America Readies to Strike

Welcome back to MBN’s weekly deep dive into Iran from the premier Arabic-first American news and commentary platform on the Middle East.

The U.S. has assembled the largest contingent of air power in the region since the Iraq war, giving President Donald Trump the option to strike Iran as soon as this weekend, administration officials briefed last night.  As the region watches closely, we look at the key players behind-the-scenes in Iran who are advising Iran’s nearly 87-year-old leader.   We’ll also look at the crucial forty-day mark after the regime’s mass slaughter of civilians on Jan. 8 and 9 and Tehran’s attempts to tar the popular uprising as the work of “spies and Zionists.” We’ll also learn more about the state of the Iranian economy seven weeks after the protests were sparked by the collapse of the rial currency. And we’ll profile some more young people killed in the regime’s brutal suppression of January’s protests.

Sarina Esmailzadeh. Photo: u2.com

But first, the Irish rock group U2 released Days of Ash, a six‑track EP that includes “Song of the Future,” written to honor the Mahsa Amini protests and highlight the killing of popular 16‑year‑old vlogger Sarina Esmailzadeh, who was beaten to death by security forces in 2022. Check the song out here. Share your thoughts, analysis and predictions with me at ailves@mbn-news.com. If you were forwarded the newsletter, please subscribe. Read me in Arabic here, or on the flagship Alhurra Arabic-language and English-language news sites.

Quote of the Week

“The president has all options on the table.”

— U.S. Vice President JD Vance, following Tuesday’s talks in Geneva

 

TOP OF THE NEWS

Dancing in the Dark

Iran and the United States concluded their talks in Geneva with no deal, no further dates set, and no guarantees.

What might come next? Here’s my take:

Despite the military buildup, there is still a possibility that the two sides could agree on a tentative deal by mid‑March. This could evolve into a broader package linking nuclear caps to phased sanctions relief and an understanding on dialing back proxy attacks and missile brinkmanship. An agreement on the nuclear issue would set the maximum level of uranium enrichment Iran is allowed to reach, how quickly it could produce weapons‑grade uranium, what inspections look like, and how sanctions are phased. As things stand now, though, there is little sign that the differences between the sides are narrowing.

Tehran Times cover on Tuesday, the day of the Geneva talks. Photo: Reuters

The smart money in the region is on something kinetic playing out. The stage is now formally set for military strikes. The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group is still steaming toward the region to join the USS Abraham Lincoln, and even as the indirect talks were taking place in Geneva on Tuesday, Iran was staging live‑fire drills, briefly closing the Strait of Hormuz as it fired live missiles toward it. Fully one fifth of the world’s oil passes through the strait.

Who Runs Iran?

Today the key figures with a role in shaping the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy.

Abbas Araghchi. Photo: Reuters

Name: Abbas Araghchi
Age: 63
Title: Foreign minister; veteran nuclear negotiator

Interesting fact: Fought with the Revolutionary Guards as a teenager in the Iran–Iraq war and later earned a PhD in Islamic political thought from the University of Kent.

Political leanings: A regime loyalist from a conservative, religious merchant family, but generally cast as a pragmatic conservative who backs engagement with Europe and controlled negotiations with the U.S. rather than rupture.

Ali Akbar Ahmadian. Photo: Reuters

Name: Ali Akbar Ahmadian
Age: 65
Title: Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council; IRGC admiral

Interesting fact: Once studied dentistry at Tehran University before volunteering for the Iran–Iraq war, and is now seen as Khamenei’s key strategist, balancing outreach to Gulf states with confrontation with Israel.

Political leanings: A hardline IRGC ideologue who signed a joint warning by 24 IRGC commanders in 1999 threatening to intervene against then-President Khatami’s reformist government during student protests, champions an expansive role for the Guards “to protect the Revolution,” and pushes a securitized, conservative line on both domestic dissent and foreign policy. He was in Muscat for the recent talks there but not in Geneva this week.

 

Esmail Qaani. Photo: Reuters.

Name: Esmail Qaani
Age: 68
Title: Commander of the IRGC Quds Force

Interesting fact: Spent years running the Quds Force’s eastern front in Afghanistan and Pakistan, keeping such a low public profile that even his birthplace was disputed, and has only occasionally stepped into the spotlight, including at this week’s official 40‑day memorial.

Political leanings: A radical conservative hardliner and religious extremist by most accounts, fiercely anti‑U.S. and anti‑Israel, whose mandate is to deepen Iran’s missile program and proxy network rather than moderate the Quds Force’s regional posture.

People run following shots fired at a cemetery in Abdanan, Ilam Province, Iran. Photo: Reuters

Flashpoint: 40 Days after the January Massacres

This week marks forty days since the massacre of thousands of Iranians by the regime on Jan. 8 and 9. In overwhelmingly Shia Iran, the fortieth day after someone’s death (known as chehelom – چهلم in Persian) holds deep significance. The revolution that toppled the shah arguably kicked off when the killing of protesters in January 1978 led to huge demonstrations forty days later, and that demonstration resulted in more protesters being killed, setting off a chain of forty-day commemorations for slain protesters that generated fresh marches and new martyrs that spread across the country and carried through the whole year.

Now we are seeing a key struggle play out between the regime and the protesters over who controls the narrative of this week’s chehelom commemorations. Tehran is working hard to stave off a replay of the events of 1978, and consequently in their narrative, those killed in January were the victims of foreign‑backed “riots.” The regime has urged Iranians to mourn under state supervision at “official” forty‑day memorials in mosques and shrines. A major state-organized commemoration was held Tuesday at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla mosque in Tehran. As one pro-regime outlet put it, the official memorial was “intended both to honor the victims and to mark the resilience and solidarity of the Iranian people in the face of foreign-instigated unrest.” IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, who attended the event, said: “Those who supported the rioters and terrorists are criminals and will see the consequences.”

State-run site Alalam.ir reported on a Tuesday speech by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who spoke of mourning three groups killed last month: first, “the security forces, the Basij, the IRGC and the people accompanying them,” second,  “innocent passersby … because they were shot and lost their lives in the sedition that the enemy had set up,” and third, “the deceived who were simple and joined the seditionists.” Repeating the regime narrative that has prevailed throughout, he went on: “What happened was not the movement and unrest of a few angry young and old people, but rather a ‘planned coup.’” In his view, it was orchestrated by “the intelligence and espionage agencies of the United States and the Zionist regime” who provided “training, money and weapons.”

Iranians haven’t been entirely compliant with the regime’s desire to reframe the commemorations. Saudi site Asharq Al-Awsat reports that on Tuesday, videos verified by AFP showed crowds gathering and shouting “death to Khamenei” and “long live the shah.” The article says that another verified video showed a crowd chanting “One person killed, thousands have his back” in Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city.

There are reports of cemeteries having been closed to forestall possible anti-regime gatherings on the anniversary. Notable as well are reports of how some Iranians have changed how they grieve their loved ones killed during the brutal crackdown, including dancing and singing non-religious songs. Watch a vivid example here.

The r/NewIran thread on Reddit shows many videos of what are presented as anti-regime chehelom protests, but they are not verified. Videos verified by the New York Times show a heavy security presence to thwart unsanctioned chehelom demonstrations.

Local market in Tehran. Photo: Reuters

How Iran Has Changed Since the Protests: The Economy

The wave of strikes and protests that began in the Tehran bazaar on Dec. 28 were sparked by a collapsing rial and unpaid wages – but they quickly turned into a much broader challenge to the Islamic Republic’s rule. Bazaar merchants, industrial workers, and small‑town protesters blamed the leadership itself for the weakening currency and soaring prices.

Economic conditions have not improved. The shortages and queuing for basics have only become worse. As one woman told the BBC’s Lyse Doucet in Tehran last week, “the price of cooking oil has quadrupled; meat and chicken are the same. And unemployment is so high.”

The price of bread is currently kept low through government subsidies, but there have been calls in parliament to get rid of the support and let the price of bread rise to its market level. In a withering attack on this plan, an article in the hard‑line pro‑Khamenei mouthpiece Kayhan said “bread is an irreplaceable commodity, and we must desperately ask … all those who care about the country … to put the brakes on the government’s damaging actions. The effect of liberalizing the price of bread in these circumstances could be much more dangerous than an American attack.” It even goes so far as to say that those who advocate for the plan “are clearly ‘enemy agents.’”

Citing official statistics, moderate reformist Iranian news site Rouydad24 reported that food prices are rising at about twice the pace of overall inflation, with particularly steep increases for staples like bread, cooking oil, fruit, dairy, and meat. The outlet calculates that if the current monthly trend persists, overall inflation could exceed 100 percent over a year and food inflation could approach 200 percent.

As for the beleaguered rial, Iran’s official currency, a dollar at around 1.4 million rials was enough to shut the Tehran bazaar and launch the 28 December protests; today the street rate is closer to 1.6 million to the dollar. The economic factors that triggered the uprising are only getting worse.

 

CLOSER

 

As I noted in the most recent editions of the MBN Iran Briefing, behind the figures of thousands killed by the regime, there are names and lives. I’ll continue to profile some of them here.

Sourena Golgoun. Photo: ITV

Sourena Golgoun was 18 years old when he was killed in the northern Iranian town of Shahsavar. He was his parents’ only child. According to a relative, his last communication before he was shot in the heart from behind by security forces was “If I die and my death leads to positive change, I’m ok with that.”

Mansoureh Heydari and her husband, Behrouz Mansouri. Photo: BBC

Mansoureh Heydari and her husband, Behrouz Mansouri, were killed by security forces in Bushehr. The BBC report on their deaths says that he was shot in the head and died; Mansoureh, who’d been running away, went back to him and was shot as well. “The couple died side by side in the street, leaving behind two children aged eight and 10,” the BBC tells us.