After a turbulent week in Baghdad, the situation in the capital — at least for now — appears to have calmed somewhat.
Since Wednesday night, scenes of drones roaming the skies over the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad have disappeared, as air defense systems attempted to intercept them. While interceptions were often successful, some drones had struck targets inside or near the U.S. diplomatic compound.
The escalation coincided with a clear shift in the tactics of attacks targeting Iran-aligned armed factions in Iraq.
At the start of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, several sites belonging to those factions across Iraq were hit by airstrikes of unknown origin. Over the past week and into early this week, however, the strikes targeted first- and second-tier leaders as well as Iranian advisers, according to Alhurra sources.
Neither the United States nor Israel has claimed responsibility for the attacks. However, a U.S. defense official told Alhurra on March 9 that U.S. forces had carried out strikes in Iraq since the launch of Operation “Epic Fury” on Feb. 28 “to protect its personnel from attacks by Iran-aligned armed groups targeting its bases.”
In contrast, attacks by armed factions on the U.S. Embassy have stopped, and those targeting other U.S. interests in Iraq have also declined over the past 24 hours, suggesting that the factions may be reassessing their approach.
“Washington likes targeting leaders because it allows it to say the strikes are strategic and have a real positive impact on adversary behavior,” former U.S. Ambassador James Jeffrey told Alhurra.
However, there is no guarantee that the behavior of Iran-aligned factions will change following such strikes, Jeffrey said, “because these organizations, especially ideological ones, have deep benches of experienced and motivated mid-level leaders capable of rising quickly and filling the vacuum.”
Since the outbreak of the war with Iran, Iraq has become an active theater of conflict, amid growing fears that the situation could reach a point of no return in a country already grappling with economic crises and divisions over the role of Iran-aligned factions.
Renad Mansour, a researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center, said on the social media platform X that as pressure on these factions increases, groups within the “Axis of Resistance” are activating a “survival mode,” reshaping the region’s future security landscape — a reference to the targeting of their leadership.
Victoria Taylor, a former U.S. diplomat and director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council, said that “militias are not deterred by the killing of lower-ranking leaders or the destruction of their logistical sites, which is why we may see escalation by the United States.”
These developments coincided with a surprise move announced Wednesday by Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq — designated a terrorist organization by the United States — to suspend its attacks on the U.S. Embassy for five days under certain conditions.
The conditions outlined by the Iran-aligned group included “a U.S. commitment not to strike residential areas in Baghdad and other provinces.”
The Harakat al-Nujaba movement and Kataib Hezbollah are among the most prominent factions targeting U.S. interests. They have entered the war directly alongside Iran and have carried out dozens of strikes inside and outside Iraq.
According to information obtained by Alhurra from Shiite political sources, the suspension of attacks followed efforts led by the Iraqi government, supported by influential parties within the Shiite Coordination Framework.
As of Thursday evening, the details and outcomes of these efforts remained unclear, although three sources within the Iraqi government and the Coordination Framework told Alhurra there was a mutual pledge not to carry out attacks.
For its part, U.S. Central Command, responding to a request from Alhurra about whether such a pledge exists, said only: “We have nothing to provide on this matter.”
The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and the U.S. State Department did not respond to similar requests sent by Alhurra via email.
On Tuesday, Alhurra reported that Iranian advisers were killed in Iraq in an airstrike targeting a house in Baghdad’s Jadriya district. Earlier, according to preliminary information, Kataib Hezbollah Secretary-General Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi survived a U.S. strike targeting him on March 14 in the Arasat area in central Baghdad.
Since the start of the war, the Iraqi government has pledged to pursue those responsible for attacks on diplomatic missions, including the U.S. Embassy, describing them as “terrorist groups.” On the ground, however, there have been no tangible moves to confront them.
Former Iraq representative to the United Nations Feisal Istrabadi told Alhurra that militias in Iraq have long functioned as a “fifth column” within the state — a force that weak government institutions are unable to dismantle.
Istrabadi, who is also the founding director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East, said he believes “the United States is the only actor capable of confronting these militias militarily, given that the current Iraqi government is unable to engage them militarily or politically without risking a slide into civil war.”
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Alhurra
Ghassan Taqi
A journalist specializing in Iraqi affairs, he has worked with the Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN) since 2015. He previously spent several years with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, as well as various Iraqi and Arab media outlets.
