From Damascus to Idlib, and from the streets of Gaziantep to Berlin and Stockholm, Syrians marked the first anniversary of the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Despite vast distances, the scenes were strikingly similar: large marches, revolutionary chants, and flags of the new Syria held aloft by hands. The faces that have been worn down by years of war are now rediscovering a long-awaited moment of joy.
For many, the day felt like a collective sigh of relieve — the end of a heavy chapter that lasted six decades. Yet beneath the noise of celebrations, a lingering feeling remains: one year is not enough to heal the wounds of more than 13 years of conflict. Much larger efforts — perhaps years of them — will be needed to rebuild and move forward.
In its first year after Assad’s fall, Syria saw promises of openness, early reforms, and political activity aimed at laying new foundations for governance. But the larger questions remain unresolved: Is Syria truly moving toward a state built on justice and freedom? Are security, effective and stable institutions, and launching a functioning economy now within reach? Or will these ambitions remain deferred, awaiting more favorable conditions?
Diverging Assessments
The fall of the previous regime on December 8, 2024, was a turning point. The interim authority quickly formed a transitional government, adopted a constitutional declaration, and organized indirect parliamentary elections. But the steps fell short of expectations for many Syrians who had anticipated deeper change.
Human rights groups, including Human Rights Watch, criticized what they described as “centralized decision-making” within the new authority, arguing that the political transition remains superficial and does not guarantee institutional independence.
Supporters of the interim government retort that the country has made meaningful gains — most notably external engagements, sanctions relief, and the removal of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from the list of terrorist organizations.
Wael Alwan, executive director of the Jusoor (Bridges) Center for Studies, says the fall of Assad “marked a decisive shift that moved Syria, after long years of suffering, into a new phase in terms of its regional and international positioning.” He says re-shaping foreign relations “is now one of the top priorities of the new Syrian authority, after the former regime failed to achieve it despite multiple opportunities.”
Alwan told Alhurra that the previous regime “was given multiple chances” to reintegrate globally and reduce political isolation — through attempted normalization and limited sanctions relief — but “it neither wanted nor was able to genuinely engage.”
Responding to the Human Rights Watch criticism, Alwan argues that the transitional phase “cannot be judged by ideal standards,” given the complex internal and external challenges the government faces, “especially Israeli interventions and ongoing security crises.”
He acknowledges that centralization of power as a shortcoming but says the government views it as a tool to manage the most sensitive files during the transition. Some Syrian analysts have called for a more inclusive system — such as a parliamentary model seen in other post-conflict states — but authorities argue that temporary centralization is needed before gradually moving toward decentralization.
Nawar Shaban, a researcher at the Arab Center for the Study of Contemporary Syria, says it was a “good” first year, adding that the process “has made significant progress, but still has much more to achieve on all fronts.”
He told Alhurra that no country emerging from a long conflict “can stand on its feet immediately,” citing Bosnia and Herzegovina, Congo, and Iraq as examples of post-war complexity. At the same time, he stresses that exhausted, post-conflict states “cannot afford the luxury of repeating mistakes” and must adopt clear mechanisms to prevent their recurrence.
In contrast, writer and researcher Abdullah Amin al-Hallak offers a more austere assessment. He says his evaluation of the transition period “cannot be separated from evaluating those running it today and those who held influence even before the fall.”
“We are dealing with Islamist groups, most prominently Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, whose history is well known to Syrians — and Iraqis — and one that goes back to a time when it was part of ISIS before rebranding,” he told Alhurra. “A jihadist Salafi group ruling a diverse country like Syria, with its sects and ethnicities, under a rigid Islamist model, cannot bring progress — not for the country and not even for Assad’s victims.”
The Dangerous Fracture
The U.N. Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria has warned that the transitional period remains fragile, especially amid sporadic sectarian violence in the south and coastal regions.
Hallak says, “There is an ongoing cycle of violence, particularly against minorities, often with the authorities’ involvement,” citing Human Rights Watch’s conclusion that the government’s inability — or unwillingness — to stop such abuses undermines confidence in its ability to maintain peace, security, and safeguard rights.
He points to “the horrific massacres” against Alawites and Druze in March and July of last year. “We are looking at two clear crimes, and the authorities’ handling of them signals responsibility and cover-up,” he says, citing the investigative committees’ outcomes and the leadership’s rhetoric. He notes that the transitional president, al-Shara, “even thanked tribal groups for their mobilization against the Druze — albeit indirectly.”
