Egypt is suffering a drop in crucial wheat imports as its two major suppliers, Russia and Ukraine, trade attacks on Black Sea shipping.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, the two sides have repeatedly targeted vessels crossing the sea and port facilities, disrupting grain exports in particular.
Attacks intensified in early October, with drone strikes targeting commercial ships and ports. Two vessels were struck in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone on Oct. 6.
The conflict is adding fresh strain to supply chains serving the Middle East, which is already grappling with Iran’s shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and its allied Houthis attacks on the Red Sea.
Russia and Ukraine are Egypt’s leading wheat suppliers, together accounting for about 85 percent of the country’s wheat imports in 2025.
Russia, which ships more than 70 percent of its grain from Black Sea ports, saw its August wheat exports fall by 40 percent below normal amid the exchange of attacks with Kyiv.
Ukraine can ship only about a third of its grain available for export because of Russian strikes. About 85 percent of Ukraine’s food exports normally pass through Black Sea ports, and alternative routes cannot make up for that capacity.
Egypt’s wheat imports fell to about 12.5 million metric tons in the 2025-26 fiscal year through June, from as much as 13.2 million tons the previous fiscal year, according to remarks by Agriculture Minister Alaa Farouk.
The supply has faced even more strain in recent months. The Egyptian government has not imported wheat since May and is relying on private-sector imports to meet its needs as fighting between Russia and Ukraine intensifies and shipping from Black Sea ports grows riskier.
Ahmed Kamal, assistant minister of supply and internal trade and the ministry’s spokesman, told MBN the government had increased its reliance on domestic production while maintaining strategic reserves that would allow it to respond to changes in global trade.
Egypt’s domestic wheat output rose more than 6.5 percent year over year, exceeding 10 million tons in fiscal 2025-26.
The country imported about two million tons of wheat from February through May in anticipation of disruptions.
Egypt’s total annual wheat needs are about 20 million tons, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates for the 2025-26 marketing year.
Last week, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said during a meeting with military leaders that food and commodity prices had risen 40 percent because of the Black Sea disruptions and that the problems were affecting Egypt’s economy.
The Central Bank of Egypt projected that annual inflation would rise to between 16 and 17 percent in 2026, up from its previous forecast of 11 percent.
Maha el-Sheikh, a professor of supply chains and digital logistics support at the Middle East University, told MBN that Egypt imported 5.28 million tons of wheat from Russia and 2.16 million tons from Ukraine between July 2025 and January 2026.
She said exports from Russia and Ukraine were a key pillar of “the security of Egypt’s daily bread.” As fighting in the Black Sea intensifies, the Egyptian Supply Ministry said it was turning to other markets, including France. On Aug. 30, the cargo ships Nan Lin and Genoa arrived at the French Atlantic port of La Pallice to load nearly 60,000 tons of wheat bound for Egypt.
“Although alternatives such as France, Romania, Bulgaria and other countries exist, they are not free,” el-Sheikh said. “The farther away the sources of supply, the higher the shipping and insurance costs.” Those costs could quickly feed through to the price of bread, she warned.
The United Nations World Food Program said it was deeply concerned by the escalating attacks on Black Sea ports, commercial vessels and infrastructure used to export food.
Abeer Etefa, the program’s media spokeswoman, told MBN that the attacks were disrupting one of the world’s most important food corridors at a time when global food security was under mounting pressure from conflicts, climate shocks and fragile supply chains. She warned that the fallout from current events could push at least 49 million more people worldwide into acute hunger, and called for ports, shipping routes and food supply chains to be protected to prevent the global hunger crisis from worsening.
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
