Gulf Defense Strategy: The High-Stakes Balance Between Autonomy and Alliances

Sukina Ali's avatar Sukina Ali11-25-2025

Gulf states’ weapons manufacturing stands today at the intersection of two routes: imperative localization and foreign procurement. The two tracks of this equation, once viewed as separate, have become increasingly intertwined. That convergence was on full display at the 2025 Dubai Airshow with the unveiling of the Badr-250, the first medium-size defensive aircraft built entirely within a Gulf industrial ecosystem.

The announcement was more than a technical milestone. It signaled a shift in the Gulf states’ concept of security. It is no longer limited to acquiring advanced system, but is now increasingly tied to generating and expanding domestic defense knowledge. This shift is reshaping the defense policy across the region along two parallel paths: expanding local industrial capacity while maintaining immediate readiness through advanced foreign acquisitions.

Saudi Arabia, for instance, has raised its defense-industry localization target from 19.35 percent to 50 percent by 2030. Parallel to that, it signed a $142 billion weapons package with the United States in May that included missiles, air-defense systems, and maritime and aerial communications gear. The dual approach raises pressing questions: How far can Gulf defense industries evolve into pillars that guarantee strategic autonomy? And can localization reach a point where dependence on foreign suppliers can be reduced without undermining readiness in a volatile security environment?

Building a Homegrown Defense Base

Defense industrialization in the Gulf is no longer merely an economic or political project. It has become a key indicator of transforming states into regional heavyweights. Saudi Arabia spent an estimated $75.8 billion on defense in 2024 and allocated $78 billion for 2025 — roughly 21 percent of government spending and 7.1 percent of GDP.

Analysts say the scale of Saudi military spending underscores an urgent need to build a defense ecosystem less vulnerable to shifting global alliances. Domestic production reached 19.35 percent in 2024, according to the Kingdom’s localization index — a key benchmark under Vision 2030. The increase stems from expansive programs launched by the General Authority for Military Industries, which is developing 74 investment opportunities across defense supply chains.

In the United Arab Emirates, EDGE Group has emerged as a leading regional model, operating more than 35 subsidiaries with a workforce of 14,100. In just five years, EDGE expanded its catalog from 30 products to 201 in defense and high-tech sectors. Qatar’s Barzan Holdings is developing ammunition, counter-drone systems and portable weapons, while Bahrain established the Military Industries Development and Warfighting Institute in 2022 to structure its emerging defense sector. Oman has leaned on partnerships with companies such as Turkey’s Aselsan to transfer technology and build local production lines. Kuwait remains in an early phase and continues to rely heavily on imports.

Across the region, the goal is not full self-sufficiency but rather building an industrial bases capable of absorbing advanced technologies and capturing a larger share of value locally. Maj. Gen. Shami Al-Dhaheri, former head of the Saudi Armed Forces Command and Staff College, notes that Gulf efforts echo earlier Arab initiatives. In the 1970s, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar partnered with Egypt in the Arab Organization for Industrialization before the project faltered after Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel. Saudi Arabia, he says, had taken an even earlier step by establishing military factories in Al-Kharj in 1949 to produce ammunition and light weapons for its armed forces. “Today, companies like SAMI are a natural extension of a project that began decades ago, especially with the goal of localizing 50 percent of defense spending,” Al-Dhaheri said. Gulf states have achieved notable progress in localizing weapons production, but still have some distance to go for the complete production of heavy equipment.

Strategy analyst Khalid Al-Sallal says Gulf nations will not produce fighter jets or jet engines anytime soon. Instead, he expects the focus to remain on drones, smart munitions, electronics and logistics — areas to which the private sector has relatively easier access. Al-Dhaheri adds that no national defense industry is meant to produce everything. But it can open space for local firms to integrate into military production — much like the dozens of U.S. civilian contractors that contribute components to the F-35.

 Foreign Weapons Deals 

Despite accelerating localization efforts, Gulf states still depend heavily on foreign arms purchases– especially high technical complexity equipment, to maintain immediate operational readiness. Over the past decade, Gulf governments have signed a series of large deals. Saudi Arabia’s $142 billion agreement with the United States in May 2025 remains among the largest. Washington also approved a $3.5 billion sale of 1,000 AIM-120C-8 missiles to Riyadh.

The UAE secured $1.2 billion in precision-guided munitions in 2024, followed by approvals for CH-47F helicopters and F-16 sustainment contracts worth over $1 billion. Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain have also struck multibillion-dollar deals with U.S. and European suppliers. Al-Sallal says major arms purchases allow Gulf private-sector companies to plug into global supply chains because foreign contractors are required to localize part of production and train domestic workers.

Cybersecurity and digital transformation, he adds, offer a unique opening for Gulf firms to work in the defense sector without the need for large manufacturing infrastructure. Al-Dhaheri says Gulf states are among the world’s biggest buyers of Western weapons because their national security requires system and equipment that cannot yet be built locally such as from advanced fighter aircrafts, naval vessels, long-range missiles and tanks well adapted to desert environment. He points to the roughly $100 million unit cost of an F-35 as a reminder of the enormous investment modern military capabilities require. The road to a localized defense industry in the Gulf, is neither short nor simple. The region has made meaningful progress, but a long journey still lies ahead before Gulf states can reach the finish line.


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