so-called naval blockade that could disrupt shipping between Saudi ports and the Suez Canal.
The escalation places Saudi oil exports between two of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints, threatening Egypt with a decline in Suez Canal traffic and the loss of a critical source of foreign currency.
April Alley, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told MBN that the Red Sea has become increasingly important for Saudi oil exports during periods of heightened tensions with Iran.
Riyadh has expanded exports through the East-West Pipeline, which has become a vital alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. But oil shipped through that route can only reach global markets if passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains secure.
Abdulwahab Al-Qahtani, a professor of strategic management at Al Yamamah University in Saudi Arabia, estimated that rerouting oil tankers if the Bab el-Mandeb were closed would increase shipping costs by roughly 20 to 40 percent. The increase could exceed 50 percent during periods of crisis because of higher fuel prices and insurance premiums.
Such disruptions would hamper shipments from the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu to Asian markets while also driving up the cost of consumer goods inside the kingdom.
The economic consequences could be equally severe for Egypt, which has struggled with a prolonged economic crisis.
In April, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said Egypt had lost $10 billion in Suez Canal revenues because of earlier attacks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Medhat Nafea, an adviser to Egypt’s minister of supply and internal trade, said the country’s ability to withstand another round of disruptions would depend on how long the crisis lasted, warning that any interruption to maritime traffic would place additional pressure on Egypt’s balance of payments.
The Houthis did not explain how they intended to enforce the blockade, and there were no immediate signs that the strait had been physically closed or that shipping had come to a complete halt.
Even so, the announcement had an immediate impact. Shipping data on Wednesday showed that four tankers altered their routes in the Red Sea, with two of them listing the Suez Canal as their new destination.
Clarksons, the global shipbroking company, said Houthi threats to target Saudi-linked shipping had already begun to affect tanker activity.
According to the company, some tankers carrying cargo from the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu changed course toward the Suez Canal rather than continuing south through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while other vessels paused their voyages pending further instructions.
The Houthis have previously attacked vessels in the Red Sea using missiles, drones and explosive boats, prompting major shipping companies to avoid the waterway and reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, a longer route around the southern tip of Africa. The detours have lengthened voyage times and increased fuel, freight and insurance costs.
According to Nafea, Cairo’s response to the latest threat lies in diplomacy and coordinated security efforts with regional and international partners—not unilateral military action.
Still, he said the growing threat could push Egypt toward taking on a more active role in efforts to safeguard security in the Red Sea.
Retired Maj. Gen. Mohammed Al-Qubayan, a military affairs analyst, said that the timing of Houthi escalation against Saudi Arabia and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait appeared deliberate — reflecting the group’s close coordination with Iran as the United States intensifies military operations against Tehran.
He argued that Iran is seeking to use the Bab el-Mandeb as a source of strategic leverage.
Alley warned that there was a significant risk the Houthis could expand their attacks beyond Saudi-linked shipping if they carry out their latest threats.
She said the group appears to be carefully balancing its efforts to pressure Saudi Arabia while avoiding actions that could draw the United States more deeply into the conflict.
Following the Houthi announcement, the Saudi-led coalition backing Yemen’s internationally recognized government said it had begun operational measures to protect its vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
A coalition spokesman said any Houthi threats against commercial shipping would be met firmly, describing them as a clear violation of international law and an act of maritime piracy.
The coalition did not provide further details on the measures.
In an official statement, Saudi Arabia called on the international community to fulfill its obligations in implementing relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions, particularly Resolution 2216 on Yemen and Resolution 2722 on freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.
Riyadh also said any steps it takes to protect its vessels would comply with international law and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Retired Brig. Gen. Samir Ragheb, an Egyptian military expert, echoed Nafea’s assessment, saying Cairo’s options likewise fall into two tracks: a diplomatic and political approach, which should take priority, and a military track focused primarily on defensive measures.
The diplomatic track would involve using mediation channels with Iran to pressure the Houthis while pursuing action through the U.N. Security Council and other international forums to address threats to maritime navigation.
On the military side, Ragheb noted that Egypt is a member of Combined Task Force 153, whose mission could be expanded to include escorting and protecting commercial convoys. Under such a scenario, Egypt would participate as part of a multinational force operating under an international mandate.
Combined Task Force 153 is a multinational maritime coalition established in April 2022 and led by the U.S. Navy. Egypt is among its participating members. Its primary mission is to safeguard and monitor international shipping along vital global trade routes.
Al-Qubayan said the Houthis are unlikely to be able to impose full control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait or enforce an effective blockade because of the significant international military presence in the area.
Alley, however, argued that the Houthis do not need to shut down the waterway completely to achieve their objective. The mere threat of attacks against Saudi-linked shipping can disrupt maritime traffic, drive up insurance costs and force vessels onto longer alternative routes.
The Red Sea is already patrolled by international naval forces and is home to military bases in Djibouti and Eritrea, as well as U.S. aircraft carriers, the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, and British frigates.
Ragheb said Egypt is unlikely to engage unilaterally in direct combat operations, particularly because the Bab el-Mandeb Strait lies outside Egyptian territorial waters. However, he said Cairo could expand its role in coordination with Saudi Arabia, reflecting the close security cooperation between the two countries.
To help secure Saudi Arabia’s coastline, he suggested the possibility of joint Egyptian-Saudi naval patrols supported by warships, aircraft and drones to protect ports and shipping lanes.
Operations south of Saudi Arabia, he said, could be conducted either under the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen or through Combined Task Force 153. The ultimate scope of the mission would depend on political decisions, including whether it would be limited to protecting commercial shipping and intercepting attacks or expanded to target the sources of the threat.
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
