Images of figures associated with the “Axis of Resistance” are spread across much of Baghdad, the Iraqi capital, accompanied by slogans all proclaiming “victory,” as if the country were already at war.
Alongside these images are others showing fighters who were killed in various battles in Syria, Iraq, and perhaps even Lebanon. Most of them belong to the Iran-aligned movements Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba.
The two prominent Shiite factions recently opened recruitment for volunteers to fight alongside Iran should it come under a U.S. attack. As Washington builds up its forces in the region, anticipation is growing over the possibility that war could erupt.
These moves worry the government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and the Shiite “Coordination Framework,” a bloc that includes political forces as well as others that possess armed militias and is mired in a complex crisis with Washington over the nomination of the next prime minister.
The Framework is discussing—though without publicly acknowledging it—the risks of “dragging” Iraq into a potential war between Tehran and Washington. It fears that some Shiite forces may move in a direction contrary to its own preference of keeping Iraq away from the flames of conflict.
“Frankly, we are concerned that our brothers may pull Iraq into the anticipated war,” a senior figure in the Coordination Framework told Alhurra, referring to Kataib Hezbollah and al-Nujaba. He asked not to be named, saying he was not authorized to speak publicly.
The official spoke of what he described as “real indicators” that messages had been conveyed via Shiite politicians to armed factions, warning that the two groups would face “harsh” strikes if they decided to intervene on Iran’s behalf.
That account aligns with information provided to Alhurra by a senior Iraqi security official.
According to Iraqi security agencies, Iran-aligned factions have drawn up a list of targets, most of them in the Gulf region.
Those targets, the security official said, include U.S. military bases in Kuwait, as well as vital facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
The statements by the Coordination Framework official and the Iraqi security official’s information about the target list are consistent with remarks made by Iranian officials.
In an interview with India Today aired Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that “any confrontation could quickly expand beyond Iran and the United States, turning into a devastating regional war affecting several countries in the region.”
The Framework’s anxiety has prompted some of its leaders to try to engage Kataib Hezbollah and al-Nujaba in an effort to persuade them to stay out of any coming war. But according to the same Framework official, “these two factions listen to no one. They decide on their own.”
The two Shiite movements have been particularly active in signaling full readiness to enter any war involving Iran and in explicitly tying their fate to Tehran’s.
They are classified as elite arms of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the region and are believed to possess advanced weapons and technologies that threaten U.S. interests and those of its allies around Iraq.
Reports indicate that the two groups have missiles, drones, and workshops for weapons development.
By contrast, Sudani’s government is working to spare Iraq from any war and is seeking to replicate what it considers a success in avoiding the spillover of conflict that began on October 7, 2023, when the Palestinian group Hamas attacked Israel.
MBN Magazine:
Features, debates and analysis on the Middle East from unique voices. You won’t find these stories anywhere else.
A senior figure in the Popular Mobilization Forces was tasked with communicating with Kataib Hezbollah and al-Nujaba in an attempt to convince them to abandon plans to enter the war, but there have been no results so far.
Despite these efforts, the two Shiite factions appear undeterred in their push toward joining a potential conflict.
On Thursday, Kataib Hezbollah issued a statement calling on its followers to wage “a war of attrition that could be long-term” against the United States. It also warned the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq against “the consequences of colluding with foreign forces.”
Iraqi security expert Fadel Abu Raghif told Alhurra that “any faction ideologically tied to the doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih will be automatically activated if Iran comes under attack. Iraqi national security would be endangered, and the stability Iraq has experienced in recent years would be shattered if attacks were launched from Iraqi territory.”
Abu Raghif added that “any strikes originating from Iraqi soil would bring ruin to the efforts made by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to persuade Washington to restrain Israel from carrying out strikes against Iraqi factions over the past two and a half years.”
On Wednesday, platforms affiliated with Iran-aligned Iraqi factions published a statement attributed to the so-called “Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee.” The statement carried a threatening tone toward the United States and its interests in Iraq and spoke of an American “occupation” of the country. According to an Iraqi intelligence assessment, however, it also “signaled readiness to join the war alongside Iran if it were subjected to a U.S. strike.”
According to the senior Iraqi security official, Iraqi security services are monitoring movements in southern Iraq and tracking information about missiles that entered the country from Iran in recent months and could be used and launched from Iraqi territory.
The two Shiite factions have never hesitated to support Iran during crises and now openly declare their intention to defend it in what they describe as an “existential war,” as Washington continues to amass forces in preparation for the possibility of an attack on Iran.
Under Iran’s defense doctrine, confining any war within the borders of the Islamic Republic is unacceptable. Tehran therefore consistently seeks to widen the conflict to include Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria—before the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024.
With the political changes Iraq has witnessed since the October 2019 protests, some armed groups have shifted from weapons to politics, altering part of their internal and external rhetoric.
Most Iraqi factions—except for a few, including Kataib Hezbollah, al-Nujaba, and Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya—have entered the political process and are no longer part of Iran’s regional military operations.
Several factions, including Asaib Ahl al-Haq, a prominent Iran-aligned armed wing designated by the United States as a terrorist organization since 2020, have called for restricting weapons to the state and emphasized the importance of political engagement and the end of the role of arms—signaling a retreat by some groups from supporting Iran.
Former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif hinted at “disappointment” in this regard, saying during a speech at the Doha Forum in December 2025: “Our so-called proxies fight for their own interests, and we are the ones who paid the price.”
Ali Taher al-Hammoud, executive director of the Al-Bayan Center for Studies and Planning and author of Embers of Power: Iraq’s Shiites and the Ordeals of State- and Nation-Building After 2003, believes that “the Shiite Coordination Framework succeeded in persuading the factions to spare Iraq a confrontation with Israel and the United States during the 12-day war—before, during, and after the October 7, 2023 war.”
He added, “If the Framework has the ability to do so again, it will—by engaging the factions.”
According to al-Hammoud, ideological issues related to “resistance” are no longer a priority for many armed actors in Iraq, a reality reflected in the subdued press statements issued by factions about conditions in Iraq and the region.
Ultimately, the indicators point to a difficult trajectory that embarrasses the Iraqi government and the Coordination Framework as it focuses on forming a new government. Failure to persuade Kataib Hezbollah and al-Nujaba not to drag Iraq into war could mean the country’s transformation into a theater of devastating military confrontation.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Mustafa Saadoon
Mustafa Saadoon is an Iraqi journalist who has worked for several international and Arab media organizations. He covers politics and human rights.
