Iraq’s position on the war against Iran reflects layers of political and geopolitical accumulation stretching back many years. The transformations Iraq has experienced since 2003 have not fully overcome these dynamics.
The conflict is closely tied to internal balances and to political and sectarian identities that shape positions within Iraq.
This reality has made Iraq a stage where regional calculations intersect with internal divisions. Its geographic location and political relationships have placed it close to the axes of conflict in the region, while at the same time exposing it to conflicting international and regional pressures.
The conflict also extends into Iraq’s Shiite political community, where two different visions are emerging: one that emphasizes building a sovereign national state, and another that views Iraq as part of a broader regional political project.
This divergence is reflected in the positions of Shiite political forces, particularly as the war escalates between what is known as the “Axis of Resistance” on one side and Israel and the United States on the other.
Political analyst Nawal al-Moussawi says Shiite political forces feel growing concern about the possibility of losing their position in power, yet at the same time lack effective tools to deal with potential changes in the political landscape.
She told Alhurra that “these forces have not yet created a genuine opportunity to review their approach in relation to the public or to the rest of the political components, which could increase the level of risk in the coming period.”
Some Shiite forces see the need to support Iran politically or militarily, while others prefer to avoid direct involvement in any regional conflict.
This divergence is also evident within the ruling Shiite Coordination Framework. While some of its leaders lean toward more hardline positions toward the United States, another faction focuses on maintaining balanced foreign relations and avoiding escalation.
This contradiction has been particularly clear regarding the issue of the American military presence. The Iraqi government has conducted negotiations to gradually end the mission of the international coalition by the end of 2026, while armed factions linked to what is known as the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” have continued targeting U.S. interests inside the country.
Hamed al-Sayyid, a leader in the National Line Movement, a current that promotes the idea of the “New Shiites,” says that “Shiites are facing a difficult equation that requires balancing the logic of resistance with the sovereignty of the state.”
In an interview with Alhurra, he added that “the recent statement by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani regarding the war on Iran, which called for dialogue and for reviving the nuclear agreement in accordance with international rules, reflects an approach that urges dealing with the crisis within legal and diplomatic frameworks.”
According to al-Sayyid, “when the religious authority emphasizes adherence to international covenants and agreements, it is drawing a clear framework for the place of Shiites in the international system.”
He added that the religious authority wants to make clear that Shiites are not a force outside international law, nor a project that rebels against its rules, but rather part of an international order based on respect for sovereignty, agreements, and international legitimacy.
On January 28, 2026, Iraqi writer Ghaleb al-Shabandar—formerly a member of the Islamic Dawa Party—posted a message on his account on the platform X addressed to Shiite politicians, saying:
“Leave your eternal slogans behind and act with the cunning of politics. Just once, be statesmen and preserve this system, because many enemies are lying in wait.”
Meanwhile, the Sunni community is watching regional developments with both concern and anticipation. Some Sunni political forces believe that Iran’s distraction or the weakening of its influence in the region could open the door to rearranging the balance of political power within Iraq.
At the same time, however, there are fears that any security escalation in the region could destabilize the country, especially in provinces that previously witnessed armed conflict or extremist activity.
Atheel al-Nujaifi, a Sunni politician who served as governor of Nineveh when it fell to ISIS in June 2014, addressed a message to Sunnis urging them to take the initiative amid what he described as the weakening of Iran due to the U.S.–Israeli war against it.
He wrote on his X account:
“After the recent events that have plunged Iran, its influence, and its allies into a spiral whose results are becoming clear and whose outcomes are approaching, the time has come for us to play a real role in our Iraq. There is no longer a price to pay for demanding an end to Iranian dominance.”
He also wrote:
“The map of political influence is being redrawn across the entire region, and if we miss this moment, others will draw the boundaries of their influence at our expense and without taking our opinion into account.”
The Sunni political landscape faces the problem of fragmentation and the absence of unified leadership. Sunni forces remain divided among several political alliances such as Taqaddum, Siyada, and Azm, which weakens their ability to unify their position—especially as some Sunni factions are also supported by Iran.
Writer and journalist Walid Ibrahim, who worked for years as Al Jazeera’s bureau chief in Iraq, says:
“One of the main reasons for this fragmentation is that these forces remain prisoners of leadership rivalries. The National Political Council could have been a step in the right direction, but so far it has not been able to prove itself as a political force capable of representing the Sunni component.”
In an interview with Alhurra, he added that:
“The most important factor in turning Sunni electoral representation and the parliamentary forces that emerged from it into a negotiating power capable of protecting the interests of its constituency and its public is for other political forces—especially the Shiite Coordination Framework and the Kurdish forces—to deal with the council as a political force representing the Sunni component as a whole, rather than as fragmented groups.”
Amid these complexities, Baghdad is trying to maintain a policy of balance between the United States and Iran. During 2025, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani sought to strengthen relations with Arab states and attempted to play the role of mediator between some parties to the regional conflict.
However, this policy faces clear challenges, particularly as Iraqi territory continues at times to be used as a stage for reciprocal attacks between the parties to the conflict, whether through rockets or drones.
The debate taking place in Iraq regarding the war on Iran reflects a broader crisis related to the nature of the state’s political identity. While successive governments have attempted to consolidate the concept of national state, sectarian and political divisions continue to influence many decisions. As a result, the positions emerging on the war against Iran and other issues remain diverse rather than unified.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Mustafa Saadoon
Mustafa Saadoon is an Iraqi journalist who has worked for several international and Arab media organizations. He covers politics and human rights.
