As regional tensions rise and signs of military escalation grow, Israel and Iran are moving swiftly to redraw the rules of engagement.
While Israel reshapes its defense priorities and accelerates its armament plans in preparation for a potential direct confrontation, Tehran is intensifying military drills and upgrading its missile and drone programs. Together, these moves are shaping a strategic environment open to all scenarios – from limited escalation to full-scale regional conflict.
Israel has approved an urgent plan to enhance its air force capabilities, including the acquisition of two additional KC-46 aerial refueling aircraft. The move, according to an Israeli source who spoke to Alhurra, is aimed at extending the range of its air operations to what is known as the “third circle” – distant regions that include Iran, Yemen, parts of Pakistan, and the Horn of Africa.
The same source said the decision to bolster the air force came after what he described as “lessons learned” from the 12-day confrontation last June – the most serious direct clash between Israel and Iran in years. That round of fighting saw Israeli airstrikes on military and nuclear sites deep inside Iran, met with Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting sites in Israel.
Pakistan condemned the Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran as violations of international law, affirming Iran’s right to self-defense while stressing neutrality, tighter border security, and the need for diplomacy.
Air superiority amid multiple threats
The Israeli source added that the Israeli Defense Ministry has also approved plans to purchase U.S.-made air-to-air missiles – without specifying the models – in a bid to enhance the air force’s capabilities amid rising threats on multiple fronts.
In Iran, the expanding deployment of Russian- and Chinese-made air defense systems poses a growing challenge to any potential aerial penetration operations. In Yemen, the Houthis have acquired advanced missile and attack drone capabilities that threaten strategic maritime routes, including the Red Sea and the port of Eilat – a situation Israel sees as part of an escalating “aerial war of attrition.”
The Israeli official emphasized that expanding these capabilities is “essential to confront a hostile and complex air environment” and to ensure the air force’s freedom of movement in any future conflict. He added that the government has allocated funding for classified programs – without revealing their nature or objectives – describing them as key to maintaining Israel’s “qualitative superiority” amid mounting regional challenges.
Israeli military analyst Eyal Alima told Alhurra that, after two years of fighting in Gaza, the Israeli armed forces must rebuild their capabilities, particularly when it comes to refueling, advanced combat systems, and upgraded equipment.
Upgrading ground forces
The Israeli military plan is not limited to air power or preparations for a confrontation with Iran; it also encompasses a sweeping upgrade of ground force capabilities, driven by ongoing operations in Gaza and the potential for escalation in Lebanon, Syria, or even the West Bank.
According to the Israeli source, the plan includes the annual production of 30 domestically built Merkava 4 tanks, the manufacture of 70 Eitan armored personnel carriers and 60 Namer APCs, the formation of a new tank brigade and a combat engineering battalion, and the delivery of hundreds of light, high-mobility vehicles to transport troops across complex terrain.
These upgrades come amid mounting international pressure on Israel to halt its military operations in Gaza and growing concerns that the war could expand further, undermining diplomatic efforts.
Germany, one of Israel’s key European partners, has announced a freeze on weapons exports to Tel Aviv in protest of its decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Gaza City, warning that such escalation could derail prospects for negotiations.
Israeli military analyst Eyal Alima said that while some pre-signed contracts remain active – obligating Germany and other countries to deliver equipment and weapons already agreed upon – the broader suspension is a serious concern. “The arms sales freeze undoubtedly worries Israel,” Alima said. “It has become increasingly isolated and shunned globally, and this will certainly have repercussions in the military field as well.”
According to German government data, arms export licenses to Israel from Oct. 7, 2023, to May 2025 totaled roughly €485 million.
Analysts note that Israel’s drive to expand domestic production is aimed at bolstering operational independence in case Western military support diminishes — particularly if the United States undergoes an administration change or if domestic criticism of the war continues to grow.
Iran’s preparations
On the other side, multiple reports indicate that Iran has been clearly working to enhance its military posture since the end of the June war, anticipating the possibility of another confrontation with Israel.
Earlier this week, images from Iran showed key systems at the Natanz nuclear facility being dismantled or possibly concealed, in a sign of precautions against renewed strikes.
At the same time, Iran’s armed forces conducted large-scale exercises in southern waters and the Caspian Sea, involving the use of missiles and drones, while officials vowed to deliver a “strong slap” in response to any future attacks.
In early August, Iranian Army Commander Amir Hatami said, “A 1% threat must be treated as if it were a 100% threat,” stressing the readiness of missile and drone forces.
Strategic analyses suggest Iran is adopting a new deterrence approach, with assessments indicating that in the event of renewed hostilities, Tehran is likely to employ immediate, more intense strikes — a shift from gradual responses to rapid, high-impact escalation.
