Welcome back to the MBN Iran Briefing. You can read it in Arabic here, and check out MBN’s flagship Arabic-language Alhurra news platform (also in English). If you were forwarded the MBN Iran Briefing, please subscribe.
This week’s edition of the briefing is a joint effort by our new Iran reporter Tara Rad, who is writing under a pseudonym, and myself.
Here’s what you need to know this week. With the Strait of Hormuz already closed, the Houthis’ seizure of all of Yemen’s Red Sea coast and full control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait has added further chaos to the region, with serious consequences for global shipping. Oman postponed today’s Iran-Gulf talks on managing Hormuz, just before they were set to open, after Bahrain refused to attend. The UN Security Council will be considering the Iran nuclear file for the first time in 20 years, and parliament spokesman Abbas Goudarzi called quitting the NPT “fully attainable and easy to achieve.”
Iran’s judiciary seized 240 properties and froze 182 bank accounts tied to alleged foreign collaborators. The central bank’s new gold-backed security drew buyers for less than half the offering, talk of a “coup” against Pezeshkian has entered the political debate, and Iran says it has deported nearly a million Afghans since March.
Share your thoughts, analysis, and predictions with me at ailves@mbn-news.com.
And don’t forget to check out the upcoming Iran Briefing podcast, when I talk to Alan Eyre, former diplomat, the first-ever Persian language spokesperson of the U.S. State Department and lifelong Iran watcher. We take up how 9/11, the current conflict, the motives of the Tehran regime, and the sweep of Iranian history and are all connected.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
Withdrawing from the NPT and revising the nuclear doctrine … is fully attainable and easy to achieve.
—Abbas Goudarzi, spokesman for the presidium of the Iranian parliament
TOP OF THE NEWS
1. Second Global Chokepoint Falls
The Houthis’ rapid capture of key islands late last week, putting them in control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, has upended the balance of power in the Gulf region yet again. All of Yemen’s Red Sea coast is now controlled by the rebel group, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait carries roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne crude oil and close to a third of its container traffic. This comes on top of the ongoing de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia’s workaround to the lack of access to Hormuz would normally be its east-west pipeline, but it was knocked offline during the weekend by drone strikes launched from Iraq.
Shipping operators now face significant rerouting. In the words of Caroline Rose, an analyst at the Soufan Center, “Instead of going through the Red Sea, Suez, then Europe, they now have to explore a much more onerous path through Asia, the Cape of Good Hope, the Atlantic, then to Europe.”
Brent crude was trading at nearly $107 a barrel earlier today. One analyst predicted that Brent could go above $120 if the disruption in Hormuz continues into 2027.
Watch what the Houthis do next.
2. Hormuz Talks Postponed Hours Before They Were Set to Open
Just before it was to take place, Oman postponed the meeting among Iran and Gulf states that had been planned for today about Hormuz. In a post on X, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said the move was “[i]n the interests of consensus.” This came after Bahrain said that “the Kingdom of Bahrain will not participate in [the meeting], and… will not be a party to any group meeting that includes Iran before the return of diplomatic relations between the two countries.” The Bahraini statement pointedly highlighted that “dialogue cannot ignore the facts. The Kingdom has been subjected to attacks targeting its infrastructure and civilian facilities, one of which, targeting an ammonia tank, nearly led to a comprehensive catastrophe,” and went on to mention the targeting of the east-west pipeline in Saudi Arabia.
Watch whether Oman sets a new date this week.
Iranian Ambassador to the UN in Vienna Reza Najafi (L) and Behrouz Kamalvandi (R), spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, at the Board of Governors meeting of the IAEA at the agency’s headquarters in Vienna on Monday. Photo: AFP.
3. Iran’s Nuclear Issue Returns to the Security Council
“If we were seeking nuclear weapons, we would not have become a member of the NPT,” Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian said while attending the BRICS summit in New Delhi. Iran has been a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty since its beginning six decades ago. Meanwhile, back home, Abbas Goudarzi, spokesman for the presidium of the Iranian parliament, said that quitting the NPT was “fully attainable and easy to achieve.” Last week, the IAEA board reported Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years. Russia, China, and Niger voted against the IAEA measure. Iran is counting on a veto from Moscow and Beijing at the Security Council vote planned for Sept. 17.
Three things to watch for: whether Russia and China veto the Security Council’s vote on renewing the Iran sanctions panel, whether Goudarzi’s talk of withdrawal turns into parliamentary action, and whether Iran draws more pressure at the IAEA’s 70th General Conference, opening today in Vienna.
