Bab al-Mandeb: The Houthis’ Strategic Lever

Although the Houthis have not announced full engagement in the current war against Iran, their attacks on shipping have become a calibrated tool of pressure—reflecting an ability to influence events without the need to actually close the strait.

Iran understands the value of this weapon well.

“The capability is no longer in doubt. 2023 was a successful test for the Houthis,” said Yasmin al-Iryani, a researcher at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, in remarks to Alhurra. She added that operations are now being conducted “in coordination with Iran and other actors,” and that such a move could trigger broader military responses, as “closing the strait would be seen as direct escalation and could prompt strikes from the United States and Israel, and possibly push regional actors to respond.”

Closure or Disruption?

Available indicators suggest that the Houthis possess a real ability to disrupt, but they still fall short of achieving full and sustained control over the strait.

Analyses by the International Institute for Strategic Studies indicate that disruption and control represent two different levels of military action. Meanwhile, a report by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy describes Houthi actions as “escalating disruption” rising to the level of “selective denial,” without reaching full control.

Salvatore Mercogliano, an associate professor at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, told Alhurra that the real issue is not only the Houthis’ ability to carry out attacks, but how shipping and insurance companies will respond to them.

The numbers clearly reflect these concerns. Just days after the war with Iran began, and as attacks spread to Gulf states, Reuters reported increases exceeding 1,000% in some insurance coverages in the region.

The Liberia-flagged, Greek-managed vessel MV Magic Seas after it was blown up by the Houthis (July 8, 2025).

What Are the Houthis’ Tools?

Houthi capabilities have evolved significantly since the start of the Yemen war in 2015.

The threat emerged early in 2016, when a missile attack near Bab al-Mandeb prompted the U.S. destroyer USS Mason to fire defensive missiles—an incident described at the time by retired naval commander Brian Clark as “a very big event.”

Since then, multiple reports—including studies by the International Institute for Strategic Studies—indicate that the Houthis have developed a “hybrid” arsenal. This includes anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles, loitering attack drones, and explosive unmanned boats, with a clear reliance on Iranian models adapted locally. What is seen today in the Strait of Hormuz is not very different from what could appear in Bab al-Mandeb.

In missile terms, Houthi strength lies in their ability to threaten from the coast across varying distances, rather than guaranteed precision strikes, given the challenges of targeting and tracking in an open maritime environment.

Drones have provided them with a cheaper and more flexible tool—used either for reconnaissance and targeting or for direct attacks—complicating defenses and placing pressure on maritime protection systems.

Unmanned or explosive boats remain particularly concerning due to their low-cost relative to the expensive defensive responses they require.

Even naval mines—despite the absence so far of a large-scale deployment campaign—remain a likely option in escalation scenarios. Their psychological and operational impact can exceed their actual numbers, given the difficulty of detecting and clearing them, as warned by international experts regarding risks to commercial shipping and maritime routes.

The oil tanker Cordelia Moon burns after being struck by a missile in the Red Sea off the port of Hodeidah in Yemen, according to footage released by Houthi media on October 1, 2024.

What If Bab al-Mandeb Is Closed?

The answer did not come from the Red Sea—but from the Moroccan port of Tangier, Africa’s largest container port.

There, the port’s director general said they “expect a potential increase in the number of ships docking,” an early signal of global trade route shifts even before any actual closure occurs.

With rising tensions in the Middle East and the expanding confrontation between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other, shipping companies have begun acting according to worst-case scenarios rather than best-case expectations—redrawing the maritime map.

Major shipping companies such as Maersk and CMA CGM announced just days after the war began that they would reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through Bab al-Mandeb.

A longer route—but, in their view, a less risky one.

The Strategic Importance of the Strait

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait—a narrow waterway no more than 29 kilometers wide—represents a vital artery and maritime junction linking Asia and Europe via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Around 12% of global trade passes through it.

Any incident there can affect global markets, disrupt supply chains across key sectors, increase logistics costs, and force companies to resort to alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope.

Such rerouting typically adds between 10 and 14 days to shipping times. In the early days of the war, shipping companies imposed additional fees ranging between $1,500 and $3,300 per container, sometimes reaching $4,000 for certain shipments.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also shows how quickly energy markets react to risks in Bab al-Mandeb. Oil flows through the strait rose from about 6.2 million barrels per day in 2018 to nearly 8.7 million barrels per day in 2023, before dropping to around 4 million barrels per day in 2024 amid escalating attacks and rerouted shipping following the outbreak of the Gaza war.

“Any attack… could effectively be directed at Saudi Arabia, as the main exporter through the port of Yanbu,” Mercogliano said.

“And if the Houthis take a step in this direction, the impact may not be limited to drawing U.S. and Israeli strikes on Yemen—it could also push Saudi Arabia itself to respond,” al-Iryani added.

The article is a translation of the original Arabic.