Managing Uncertainty

Dear Colleagues,

Henry Sokolski will be with us virtually today at 10 am EST. Sarah Arkin comes to Springfield on Thursday. Look for details from Deirdre Kline and please join us to take advantage of these opportunities.

At State, Sarah leads the U.S. Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy. American engagement with the world is not getting easier. Henry is the founding executive director of the Nonproliferation Education Policy Center. His issues are highly relevant to our region. Henry thinks Iran is closer to the bomb than many people think.

Managing risk in international affairs is getting harder. Is a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel possible? How would the United States and Russia react if their military advisers in Iran and Israel were affected? Is nuclear proliferation back on the agenda? Once the Iranian regime has nuclear weapons, will Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey follow suit?

Relations between Washington and Tehran are apt to become more complicated. Last Friday, the U.S. Justice Department unsealed criminal charges that include details of a plot to kill Donald Trump before the November 5 election. A criminal complaint filed in federal court in New York City alleges that an unnamed official in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) facilitated a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump.

Managing Uncertainty

We live in an era of shock and surprise: Brexit, COVID, January 6, October 7 — Donald J. Trump. Top experts were convinced Vladimir Putin would never launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Who imagined Ukraine invading Russia in return? Or that Kim Jong Un would dispatch North Korean troops to the conflict where they’d engage in combat only a two hour flight away from Berlin.

Science is exploding with discovery. Across disciplines and industries, AI is driving immense opportunity — and anxiety. Then there’s American politics.

I was struck by a post by George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen this past summer. Three months before the election Tyler wrote:

1. Trump and his team understand that we now live in a world of social media. Only a modest part of the Democratic establishment has mastered the same.
2. The deindustrialization of America has mattered more than people expected at first, and has had longer legs, in terms of its impact on public opinion.
3. The ongoing feminization of society has driven more and more men, including Black and Latino men, into the Republican camp.
4. The Obama Administration brought, to some degree, both the reality and perception of being ruled by the intellectual class. People didn’t like that.
5. The Woke gambit has proven deeply unpopular.
6. Trans support has not been a winning issue for Democrats, but it is hard for them to let it go.
7. Immigration at the border has in fact spun out of control, and that has been a key Trump issue from the beginning. And I write this as a person who is very pro-immigration. You can imagine how the immigration skeptics feel.
8. The Democrats made a big mistake going after “Big Tech.” It didn’t cost them many votes, rather money and social capital.
9. Various developments in Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Israel have not helped the Democratic cause.

Last week, Donald Trump won — big. You’re acquainted with dire predictions about the next Trump presidency. Here’s an alternative scenario from Tyler’s Cowen’s colleague Alex Tabarrok:

•  Trade Policy: Moderate tariff increases on China. … Drop the “tariffs on everything” language. He can always say his rhetoric was a threat to get other countries to lower their tariffs. Let’s instead talk tough against our enemies but shift toward “friend-shoring,” maintaining or even lowering tariffs with allied nations, such as Canada, Europe, and possibly India, as part of a broader strategy to contain China’s influence.
•  Border Control: Trump must strengthen the border. But let’s limit deportations to individuals who arrived in the past four years. Control the border … minimize human misery by not deporting long-term residents. Declare a win while avoiding economic disruption.
•  Space and Innovation: U.S. Space Force! Commit to Mars exploration and position the U.S. as a leader in space innovation. Get advice from Elon.
•  U.S. AI.Immediately approve Meta for its nuclear-AI program. Approve Amazon as well. … Keep the Chip Act but make it clear that the goal is to dominate the space not make jobs or social policy. We are the world leaders in AI. Let’s keep it that way.
• Kill Bureaucracy: Let Elon Musk take the chainsaw to a few bureaucracies. … Streamline bureaucratic processes, cut red tapeand invigorate tech and infrastructure initiatives.
• Expand Housing Supply: Build baby build!Trump is a natural to lead this. Trump the developer! Incentivize states and localities to streamline zoning laws and reduce restrictions that hamper new housing developments. Increase housing supply.

Note that Tabarrok sees things through the lens of a libertarian leaning economist. We all have our points of reference.

Keep an eye on Marginal Revolution, where Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok post pieces and links to interesting research, books, and articles.

I’m curious about a new book expected out in 2025. It’s British statistician David Spiegelhalter’s The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk, and Luck.

Learning, Competing

Let’s keep looking for ways to engage leading experts to enrich our journalism. We’re working on a date for John Sullivan. John is a former U.S. Ambassador to Russia who worked as Deputy Secretary of State from 2017 to 2019. Like Beijing, Moscow sees the Middle East in the context of strategic competition with the United States.

Here’s a new Carnegie report issued last week on Russia’s ensuring presence in the Middle East. John’s new book draws on his own experience with Russia’s war against the West.

Let’s keep looking for ways to spark imagination and discover new treasures. MBN is a place of remarkable talent. It’s not too late to submit for the “Ideas and Innovation Competition.” The deadline is this Friday, November 15. We’ll have an event announcing and celebrating winners on December 4.

The “Ideas and Innovation Competition” is open to all MBN employees. Send your idea to competition@mbn-news.com. If you missed the original announcement with details and guidelines, email Billy Sabatini —wsabatini@mbn-news.com.

This winter we’ll continue competition with a twist — with an MBN version of “Shark Tank” where our ideas entrepreneurs try to convince top editors from the outside to back their work. This will be a pitch-fest before our own live studio audience. Stay tuned for details.

If you’ve not yet filled out the staff survey on MBN organizational culture, do so. It takes just a few minutes. The deadline is tomorrow. We’ll share survey data after Thanksgiving — with a roadmap to improve in areas important to you.

Apropos Thanksgiving, in Springfield we’ll have a potluck on November 20. Look for details from Deirdre Kline.

And please join me for our next town hall meeting this Wednesday at 9 am EST. There’s lots to discuss.

My best, Jeff