A man withdraws money from a Tejarat Bank ATM on a street in Tehran. Photo: AFP.
4. Judiciary’s Domestic Purge Is Widening
Iran’s judiciary seized 240 properties and 182 frozen bank accounts belonging to people accused of aiding Israel. One hundred forty-three of the properties are in Tehran alone. More than 2,000 additional account inquiries are still being processed by the Central Bank, so the number targeted is set to climb. The seizures fall under Iran’s toughened espionage law, which allows prosecutors to seek the death penalty, though officials have not said whether any newly named cases will be referred for capital charges. Authorities describe the assets as compensation for Iranians harmed in the 12-Day War, and say that “some of these assets belonged to journalists working for anti-revolutionary media outlets – such as Iran International, Manoto, and others – as well as activists and operators of hostile media and prominent figures residing abroad who have betrayed the country.”
Watch for further seizures and whether any newly targeted individuals face capital charges.
IN OTHER NEWS
Iran’s Central Bank Tries a Golden Fix
Iran’s central bank has launched a new gold-linked security aimed at managing demand for gold as Iranians seek protection from inflation and the weakening rial.
The Central Bank offered securities equivalent to 100,000 gold coins through the Iran Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday.
Investors bought securities equivalent to about 42,000 coins, or forty-two percent of the initial offering. The Central Bank said individual investors accounted for nearly sixty-seven percent of the securities purchased, while gold investment funds bought more than thirty-three percent.
The contracts were priced at the equivalent of about 2.357 billion rials ($1,000) per coin.
Nader Bazrafshan, head of Tehran’s gold and jewellery union, questioned how much the scheme can achieve. He told Ettelaat that a seven percent return over three months was unattractive, given Iran’s inflation rate.
Bazrafshan described the securities as a temporary remedy, arguing that domestic gold prices cannot fall sustainably unless the Central Bank also brings down the exchange rate. He noted that Iranian gold and coin prices had risen even as international gold prices fell.
Iran’s Political Debate Takes a “Coup” Turn
Talk of a “coup” against Pezeshkian has entered Iran’s political debate, reflecting how sharply parts of the conservative establishment are now divided over his government.
The immediate trigger was Tehran MP Mojtaba Zarei, who posted on X that parliament had confronted what he called a “coup” against the sitting government. He referred to an unnamed lawmaker and a political group identified only by the Persian letter “Sh” — widely interpreted by Iranian media as Sharyan, a hardline political network. Zarei offered no evidence of an actual coup plot, and Ettelaat noted that ordinary political efforts to weaken or remove a government do not amount to a coup unless they move outside legal and constitutional channels.
What is striking is the language now being used inside the establishment. Reformist paper Mardom Salari argued that pressure from Sharyan and hardliners appears aimed at politically exhausting Pezeshkian, portraying his government as incapable of governing and eventually creating conditions for resignation or an early presidential election. The newspaper presented this as analysis, not an established plan.
The rhetoric has also become more confrontational. Ettelaat highlighted recent remarks by Mohammad-Bagher Kharrazi, secretary-general of Hezbollah of Iran, who spoke of mobilizing as many as 250,000 organised supporters and suggested such a force could “finish the job” against the government. The judiciary has since opened a case against him.
Afghan migrants carrying their belongings walk along the Khaf-Herat railway after returning from Iran. Photo: AFP.
Mass Deportations of Afghans Continue
Iranian authorities say 940,000 Afghan nationals have been sent back to Afghanistan through the Dogharoun border crossing near Mashhad since March, describing them as “unauthorized” migrants. This is the second time this year that an Iranian official has released figures on the removal of Afghans.
Recently, Nader Yarahmadi, head of the Interior Ministry’s foreign nationals and migrants affairs department, said around 1.8 million undocumented foreigners had left Iran over the past year, either after being expelled or by presenting themselves for departure. According to the ministry, the total number of foreign nationals in Iran has fallen from around 6.1 million to below five million.
Interior Ministry spokesman Ali Zeinivand said last month that the programme had not been suspended and would continue, while stressing that legal migrants were not the target. Around two million undocumented Afghans have left since the current programme began in spring 2025, according to ministry figures.
Pressure is also continuing at the provincial and border levels. Authorities in Mazandaran province on the Caspian coast just north of Tehran, where Afghan nationals are barred from residing and working, said more than 58,700 undocumented migrants had been expelled from the province over the past two years. At the eastern border, the prosecutor in Taybad said more than 80,000 undocumented Afghans had been detained during the current Iranian year.
