The conflict in southern Lebanon has entered its most dangerous phase in decades. On March 29, 2026, the Israeli government made a decisive move to expand its ground operations, followed by a clear declaration from Defense Minister Israel Katz outlining the contours of a “new reality.” That vision includes the establishment of a buffer zone extending to the Litani River, the complete demolition of border villages, the displacement of their residents, and preventing the return of hundreds of thousands of displaced Lebanese to their homes.
Katz’s framing of the situation — invoking what he described as the “Rafah and Beit Hanoun model” in the Gaza Strip — signals an attempt to redraw the map of the region, reportedly with a green light from Washington, with the stated aim of undermining Iran’s regional proxies, according to Israel.
What Israel means by a “buffer zone” is the carving out of a strip several kilometers deep inside southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah rockets or fighters from reaching northern Israel.
However, this strategy raises what is known as the “war of attrition trap” — the risk of being drawn into a prolonged conflict in which a smaller force, such as Hezbollah, seeks to drain the resources and manpower of a stronger adversary — in this case, Israel — through hit-and-run attacks and continuous ambushes.
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Brig. Gen. (res.) Eran Ortal of the Israeli army warned of this scenario in remarks to Alhurra. Remaining inside Lebanese territory to secure the buffer zone would turn Israeli soldiers into easy targets for daily attacks, potentially transforming a “tactical victory” into a “strategic defeat” over time as casualties accumulate.
In Ortal’s view, Israel’s current battlefield superiority is not in doubt, particularly given what he described as an unexpected “fragility” within Hezbollah’s structure.
He described Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force fighters as “the last of the Mohicans” — the party’s remaining core elements who gained experience in Syria during the Assad era under Russian air cover. Today, however, they are confronting a very different military machine, which he said has led to a collapse in their morale.
Ortal acknowledged that achieving a decisive outcome would be difficult. The fighting, he said, is concentrated within “ground fortresses” that are in reality mosques, village homes and municipal buildings, at a time when the Israeli Air Force is focused on the “larger objective” of Iran’s nuclear program, leaving very limited air support for ground forces in Lebanon.
On the other side, retired Brig. Gen. Yaarob Sakhr of the Lebanese army sharply criticized the Lebanese state, arguing that the problem lies not in Israel’s strength but in the “absence of the Lebanese state.”
Speaking to Alhurra, Sakhr said that Lebanon — historically spanning 10,452 square kilometers — has effectively “shrunk” to just 10,000 square kilometers following the carve-out of the buffer zone.
He warned that the lost territory could eventually be transformed into an “industrial zone,” meaning Lebanon could lose sovereignty over it permanently.
While the United States allocated nearly $230 million in aid to the Lebanese army in October 2025, Sakhr said the funding will have little effect unless state institutions are freed from militia influence and corruption. He said the remedy lies in Chapter VII — an internationally mandated, force-backed intervention to reimpose state authority and reposition Beirut within its Arab sphere under Saudi-American auspices.
Both Ortal and Sakhr agree on a central point: the current Lebanese authority is incapable of resolving the crisis.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
