On the evening of Monday, March 9, U.S. President Donald Trump stood before reporters in Doral, Florida, justifying a move that might not have seemed ordinary at another time: easing some oil restrictions “until things stabilize” in the Strait of Hormuz.
The announcement came days after Washington allowed India to purchase shipments of Russian oil that had been stranded at sea, in an attempt to calm supply disruptions following the shock the war had sent through energy markets.
For Moscow, these developments appear to present an opportunity for its sanctioned oil, as European officials warn that the war could ultimately benefit Russia. European Council President António Costa said Moscow is the “only winner” of the conflict so far.
By March 10, Russia’s Urals crude was being offered at around $76 per barrel, up from roughly $45 just two weeks earlier, even as shipping and insurance costs increased.
And here begins Russia’s story in this war.
Putin chairs a meeting on energy markets at the Kremlin, Moscow (March 9, 2026 – Reuters)
How Does Moscow View the War?
Publicly, Moscow calls for de-escalation and presents itself as a mediator capable of speaking with all parties. In early February, the Kremlin said Russia was still trying to reduce tensions around Iran, while Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned on February 19 that any new U.S. strike could lead to “serious consequences.”
After the war began, Russia’s Foreign Ministry accused the United States and Israel of trying to drag Arab states into a wider confrontation.
But behind this diplomatic rhetoric calling for calm, Russia’s calculations appear more complex.
Bob Hamilton, a former U.S. Defense Department official, told Alhurra that the conflict represents a double-edged equation for Moscow. The war, he said, is like “a sword with two edges—it has positive aspects and negative ones.”
On one hand, the conflict could give Moscow an opportunity to benefit from higher energy prices and divert Western attention away from Ukraine. On the other, it exposes the limits of Russia’s eroding influence in the Middle East.
“Iran was the second pillar of Russia’s strategy in the Middle East alongside Syria, and now Moscow has lost both,” Hamilton added.
The effects of this distraction are not limited to Ukraine or the Middle East. Some analysts suggest the war offers Moscow an opportunity to test U.S. readiness in other theaters as well. In this context, an analysis published by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) suggested that Russian patrol aircraft flying near Alaska on March 4 could be part of a broader pattern aimed at testing U.S. response speed while Washington is preoccupied with the war with Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz and Russia’s Gains
A look at the Strait of Hormuz alone explains why.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes through the strait. Disruptions to shipping during the war pushed Brent crude from an average of $71 per barrel on February 27 to about $94 on March 9. After briefly jumping to nearly $120 per barrel on Monday, prices fell back below $90.
In this context, Anna Borshchevskaya, a researcher at the Washington Institute, told Alhurra that Russia sees the war as carrying “risks, but also many opportunities,” at least in the short term, in a country where oil and gas still account for more than one-fifth of budget revenues.
According to OPEC data, Russia’s oil production in 2025 reached about 9.129 million barrels per day, while its oil exports that year totaled 238 million tons, equivalent to roughly 4.8 million barrels per day, about 80 percent of which went to China and India.
At the same time, the Russian government expects energy revenues of about 8.92 trillion rubles in 2026, equivalent to more than $110 billion.
These figures explain why the war matters so much to Moscow.
Borshchevskaya believes that threats to Gulf shipping or energy infrastructure could “certainly” drive oil and gas prices higher in ways that benefit Russia’s sanctions-hit economy — “and that is already happening.”
The war has raised the price of Urals crude, pushed Washington to slightly ease some restrictions, and forced Asian buyers to look at Russian oil not only as a cheaper option but also as a more available one when Gulf supplies become uncertain.
Russia’s Dilemma
But the most sensitive question in the story concerns whether Russia is merely watching and benefiting — or whether it is helping Iran behind the scenes.
The Washington Post, citing U.S. officials, reported that Russia provided Iran with information that could help it target American assets, including ships and aircraft in the region.
Hamilton believes such support would not be surprising. However, these reports have so far remained in the realm of statements attributed to officials, without detailed public evidence.
On March 10, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said in an interview with CNBC that Russia had informed Trump it was not sharing information with Iran about U.S. military assets.
This ambiguity serves Moscow. It appears to want to support its Iranian partner enough to keep it standing, but without sliding into a direct confrontation with Washington or risking its relations with other partners in the Gulf.
Still, the war does not appear to be an unqualified gift for the Kremlin.
Risks Facing Moscow
A wider disruption in the Gulf could overturn Russia’s calculations. Quick price gains could turn into a broader economic burden if regional economies are damaged or global demand for energy weakens. At the same time, weakening Iran would threaten one of the key pillars of Russian influence in the Middle East.
Developments on the ground also suggest the war could affect even Russia’s direct interests inside Iran, after reports indicated Moscow had begun evacuating some personnel working on its projects there as fighting intensified.
Dr. Robert Mogielnicki, a nonresident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told Alhurra that Gulf economies are “sensitive but not yet fragile,” and that governments will act to protect strategic sectors and ensure energy continues to flow.
That, he said, would limit the chances that the disruption turns into a prolonged crisis giving Moscow open-ended gains.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan, a Yemeni journalist and documentary filmmaker based in Washington, D.C., holds a master's degree in media studies.
