Contrary to expectations, the Houthis have so far refrained from joining the military confrontation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, a development that has puzzled observers.
The group is widely known for its support for Iran and its close ties to Tehran. It quickly welcomed the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. Meanwhile, the group’s leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, said on February 28 that his movement stands in “full solidarity” with Iran and is “fully prepared for any developments.” However, he later moderated his tone.
On March 6, al-Houthi said that “fingers are on the trigger” should developments require it, describing the confrontation as “a battle for the entire nation, not for one party alone.”
Despite this political alignment, it has not yet been translated into direct military intervention.
Researcher April Longley Alley, senior fellow at The Washington Institute who specializes in Yemen and Gulf affairs, said in remarks to Alhurra that a debate is likely taking place within the movement over the costs and benefits of entering the conflict.
“On one hand, some may see conflict as inevitable, given that they are on Israel’s target list as an Iranian ‘proxy’ and because they believe this is a battle for the future of the region. Others may see that they have a lot to lose. If they engage, they will once again be the target of strikes from Israel, the U.S. or both. While they may think they can weather these attacks, it could open space for their adversaries inside Yemen to take advantage on the ground. Equally important, entering the war on the side of Iran while Tehran is attacking Saudi Arabia could close the door on a potential understanding with Saudi Arabia to end the Yemen war in a way that provides benefits to them,” she said.
“Ultimately the decision to enter the war resides with their leader, Abdulmalik al-Houthi,” Alley added.
Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), says the widely circulated question of why the Houthis have not entered the war “may be misleading to begin with.”
He argues that the group’s relationship with Iran is not one of absolute subordination but rather a flexible partnership shaped by circumstances and specific issues.
Speaking to Alhurra, al-Muslimi added that, unlike groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis always need a “local justification” to legitimize war before their popular base. For that reason, the best scenario for them would be for the first strike to come from Israel rather than from Yemen.
Al-Muslimi also noted that the group continues to benefit from the implicit truce with Saudi Arabia and from improvements at the port of Hodeidah since April 2022. This makes them less willing to risk the collapse of that arrangement or provoke Saudi Arabia simply in defense of Iran.
Similarly, Adnan al-Jabrani, a researcher in military affairs, said during a seminar organized by the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies that the Houthis’ delay appears “tactical” rather than a retreat from the option of joining the conflict.
He suggested that the group may be preserving its capabilities as a reserve card to be used later if the war expands or becomes prolonged.
At this point, the Red Sea emerges as a key factor behind this caution.
The Houthis understand that their ability to threaten maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea provides them with strategic and economic leverage far greater than simply launching a limited number of missiles toward Israel.
The group has previously disrupted global trade by targeting ships and creating widespread anxiety along major shipping routes. It is aware that this card becomes more valuable if used at a carefully calculated moment rather than as a rapid reaction in a war whose duration remains uncertain.
In Israel, however, this relative calm is not interpreted as retreat.
Hebrew-language media outlets have reported monitoring movements of launch platforms inside Yemen. In his remarks to Alhurra, al-Muslimi said these reports “align with information he has,” confirming that the Houthis are “preparing” and that “movements have taken place.”
Meanwhile, Yemen’s internationally recognized government does not view this delay as reassuring.
Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Shaye al-Zindani warned the Houthis against any “military adventures that serve the Iranian agenda,” as well as against using Yemeni territory as a platform to target neighboring countries or international interests. He argued that such actions threaten the security of Yemen and its people, as well as regional stability.
The United Nations, for its part, has focused on the potential cost of such a scenario for Yemen itself.
UN envoy Hans Grundberg stressed the need to protect Yemen from being drawn into “a new cycle of regional confrontations.” He said clearly that “no party has the right to drag the country into a wider conflict that would bring further suffering to the Yemeni people.”
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan, a Yemeni journalist and documentary filmmaker based in Washington, D.C., holds a master's degree in media studies.
