Uncertainty surrounds the issue of restricting weapons to the state in Iraq, as Iran-aligned militias announce a reversal of their long-standing opposition to surrendering their arms.
The militias Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, led by Qais al-Khazali; Kata’ib al-Imam Ali, led by Shibl al-Zaydi; and Ansar Allah al-Awfiya, led by Haidar al-Gharawi, have declared their support for placing weapons under state control. All three groups are designated as terrorist organizations by the United States.
Politically, Ammar al-Hakim, head of the Hikma Movement, and Nouri al-Maliki, secretary-general of the Dawa Party and former prime minister, have also expressed support for restricting weapons to the state.
Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Ameri endorsed the decision but conditioned its implementation on ending the mission of the international coalition.
By contrast, Kata’ib Hezbollah Iraq and Harakat al-Nujaba rejected relinquishing their weapons.
Supreme Judicial Council President Faiq Zaidan issued a statement thanking faction leaders who responded to his advice on restricting arms to the state.
“A Maneuver”
Independent Iraqi politician Intifad Qanbar described the development as “a form of maneuvering.”
He said the militias’ statements reflect an “Iranian method” of contradiction between rhetoric and action, likening it to Iran’s claim that it does not seek a nuclear weapon while continuing uranium enrichment and missile development.
Qanbar distinguished between militias with financial interests that favor easing the crisis and marginal groups, such as Kata’ib Hezbollah, that are less concerned.
He attributed the announcements to intense pressure from the U.S. President Donald Trump administration and to Israeli strikes that have damaged Iran-backed militias across the region.
According to Qanbar, U.S. pressure led to the release of Israeli-Russian researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov and frightened leaders of the Coordination Framework, prompting the shift in rhetoric.
Religious Authority: Iraqi or Iranian?
For years, Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, through his representative Abdul Mahdi al-Karbalai, has urged the integration of Popular Mobilization Forces volunteers into Iraq’s security forces and the confinement of weapons to the state. The PMF was formed in 2014 to fight ISIS following Sistani’s “collective jihad” fatwa.
Armed factions within the PMF did not comply. Most, according to Iraqi experts previously cited by Alhurra, are loyal to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rather than Sistani.
Over recent years, Iraqi fighters have joined Iran-backed militias in Syria’s civil war, carried out rocket attacks on U.S. interests in Iraq and Syria, and launched missile attacks on Israel between October 2023 and November 2024 in support of Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Political analyst Ramadan al-Badran said factions that lost influence in Syria and Lebanon—those ideologically aligned with Iran’s project—remain committed to it and are signaling publicly that they will not surrender their weapons.
“If tensions escalate further, Iran will not abandon its arms in Iraq,” al-Badran told Alhurra. “This creates the danger of armed factions splitting into two poles: one seeking to break away from Iran to preserve its future in Iraq, and another prioritizing ideology over influence.”
He warned that factions claiming readiness to integrate their weapons into the state would reverse course if their influence were threatened.
Repositioning
Political analyst Jaafar Ziyara said the declarations reflect a repositioning from military actors to political ones.
“The goal is to secure political standing ahead of any regional settlement that reduces the role of weapons, absorb U.S. and international pressure, and protect economic and administrative privileges accumulated within the state,” Ziyara told Alhurra.
He said divisions among factions stem from differing risk assessments, not ideological disputes, adding that rejectionist factions view weapons as essential to their survival and that Iran still needs some of them for regional military functions.
U.S. Position
The United States has for years pressed for the disarmament of Iran-aligned Iraqi militias.
In an October phone call with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed the need to disarm Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty and threaten American and Iraqi lives, according to a State Department statement.
After some militias announced readiness to disarm, U.S. Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya welcomed the steps, praising the role of Iraq’s religious authority.
“Statements of intent are not enough,” Savaya wrote on X. “Disarmament must be comprehensive, irreversible, and carried out within a clear, binding national framework.”
An Inevitable Risk
Strategic expert Alaa al-Nashou said all factions now face an inevitable threat and have little choice but to comply with U.S. demands.
“The United States allows no maneuvering,” he told Alhurra, citing detailed intelligence on both political and military movements.
He said disarmament would take time due to the volume of Iranian weapons and arms seized from Iraqi security forces during ISIS’s 2014 advance.
Al-Nashou said the militias possess extensive Iranian missile and drone arsenals, along with field missile factories in Jurf al-Sakhar and bases in the Samawah desert.
Mapping the Factions
According to Alhurra investigations, more than 70 Iran-aligned factions operate within the PMF, a number that may approach 100 when including previously unknown “shadow factions” that emerged after 2020.
At the top is the Badr Organization.
Badr Organization
Founded in 1982 by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as the Badr Corps, Badr fought alongside Iran during the Iran-Iraq war. Led by Hadi al-Ameri, it recognizes Khamenei as its religious and political authority and wields extensive influence in Iraq’s government and parliament. Reports indicate it holds large stockpiles of heavy weapons and missiles from Iran and the Iraqi army.
Kata’ib Hezbollah
Second on the list is Kata’ib Hezbollah Iraq, formed in 2005–2006 from Iran-backed militias. It is led by Ahmed al-Hamidawi following the 2020 U.S. strike that killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Qassem Soleimani. The group possesses missiles and drones and participated in operations against U.S. forces and in Syria’s civil war until the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.
Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq
Founded in 2006 by Qais al-Khazali after splitting from Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army, Asa’ib has conducted attacks on U.S. forces, including the 2007 Karbala attack that killed five American soldiers. It maintains close ties with Iran’s Quds Force and has both military and political wings, holding 27 parliamentary seats after the 2025 elections.
Other Factions
Saraya al-Salam militias affiliated with the Sadrist movement come next after these militias in terms of numbers and weapons arsenals, and are composed of three brigades. The Sadrist movement had followed the religious authority of cleric Kazem al-Haeri, who resides in Iran, until 2022, when al-Haeri announced his retirement from religious authority and called on his followers to emulate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
In recent years, the al-Mu’ammal militia and Ansar Allah al-Awfiya broke away from the Sadrist movement, both of which follow the Iranian supreme leader.
The Islamic Dawa Party, led by former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, owns four militias within the Popular Mobilization Forces: Quwat al-Sadr Brigade 15, Quwat al-Sadr al-Awal, Kata’ib Risaliyon, and Quwat al-Sadr Brigade 35. In its statements and speeches, the Dawa Party considers Ali al-Sistani its religious authority.
The Popular Mobilization Forces also include four militias affiliated with the Supreme Islamic Council, which was founded in Iran in 1982 and pledges allegiance to Iran’s supreme leader.
They are followed by the Waad Allah militia, affiliated with the Islamic Fadhila Party, which follows the religious authority of Mohammed Moussa al-Yaqubi.
Minority-affiliated militias are also present, including the Christian Babylon Brigades led by Rayan al-Kildani and the Nineveh Plains Forces, Brigade 33—known as the Shabak militias—in Nineveh province in northern Iraq.
Meanwhile, Sunni Arab tribes constitute the vast majority of the tribal mobilization units formed in 2014 from tribal volunteers to fight ISIS, which later joined the Popular Mobilization Forces.
