As the war in the Middle East expands and its repercussions extend to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, international experts in agriculture and economics are closely monitoring what may happen to fertilizer supply chains on which millions of farmers worldwide depend.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical arteries for global trade—not only for energy, but also for nitrogen-based fertilizers. Gulf countries and Iran rank among the world’s leading producers of ammonia and urea, both essential components in the production of nitrogen fertilizers that modern agriculture relies on. Any disruption to export flows through this maritime corridor could directly affect the availability of these materials in global markets, particularly during the planting season in the Northern Hemisphere.
However, the picture is more complex than a simple supply risk. Tensions in the Gulf could also open the door to a redistribution of influence in the global fertilizer market, with other players potentially stepping in to fill part of any gap—most notably Morocco.
According to David Laborde, Director of Economics and Agriculture at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), modern agriculture depends on three main fertilizer components: nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Nitrogen fertilizers are primarily produced from natural gas, while phosphate fertilizers rely on phosphate rock.
FAO data indicate that the world consumes more than 190 million tons of agricultural nutrients annually, including about 110 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers, 45 million tons of phosphorus, and 40 million tons of potassium.
Nitrogen fertilizers are the most sensitive to geopolitical fluctuations because they depend heavily on natural gas, making their production concentrated in energy-rich countries.
In this context, Laborde highlights the pivotal role played by Gulf countries in the global market. Alongside Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain are major producers of nitrogen fertilizers, particularly urea and ammonia.
Market estimates suggest that five Gulf countries, along with Iran, account for more than one-third of global urea exports and roughly a quarter of global ammonia trade.
Urea, in particular, is one of the most widely used fertilizers worldwide, providing a concentrated source of nitrogen essential for crop growth. Any disruption to its export could lead to disturbances in agricultural markets, especially in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Laborde notes that the Gulf’s importance is not limited to production volumes but also extends to export logistics. “A significant share of nitrogen fertilizer exports passes through the Gulf,” he says, “and any potential disruption to navigation in the region could affect the flow of these products to global markets.”
Despite these risks, Laborde believes global markets may retain some capacity to adapt. “The world is unlikely to face an immediate shortage of fertilizers,” he says, “but we could see price volatility or shifts in supply sources.”
In contrast, another player could gain greater importance if disruptions occur in the nitrogen fertilizer market: Morocco.
Morocco holds nearly 70 percent of the world’s known phosphate reserves, making it a strategic player in the phosphate fertilizer market.
This sector is led by OCP Group, one of the world’s largest fertilizer companies. The company produces around 35 million tons of phosphate rock annually and more than 12 million tons of phosphate fertilizers. Morocco exports its agricultural products to more than 160 countries, positioning it as a key supplier in global fertilizer markets, particularly in Africa, Europe, and Latin America.
Laborde notes that phosphate represents a different element in the fertilizer market equation. “Morocco is a major player in the phosphate market, which is less tied to natural gas compared to nitrogen fertilizers,” he says. However, he adds that phosphate alone cannot compensate for potential shortages in nitrogen fertilizers. “Fertilizers rely on a balance between nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Any disruption in one of these components can affect the entire agricultural system.”
In addition to Morocco, China is another player that could influence the balance of the global fertilizer market. However, in recent years, Beijing has imposed restrictions on fertilizer exports to protect its domestic market and ensure supplies for Chinese farmers.
Laborde points out that such policies may reduce the global market’s ability to respond quickly to disruptions. “Some major fertilizer-producing countries have imposed export restrictions in recent years, which could make adapting to geopolitical shocks more complex.”
Fertilizer markets have already experienced significant disruptions in recent years, particularly following the war in Ukraine in 2022, which affected exports from Russia and Belarus.
That crisis led to sharp increases in global prices and had a particularly severe impact on developing countries that rely on agricultural imports. Laborde warns that a series of global crises—from the COVID-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine—has placed many fragile economies under significant financial strain, making them more vulnerable to any new shock.
Today, some experts fear that instability in the Middle East could place additional pressure on the market. However, Laborde believes the situation remains under control for now. “Global agricultural markets have become more experienced in dealing with shocks. We may see price fluctuations, but it is too early to speak of a widespread supply crisis.”
He adds that not all countries face the same level of exposure. Countries that depend heavily on fertilizer imports are likely to be the most vulnerable to volatility. Among those that may face greater pressure, according to Laborde, are countries in South Asia such as Bangladesh and Pakistan; countries in the Middle East such as Jordan and Turkey; and countries in East Africa such as Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, where millions already suffer from high levels of food insecurity.
Ultimately, the potential fertilizer crisis highlights a reality often overlooked in public debate: global food security depends not only on agricultural production, but also on the geopolitics of natural resources. Between natural gas in the Gulf, phosphate in Morocco, and trade policies in China, a complex network is taking shape—one that will determine the future of global agriculture.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Randa Jebai
Randa Jebai is an award-winning journalist with more than 20 years of experience. She joined Alhurra TV’s investigative team in 2020, earning honors from the AIBs, New York Festivals, and the Telly Awards. She previously worked with major Lebanese outlets and holds master’s degrees in law and journalism.
