‘Some Terrible People’

Welcome back. The world’s eyes are on what will happen next between the U.S. and Iran. Things are on the edge between diplomacy and escalation.

As the region watches, we will continue our look at the key behind-the-scenes players in Tehran who are advising Iran’s nearly 87-year-old supreme leader. And we’ll highlight new opportunities just announced by the CIA. 

Share your thoughts, analysis and predictions with me at ailves@mbn-news.com. If you were forwarded the newsletter, please subscribe. Read me in Arabic here, or on the flagship Alhurra Arabic-language and English-language news sites.

Quote of the Week

“They’re starting [the nuclear weapons program] all over. We wiped it out and they want to start it all over again and are at this moment again pursuing their sinister ambitions.”

– President Donald Trump

 

TOP OF THE NEWS

Photo: Reuters

President Donald Trump used his State of the Union address Tuesday evening to harden his public line vis-à-vis Iran.

He devoted only a short passage to the country, but in it he repeated two core claims. First, he said that “last June, the United States military obliterated Iran’s nuclear weapons program with an attack on Iranian soil.” Second, he said that his “preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain, I will never allow the world’s No. 1 sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon.” He also called the regime’s leadership “some terrible people.”

That message is meant for both Tehran and Congress: He is open to a deal, but only if Iran accepts tighter limits on and clearer no‑weapons language about its nuclear program.

A move by the U.S. Treasury Department yesterday turned the screws on Iran even further. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the sanctions arm of Treasury, has sanctioned more than 30 people, companies, and tankers tied to Iran’s “shadow fleet” of oil carriers and to procurement networks feeding its ballistic‑missile and advanced conventional weapons programs. Its accompanying statement explicitly presented this move as part of a maximum‑pressure campaign.

 

 

Next comes Geneva. The third round of indirect U.S.–Iran nuclear talks is scheduled for today, with Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi again leading the Iranian side and the Omanis playing go-between. Diplomats expect Iran to present a more detailed proposal on enrichment caps and monitoring, while the U.S. tests whether Tehran is prepared to offer compromises. If the talks stall, Washington is already indicating that more sanctions and possibly military options could follow.

Even as the world focuses on moves by Tehran, Iranian protesters were not quiescent. Over the weekend, students staged demonstrations at major campuses in Tehran and Mashhad, the first significant university protests since January’s crackdowns. Videos from BBC Persian and Iran International show students chanting against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whom protesters refer to as “the dictator,” the Revolutionary Guard, and the Islamic Republic itself, demanding justice for the thousands killed and calling for a political transition.

WHO RUNS IRAN?

Last week, I launched a new series called “Who Runs Iran?” and profiled three key figures with a role in shaping the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy. Today I’ll look at three more, focusing on people who have a role in Iran’s nuclear program.

Photo: Reuters

Name: Ali Larijani
Age: 68
Title: De facto crisis coordinator; former parliament speaker and ex‑nuclear negotiator

Interesting fact: One of several politically powerful brothers from a clerical family in Qom, he has been everything from Khamenei’s representative on the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) to head of state TV, giving him unusually deep ties across the clerical, security, and media establishments. He’s not exactly roughing it. Yesterday, in an article entitled “Members of Iran’s elite accused of hypocrisy over children’s lives in west,” the Guardian looked at the privileged existence of the Islamic Republic’s top figures, noting that “Larijani has a daughter living in the U.S. and two nephews in Britain and Canada, despite having long been one of the Islamic Republic’s most vocal critics of Western values.”

Political leanings: A conservative regime loyalist with a pragmatic streak, long seen as a dealmaker rather than a firebrand. Multiple recent reports, drawing on Iranian officials and security sources, say Khamenei has effectively made him the coordinator of Iran’s war‑readiness and “survival” planning. Though not a formal transfer of power, it sidelines President Pezeshkian and his cabinet in favor of a Larijani‑centered security core. Decision‑making on the issues that really matter – war, nuclear talks, internal repression – is being pulled even further away from elected institutions and vested in a small circle where Larijani sits alongside senior Guard commanders and the intelligence chiefs.

Photo: Reuters

Name: Mohammad Eslami
Age: 69

Title: Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)

Interesting fact: Eslami is a civil engineer and former roads and housing minister with a long background in Iran’s defense and aviation industries. In a sign that the regime values his loyalty and management skills over technical pedigree, he was kept on by President Pezeshkian as nuclear chief despite a lack of nuclear physics expertise.

Political leanings: A loyal functionary of the Islamic Republic’s security‑industrial complex, Eslami has become the public guardian of what Tehran calls its “right” to enrich uranium. He has overseen a rapid expansion of enrichment capacity in recent years while warning that Iran rejects any demands for permanent zero enrichment. He has hinted that Iran could further reduce its cooperation with the IAEA if tougher sanctions are brought back or the West is seen to renege on any new understanding.

 

Photo: Reuters.

Name: Ali Bagheri Kani
Age: 57
Title: Deputy for International Affairs at the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), former acting foreign minister and hardline nuclear negotiator

Interesting fact: A relative of Khamenei through marriage and a long‑time ally of national security czar Saeed Jalili, he served as Jalili’s deputy for foreign policy at the Supreme National Security Council. He also helped lead the uncompromising nuclear talks of the Ahmadinejad era that coincided with Iran’s deepening isolation and the build‑up of UN and Western sanctions.

Political leanings: A staunch opponent of the 2015 nuclear deal, he has repeatedly argued that negotiations are useful only as a tool to extract concessions without conceding on fundamentals. Bagheri Kani remains one of the regime’s key hardline voices on the nuclear file. He has been pushing back against Western pressure while working within Larijani’s orbit to make sure any Geneva understanding preserves enrichment, constrains inspections, and can be marketed at home as a rejection of Trump’s zero enrichment demand rather than a return to the 2015 framework.

Tehran’s Allies May Not Be Entirely Useless

 

Chinese anti-ship missiles on parade. Photo: Reuters

Under its “Look East” policy, Iran is looking to Russia and China to survive sanctions and deter a possible U.S. strike. Moscow and Beijing are not offering alliances, but they are giving Tehran tools to complicate American military planning.

With Russia, the most visible signal is at sea. Since Feb. 19, Iranian and Russian forces have been conducting joint naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and northern Indian Ocean, just as U.S. carrier groups were massing off Iran’s coast. The exercises feature Iranian navy and IRGC fast‑attack craft alongside at least one Russian corvette, rehearsing convoy protection, surface engagements, and what both sides call “maritime security” near one of the world’s key oil chokepoints. While the drills were under way, any U.S. operation would have unfolded with Russian warships in the vicinity, raising the risk of incidents, The message is not that Russia can or will fight a war for Iran, but that any U.S. operation would be conducted in an environment where Russia has an interest, raising the risk of incidents.

Less visible, but arguably more consequential, is a reported nearly $600 million deal for thousands of advanced Russian Verba shoulder‑fired missiles, designed to shoot down drones, cruise missiles and low‑flying aircraft. After seeing its high‑end fixed air defenses shredded last year, Iran appears to be shifting to cheaper, dispersed systems that can make any air campaign more costly without relying on vulnerable radars.

China’s contribution is focused offshore. Reuters reported Tuesday that Iran is close to a deal to buy Chinese CM‑302 supersonic anti‑ship cruise missiles, with talks that began at least two years ago, accelerating after last June’s twelve‑day Israel-Iran conflict. The CM‑302 flies at supersonic speed, skims low over the sea, and has a range of around 290 kilometers, making it difficult for shipborne defenses to intercept and well‑suited to targeting U.S. carrier strike groups and other high‑value vessels in the Gulf and Arabian Sea. The report’s sources say the deal is in its final stages, though numbers, price and delivery timelines remain unclear and Beijing could still hesitate, given the risk of escalation.

Taken together, the Russian drills and arms package and the prospective Chinese missile sale don’t give Iran great‑power protection, but they do deepen its ability to threaten U.S. forces at sea and in the air, and allow Tehran to show that any attack will play out in a more crowded, contested battlespace.

 Spooks for Hire

 

Photo: https://x.com/CIA/status/2026315891055436079

If you speak Persian and are looking for an opportunity, the CIA is recruiting. In posts on X, YouTube and Instagram on Tuesday, the agency greeted Persian-speakers with this post: “Hello. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) invites all persons with sensitive information or unique skills to contact us for cooperation. All information received from volunteers will be kept completely confidential. We hear you and we want to help you. Following this, we have the instruction for establishing a safe virtual communication. Please take necessary precautions to keep yourself safe considering your circumstances.” The post offers ways to make contact with the CIA in a safe manner, warning interested parties to use circumvention tools or email servers “not provided by a service provider in China, Iran, Russia or any other country that has hostile positions against the United States.” Although this is not a new strategy on the part of the CIA – it’s previously posted similar appeals in Korean, Mandarin, and Russian – the timing is noteworthy.

CLOSER

As I noted in the most recent editions of the MBN Iran Briefing, behind the figures of thousands killed by the regime there are names and lives. I’ll continue to profile some of them here.

Photo: Hanahr.org

Zahra Moradi was a young Kurdish woman who had moved from her village to Tehran, where she worked as a hairdresser and had recently married. On Jan. 8 she joined protests in the Tehransar district alongside her uncle and cousin. According to Kurdish human rights groups, security forces opened fire at close range; Zahra was struck in the head and chest and died on the spot, while her relatives were seriously wounded by pellets. Her body was transported back to Kurdistan under tight security, with local sources describing a heavily monitored burial meant to prevent any public mourning.

Photo: lemonde.fr

Sina Ashkbousi was a 17‑year‑old high school student from Tehran, an only child and a devoted Harry Potter fan. On the night of Jan. 8, he joined protests in the Tehranpars area with his parents and a group of young people. According to his aunt, he told his mother several times, “Mom, we’ve won, they’re not going to shoot us,” moments before security forces opened fire. His mother lost sight of him in the chaos and followed a long trail of blood before a stranger answered his phone and told her to come to the hospital. There, the family found Sina’s body, bullets having pierced his heart and abdomen; they later saw rows of other corpses in the same facility. His body was only returned days later, and relatives say the authorities forced the men of the family to sign a pledge to stay silent about the burial and accept an anonymous grave outside Tehran.