Iran’s Foreign Policy Push; MBN’s New China Tracker

Dear Colleagues,

Iran is struggling at home.

Gas prices are about to jump. There are signs that an increasingly anxious regime is looking for ways to release some of the steam that might lead to a new wave of nation-wide protests. There’s been a relaxation of strict hijab oversight in northern Tehran.

The daughter of an aide to the Supreme Leader sparked outrage recently. Photos leaked from her Western-style wedding and strapless, low-cut dress.

Extreme brutality is still on. Our Dalshad Hussein reports on capital punishment as a tool against dissent. Minors and young adults are hanged in Iran. There have been an estimated 1,571 executions in total in 2025 alone.

While internal tensions mount, there’s little sign of reticence in Iranian foreign policy.

Iran’s Foreign Policy Push

Drones are launched and missiles are still fired at Iraq by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Kurds keep pleading with the U.S. to keep military bases in the autonomous Kurdish region.

Reports last week identified Dubai as key point now for Iran’s continued funneling of financial support to Lebanese Hezbollah.

Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Saud bin Mohammed Al-Sati is expected soon in Tehran for talks on Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is scheduled to visit Tehran on Sunday.

Yesterday, we hosted Turkish guests in Springfield from the independent media and NGO space. Colleague Joe Kawly has just interviewed Soner Çağaptay on Turkey as “hinge” and “balancer” in our region.

Iran and Türkiye have agreed to begin constructing a new joint railway designed to serve as a strategic bridge between Asia and Europe.

Iran has been dealt setbacks the last twelve months: the collapse of the Assad regime, Israel’s battering of Hezbollah, the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Don’t count the clerics out yet, however.

Please keep promoting MBN’s Iran Briefing. Andres’s newsletter is an impressive part of our suite of new products and already a must-read for many Iran watchers. It’s in Arabic with an English language edition. Encourage people to sign up here.

This week, Andres reports on the “Islamic Revolutionary Court” that issued a sentence in absentia to Jafar Panahi, one of Iran’s most celebrated filmmakers.

Panahi has already spent time in Tehran’s notorious Ervin prison. His light sentence this time — just one year — is “signaling without martyring,” says Andres. That is, a long new sentence would have increased his martyr status. The intent, argues our Iran scholar? Intimidate artists. Avoid backlash. Getting domestic repression right keeps getting harder in today’s Iran.

Editorial Line Up

 Warmest thanks to Leila, Abed, and team for another fine week (and it’s just Wednesday). There’s palpable energy with a truly inspiring crew. Current highlights include:

• “Hezbollah’s Weapons” (Asrar). There’s a deepening divide between the “sovereigntist camp” (led by figures like Samir Geagea and Nadim Gemayel) demanding immediate disarmament and the “resistance”
• “Iran’s Hidden Nuclear Network” (Ghassan). Iran continues its covert procurement activities despite the damage inflicted by the “Twelve-Day War.”
• “The Beit Jinn Operation” (Yehia). Israel is developing its doctrine of “defense within enemy territory. The Israeli Army’s 210th Division has already been deep inside Syrian territory to arrest members of an “Islamic Group” planning attacks on the Golan.
• “Moroccan Turmoil Over Western Sahara” (Houda). Can Rabat can successfully test its “advanced regionalization” model in the southern provinces without fracturing the central state?
• “The Gulf Money Game” (Sukina). Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are becoming increasingly adept at using finance as a tool of national security, resisting finance for states with significant Iranian influence, for example.
• “Extremists Fear Education More Than Weapons” (Randa). A digital explainer investigates the ideological roots of the war on education waged by ISIS, Boko Haram, and the Taliban.
• “Soccer and the Sudan Crisis” (Aya). A grassroots campaign led by Sudanese youth breaks global silence on the “forgotten war.” Activists are commandeering comment sections of major international football clubs on social media to post on atrocities in places like Al-Fashir.

MBN’s New China Tracker

A huge thanks to the MBN team — and to Min for leading our new China tracker!

Today, we launch The China Tracker, a practical, data-driven tool for our target audiences in the region. The Tracker brings together multilingual sourcing, clear visualizations, and concise analysis to make complex geopolitical trends easier to understand.

MBN has done a lot of great data reporting in the past. This time, Min is enlisting colleagues from Cairo to DC, in Arabic, Mandarin, and English.

Thanks for support and countless details to Matt, Leila, Abed, Youssef, Chams, Mohammad (our developer in Cairo), Paul and Victoria (our Mandarin contractors).

Today’s launch is the first in a five-part series. Expect updates coming soon on MBN’s new work monitoring China’s influence in the Middle East and North Africa.

Tell friends! They can see the package in Arabic. They can subscribe to the entire MBN newsletter suite in English or Arabic.

China’s presence is expanding faster than many analysts recognize — from arms sales and joint military drills to digital infrastructure, tourism flows, media influence, and crisis diplomacy. But information is scattered across languages, ministries, and news cycles.

The Tracker brings this data together in one integrated, bilingual (Arabic–English) platform, giving our audience a clear, consolidated picture for the first time.

The Tracker is a rigorously sourced, data-driven repository covering five core domains of China’s regional engagement: 1) military; 2) economy and trade; 3) diplomacy; 4) soft power and media; 5) cyber/technology/digital infrastructure. Each domain is updated continuously, enabling users to track what’s accelerating, what’s shifting, and where Beijing is investing strategic capital.

The first release on military engagement already shows a pattern — small footprint, rising speed.

Gulf and North African states are hedging; expanding links to Beijing in some areas, while trying to deepen relationships with Washington in others.

“We’re committed to helping our audience move past Communist Party propaganda,” says Min; “China’s rise is one of the defining foreign policy stories of our time, yet its growing role in the Middle East remains one of the least clearly understood pieces of a larger, global puzzle.”

We’re focused every day on how we can better serve the MBN mission, show value to our funder, and compete in a region crammed full of rivals, rife with disinformation and anti-Americanism.

My thanks. Always.

Sincerely, Jeff