During the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, the Iraqi government managed to keep the country out of the regional conflict. But today, the situation appears entirely different.
Since U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran began on February 28, Iraq has witnessed a noticeable escalation in security tensions. It has effectively become the only country experiencing attacks from both sides—and within its own borders as well.
In the early hours following the outbreak of the war, sites belonging to militias were hit by airstrikes believed to have been carried out by the United States or Israel. In response, Iran-aligned armed factions launched attacks targeting Iraqi military bases as well as bases hosting U.S. forces in Erbil and Baghdad, in addition to oil facilities.
At the same time, Iran carried out drone and missile attacks against sites belonging to Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region.
This raises a pressing question: Has Iraq reached the point of no return and become part of the ongoing war in the Middle East?
Mersin al-Shammari, a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution, says Iraq has been, since 2003, a battleground for indirect competition and confrontation between the United States and Iran. That confrontation reached its peak in 2020 following the U.S. strike in Baghdad that killed Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of Iran’s Quds Force.
“With the growing activity of militias, we are now approaching a scenario where the level of confrontation could reach that point again—perhaps even surpass it,” al-Shammari told Alhurra.
Since the war began, attacks carried out by armed factions in Iraq have been limited to military targets, whether Iraqi or American, as well as oil facilities and airports in Baghdad, Erbil, and Basra.
However, the most significant escalation came with the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad last Saturday, the first such attack since 2023.
The Iraqi government described the incident as “a terrorist act” and pledged to pursue those responsible. The attack prompted U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to hold a phone call on Monday with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, during which Rubio condemned the “terrorist attacks” carried out by Iran and the armed factions it supports in Iraq. The two sides also discussed the importance of the Iraqi government protecting American diplomats and facilities.
For the first time since the war began, the United States acknowledged carrying out strikes against Iraqi armed factions, saying the actions were intended “to protect its personnel from attacks by Iran-aligned groups targeting its bases,” according to a U.S. defense official who spoke to Alhurra on Monday.
Tom Warrick, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said it is clear that the United States is no longer willing to tolerate militia attacks in Iraq.
“The Iraqi government must take steps to prevent Iran from waging its war against the United States on Iraqi soil,” Warrick told Alhurra.
During the previous war between Iran and Israel in June 2025, the Iraqi government received praise domestically and from regional and Western countries for successfully preventing Iraq from being drawn into the conflict.
Nevertheless, Iran continues to wield significant influence in Iraq, supporting armed militias—most notably Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba—both of which have declared their solidarity with Tehran and their readiness to launch attacks against U.S. interests in Iraq.
The effects of the current war have not been limited to the military and security sphere. They have also struck Iraq’s main economic lifeline: oil.
The war has halted most maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which Iraq’s oil exports—as well as those of other Gulf states—pass. At the same time, all foreign companies operating in Iraqi oil fields have left the country after their sites were targeted by drone attacks. These two factors have forced Iraq and other Gulf countries to reduce oil production to very limited levels.
Researcher and academic Ghalib al-Daami says that “Iraq, whether we like it or not, has become a central party in the conflict.”
He added:
“The halt in oil exports clearly aims to stop the flow of oil, because they believe that suspending Iraqi oil exports could help raise global oil prices, thereby putting pressure on the United States to stop the war.”
Even so, observers say it is unlikely that violence in Iraq will reach levels similar to those seen in Iran or Lebanon. Iran has been subjected to almost continuous aerial bombardment for about ten days, while areas in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs have come under Israeli airstrikes following a recent rocket attack by Hezbollah against Israel in “solidarity with Iran.”
Al-Shammari attributes this to the policy adopted by the Iraqi state and its leadership, which seeks to maintain neutrality and pursue solutions through international institutions.
“Iran-aligned militias in Iraq are not as powerful or as deeply entrenched as Hezbollah in Lebanon,” she said.
However, she noted that Iraq is currently entering a sensitive phase, as it is in the process of forming a new government, and political vacuums often lead to worsening security crises.
For this reason, al-Daami believes that Iraq’s “only hope” lies in forming a new government capable of monopolizing the use of arms.
“Otherwise, the country’s fate will remain tied to and dependent on the Iran-aligned axis. Whenever this axis is harmed, Iraq is harmed as well.”
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Ghassan Taqi
A journalist specializing in Iraqi affairs, he has worked with the Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN) since 2015. He previously spent several years with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, as well as various Iraqi and Arab media outlets.
