Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies are on course to win the largest number of seats in the Knesset, according to preliminary results from Tuesday’s election. But they have no clear path to securing a parliamentary majority, and the same is true of their main rival, Gadi Eisenkot.
Yehia Qasim, MBN’s chief correspondent in Jerusalem, said contacts had begun among the various parties, including Arab parties, ahead of consultations with Israeli President Isaac Herzog. During those consultations, lawmakers are expected to recommend a candidate to be tasked with forming the next government.
Qasim added that Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats Party, had called for an urgent effort to form a government in partnership with Arab lawmakers in the Knesset. Netanyahu, meanwhile, warned against such a move.
With more than 86% of the votes counted, preliminary results show Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc winning 53 seats, while the bloc led by Eisenkot’s Yashar Party has secured 48. Arab parties have meanwhile delivered a surprise performance, winning 17 seats so far.
Former Israeli Communications Minister Ayoob Kara told MBN that the most likely scenario for forming the next government would be an agreement between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, backed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
The current Knesset election results point to several other possible scenarios for forming Israel’s next government.
A Coalition Built With Defectors
Netanyahu and Eisenkot could form a governing coalition by persuading lawmakers from the other camp to defect and join their side.
But estimates suggest that both camps remain short of the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority, with Netanyahu better positioned to reach that threshold.
Netanyahu would have to persuade several opposition lawmakers to join his ranks to secure a majority. That would be a formidable political challenge, particularly after an election campaign in which opposition leaders made replacing Netanyahu one of their central goals.
Kara said Netanyahu might seek to bring one or two opposition parties into his coalition to secure a majority, despite resistance from factions within Eisenkot’s camp to joining a government led by Netanyahu.
In a speech at Likud headquarters on Tuesday, Netanyahu called for the formation of a strong, right-wing nationalist government that did not rely on non-Zionist Arab parties.
A National Unity Government
Politically, a national unity government bringing together Netanyahu’s and Eisenkot’s camps remains possible, although such an arrangement would require several political leaders to backtrack on promises they made during the election campaign.
Aharon Bregman, an Israeli researcher in war studies at King’s College London, said a unity government in which Netanyahu and Eisenkot took turns serving as prime minister was the most likely scenario at present. He added that Trump’s administration could pressure both sides to form such a government.
Kara, for his part, said Netanyahu faced a dilemma under this scenario. He wants to retain the support of his right-wing allies, fearing they could turn against him if he excluded them from the government in favor of an agreement with the opposition.
Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has shown a willingness to compromise on their positions, while both “Together” chief Naftali Bennett and “Yisrael Beytenu” chairman Avigdor Liberman have ruled out joining a government led by Netanyahu.
Accepting Support From Arab Parties
The change bloc led by Eisenkot could form a governing coalition if it agrees to accept support from Arab parties, which have won 17 seats according to partial results.
Bregman said the Arab parties’ participation could enable Eisenkot to form a government, but the main obstacle is political opposition to their inclusion in the coalition.
Eisenkot could also secure a parliamentary safety net from Arab parties without bringing them into the governing coalition itself. So far, however, he has kept his distance from accepting their support.
Arab parties, particularly the United Arab List, known as Ra’am, have expressed openness to working with an Eisenkot-led coalition. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has denounced any coalition that includes Arab parties.
Kara believes U.S. intervention could influence the course of negotiations, predicting that Washington would be more likely to press for a national unity government than to support a narrower coalition.
Heading Toward Another Election
The strong performance of Arab parties in the preliminary results has made it harder for either political camp to secure the number of seats needed to form a governing coalition. If the other scenarios fail, Israel could find itself heading to another election.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday stressed the need to make every possible effort to avoid another election.
Kara did not rule out a new vote but said most Israelis did not want to return to the ballot box.
Bregman predicted that government-formation negotiations could drag on, while Netanyahu would remain in office and continue making decisions, including on the possibility of striking Iran.
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
