On the eve of the war, Iran had never looked more vulnerable. But by the end of week three, despite losing its first- and second-tier leaders, Tehran is as defiant and menacing as ever; the regime still stands. Who’s left of the authorities, and who is doing the actual ruling? Check out the latest MBN Iran Briefing podcast with Andres Ilves, Matthew Kaminski and Leila Bazzi. Listen here or watch here.
As the repercussions of the war reverberate globally, Asia’s major powers are adjusting their responses. MBN China Tracker Editor Min Mitchell sat with Randall Schriver, Chairman of the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security, to examine how developments in the Persian Gulf are affecting Chinese, Japanese and U.S. policy. Stay ahead of the curve: check out MBN’s China Tracker.
Also this week, MBN journalists take you inside Iranian opposition conversations about the future, explain why the Gulf countries aren’t fighting back and explore the current tensions inside Lebanon.
The Friday Briefing is also published in Arabic. If you were forwarded this newsletter, subscribe here. We’d love to hear from you at thebriefing@mbn-news.com.
This Week on MBN
Day After the Islamic Republic
For decades, the Iranian regime has warned people about the dangers of a civil war breaking out if it was overturned. Iranian opposition activists say the security agencies are now spreading rumors of internal strife to frighten people and deter a popular uprising during the current crisis. While ethnic tensions exist, Dalshad Hussein reports that opposition movements are calling for an inclusive transitional government, dialogue among ethnic groups, and international support to prevent internal conflict in a post-regime Iran.
Read the article here
MBN Iran Briefing Podcast
Expert conversations unpacking the latest developments in Iran and how they are reshaping security, energy markets, and geopolitics across the Middle East.
Why the Gulf Isn’t Hitting Back
More than 2,000 Iranian missiles and drones have targeted Gulf states since the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28. Yet Gulf governments have avoided direct military retaliation. MBN’s Ezat Wagdi and Sakina Abdallah explain that the decision reflects three strategic calculations: avoiding a wider regional war, the limited military value of offensive strikes, and the enormous economic risks of escalation.
Read the article here
Lebanon At War With Itself
A viral social media debate exposes deep divisions within Lebanese society amid ongoing conflict, as explored by MBN Magazine contributor Joumana Haddad. A seemingly ordinary Beirut nightlife video posted on social media instigated a battle in the comment section, with accusations flying between those living “normally” and those bearing the cost of war. Haddad argues the divide goes beyond politics, reflecting clashing fears, identities, and narratives around Hezbollah.
Read the article here
Gulf Economies Biggest Hidden Risk
The war has raised fears that millions of foreign workers – who comprise up to 95% of the private-sector workforce in some Gulf states – could begin leaving, threatening the labor backbone of their economies. MBN’s Ezat Wagdi explains that the consequences would also hit labor-exporting countries like India and the Philippines, where remittances (cross-border money transfers often from workers to their families) form a major share of national income.
Read the article here
Israel’s New Strategy for Lebanon
Israel expanded its ground operations inside southern Lebanon and intensified its air and artillery strikes. At the same time, former Israeli minister Ron Dermer is reportedly leading a parallel diplomatic effort with Lebanon. Analysts tell MBN’s Yehia Qasim the military campaign may also serve as leverage in potential negotiations.
Read the article here
When Disinformation Becomes a Weapon
Randa Jebai explores how misinformation has emerged as a powerful weapon in the Iran war. One widely circulated clip, falsely presented as Iranian rockets striking Tel Aviv, was later revealed to be unrelated footage of fireworks from a sporting celebration. In this video, Jebai argues that disinformation can ultimately be more dangerous than weapons themselves because it distorts reality, fuels panic, and influences public opinion on a massive scale.
Watch the video here
Closer
“Nobody is ready to put their people in harm’s way in the Strait of Hormuz. We have to find diplomatic ways to keep this open.”
—EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas
