The withdrawal of Emirati forces from Yemen following an airstrike carried out by fighter jets of the “Coalition to Support Legitimacy” on Yemen’s Mukalla port may help ease the confrontation between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. However, the incident exposed a deepening lack of trust between the two oil-rich Gulf powers, whose disagreements have stretched on for years.
Within hours of the strike, calls emerged for the withdrawal of all Emirati forces from Yemen, while Saudi Arabia stressed that its national security is a red line.
In response, the UAE said it was taken by surprise by the strike before announcing that it would “voluntarily withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen.”
The crisis follows the sudden advance by UAE-backed separatists in southern Yemen in early December, reigniting years-long divisions between the two countries over several issues, ranging from oil quotas to geopolitical influence.
Reuters quoted a GCC source as saying the escalation resulted from a misperception stemming from talks held in Washington last November between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the war in Sudan.
The source added that high-level talks, including phone calls between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, took place in December but have yet to yield tangible results.
The dispute could complicate consensus on oil production decisions. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are currently preparing to take part in a videoconference meeting with other members of the OPEC+ alliance next Sunday.
Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at Chatham House, said, “Relations between the two countries have never been easy, but it appears the dispute has reached its peak after years.”
Developments in Yemen
Forces of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council launched a surprise offensive in December, seizing large swaths of territory in Yemen, including the strategically important Hadramawt province.
The council had previously been a key partner in the coalition fighting alongside Yemen’s internationally recognized government against the Iran-backed Houthis, who control Sanaa and the country’s northwest.
The council’s sweep across the south brought its forces closer to Yemen’s border with Saudi Arabia, placing Riyadh and Abu Dhabi on opposing sides.
Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE said they were holding talks with Yemeni groups to contain the situation, but the coalition carried out airstrikes in Hadramawt twice in recent days.
The Southern Transitional Council rejected calls by the Saudi-led coalition to withdraw from the areas it controls.
In a statement issued yesterday, the UAE said it had sought de-escalation since the council’s advance and denied any role in operations that could undermine Saudi security or target its borders.
Sudan: A Point of Contention
Quilliam said, “Both countries prefer to play down tensions in their relationship and stress that competition between states is natural. But the intensity of that competition has certainly increased over the past year and has begun to manifest itself across multiple arenas.”
Sudan is one such arena, as it has been mired in war and one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises since April 2023.
The so-called Quad group—comprising Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United States, and the UAE—has led diplomatic mediation efforts to resolve the conflict, but the war has continued unabated.
United Nations experts and members of the U.S. Congress have accused the UAE of backing the Rapid Support Forces, which are fighting the Sudanese army, though Abu Dhabi denies supporting either side.
Trump and bin Salman discussed Sudan during a meeting held in Washington last November.
The GCC source told Reuters that Emirati officials were angered after receiving what they described as “misleading information” suggesting that during the meeting, the Saudi crown prince not only called for additional sanctions on the Rapid Support Forces but also pressed for more direct sanctions on the UAE over its alleged support for the group.
The source said this mistaken impression led to the escalation in Yemen.
The UAE Foreign Ministry neither confirmed nor denied this account, instead referring Reuters to a statement issued Friday in which Abu Dhabi welcomed Riyadh’s efforts to support security and stability in Yemen and said it remained committed to supporting stability there.
Could the “Qatar Crisis” Be Repeated?
Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, wrote on the social media platform X on Saturday calling for “prioritizing dialogue, devising political exits, preserving friendships and alliances and strengthening them, and avoiding cutting the bonds of communication and goodwill at this critical stage, which we have experienced before and will face again in the future.”
Gargash did not explicitly refer to Yemen or Saudi Arabia in the post.
The Gulf region has experienced upheaval in the past. In 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Oman, and Egypt imposed an economic blockade on Qatar, accusing Doha of supporting terrorism—an allegation Qatar denied.
The latest wave of tension does not appear likely to lead to a repeat of the “Qatar blockade crisis.”
Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati academic, said, “We have 100% disagreements over Yemen, and the level of dispute has increased with the current escalation,” adding, “Allies clash—but they fix their differences and build on what unites them.”