The sectarian clashes in the coastal region and in Suwayda killed, injured, and displaced thousands of Alawites and Druze.
Alwan argues that the government must send clear assurances to rival factions to help shift competition from armed confrontation to politics. “Once real elections and genuine power rotation are established, reverting to weapons becomes socially unacceptable — and the social contract takes over.”
Adam Coogle, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch, warned in a December 8 report that the opportunity for a transition that safeguards human rights is shrinking, saying the world’s relief over the end of Assad’s rule “should not become a new license for authorities to commit abuses.”
Still, Shaban notes that efforts to reform security are ongoing, particularly within the Interior Ministry, and says the a “unified Syrian national narrative has emerged,” despite some challenges.
In a speech Monday at the Damascus Conference Palace, al-Shara emphasized reconciliation as “the cornerstone of state stability, a safeguard against renewed violations, and a foundation for rebuilding trust between citizens and the state.”
Justice Deferred
In August, the head of Syria’s National Agency for Absentees estimated that more than 300,000 people disappeared over the decades of Assad family rule, including during the post-revolution war.
The agency, created last May to address the issue, has faced criticism from rights groups — including Human Rights Watch — for limiting its mandate to crimes of the previous regime while excluding abuses by other factions.
Despite the criticism, the agency’s media adviser, Zeina Shahla, told Reuters that the mandate “covers any missing Syrian, regardless of the circumstances.” She said the pace may seem slow, but the process “requires scientific and methodical work,” noting that exhuming mass graves will require extensive technical expertise and may not begin before 2027.
According to Reuters, six human rights groups expressed frustration with the government’s approach, while activists accuse the agency of “keeping documents pertinent to detentions under strict wraps”.
Hallak argues that “there is no serious pursuit of justice in this country,” pointing to former regime-linked businessmen and militia leaders accused of war crimes who “have rehabilitated themselves and now preach about ‘societal peace,’ while selectively targeting other former regime figures for arrest.”
Observers say that resolving the fate of the missing is essential for rebuilding trust between society and the state — a point al-Shara stressed in his conference-hall speech, where he pledged to uphold transitional justice to ensure accountability for all perpetrators, protect victims’ rights, and guarantee “the public’s right to truth and accountability.”
Reaching Out to the World
Syria has entered a new phase in its foreign relations since al-Shara assumed leadership of the transition. The new authorities are seeking to expand engagement with the West — especially the United States and Gulf countries — as part of a broader diplomatic repositioning.
Al-Shara told Fox News that his November visit to the White House and meeting with President Donald Trump marked “a new beginning for a strategic partnership,” stressing that Syria is no longer a threat to Washington but a “geopolitical ally” on regional issues.
Welcoming a delegation from Damascus on Sunday, al-Shara said the country had achieved “unprecedented regional and international balance not seen for a century,” highlighting “good” relations with the U.S., Russia, and China.
Regionally, he described ties with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and the UAE as “ideal,” and relations with Egypt and Iraq as “acceptable.”
In a previous interview with Syrian state TV, al-Shara said Assad’s fall removed “Iranian arms” from the region, leaving Syrian-Iranian relations in a “cooling phase,” insisting that Syria “seeks no tension with any state.”
A Continuing Humanitarian Crisis
The UNHCR estimates that more than 3 million Syrians have returned home since the fall of the regime, including 1.2 million from abroad. But 4.5 million refugees remain in neighboring countries, most living below the poverty line.
Despite escalating needs, the UN’s 2025 humanitarian appeal for Syria — totaling $1.5 billion — has been funded at only 33 percent, leaving millions without adequate shelter, basic services, or support for the coming winter.
Alwan says the government has tried over the past year to improve dire living and service conditions, but the challenges remain “immense.” He says the authorities have used the diplomatic opening to advance some the economy and some public services, “but the road is still long and requires far more time and effort.”
Shaban links the economic crisis to international sanctions but stresses the need to balance efforts on internal and external files, working on both “to establish a solid foundation for a more stable future.”
Alwan concludes that Syria is moving along the path of a successful transition, but progress depends on “lifting sanctions, halting interventions that fuel chaos, and giving the transition the space it needs to achieve its goals.”
