It has been almost two years since Diaa Breiki and his family were forced to leave the Nur Shams refugee camp during Israel’s military campaign to suppress militant activity in camps across the West Bank.
They were among the estimated 40,000 Palestinian refugees displaced by Israel’s “iron Wall” operation, which especially targeted Jenin, Tulkarm and Nur Shams camps in January and February 2025. Since then, Breiki said, he and many others have become disillusioned by political slogans as they struggle to just get by without camp infrastructure.
Breiki said most camp residents oppose Hamas’s attack on Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, 2023, which triggered Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip. He estimated that in his surroundings, support for Hamas had fallen by more than 70 percent since then. That doesn’t reflect a shift toward any other political force, he said, but rather declining confidence in political factions and organizations across the board.
Residents’ priorities, he said, had become returning to their homes, restoring their livelihoods and resuming normal life.
SImilar disillusionment has taken hold in the Balata refugee camp east of Nablus, established in 1950 and home to more than 33,000 people, according to resident Baha Badrassawi. The war, he said, had brought more unemployment, reduced opportunities for work and education, and curbed access to services.
Camp residents don’t feel adequately supported by political or government authorities, Badrassawi told MBN, adding that political factions had provided no tangible assistance in their daily lives. Independents, he said, could enjoy greater acceptance if elections were held.
In Jabalia, Political Loyalties Have Weakened
The Gaza Strip has eight officially recognized refugee camps, with about 1.56 million registered refugees, or roughly 73 percent of the population, according to UNRWA data from 2024.
Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza is the largest by population, with about 120,000 residents, according to UNRWA, and the war’s impact there has been particularly severe.
Jabalia was once a place where some education and health services were available, resident Ahmed Nassar told MBN. Now it provides only a life of displacement, tents and the daily search for water and food,
The war, he said, had made him less concerned with political alignments and more focused on meeting basic needs. If elections were held, he said, he would vote for any party but Hamas.
Polls Show Hamas Losing Support but No Clear Successor
A poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research from Aug. 5 to 8, 2026, offers a broader indication of the Palestinian political mood. It showed overall support for Hamas falling to 24 percent, from 35 percent 10 months earlier.
Twenty percent said Hamas had emerged victorious from the war, compared with 15 percent who said Israel had won. Sixty percent said neither side had won.
In the West Bank, the share of respondents who viewed Hamas as victorious fell from 48 percent in October 2025 to 21 percent in August. But the decline did not translate into a direct rise in support for the rival Fatah movement, which controls the Palestinian Authority. Forty-four percent said they did not believe either Hamas or Fatah deserved to represent or lead the Palestinians.
Political researcher and analyst Issmat Mansour told MBN that the continuation of the war and the price Palestinians have paid had contributed to a decline in Hamas’s popularity from the greater support it enjoyed in the first weeks after the Oct. 7 attack.
That decline does not translate into a return to rival Fatah, he said, because the crisis of confidence extends more broadly to the Palestinian Authority and other nstitutions and political factions.
Despite its Decline in Popularity, Hamas’s Sway in Lebanese Refugee Camps is undiminished.
About 232,000 Palestinians were residing in Lebanon as of June 2025, roughly 45 percent of them in 12 officially recognized refugee camps, according to an UNRWA survey.
Before Oct. 7, Hamas had a strong and influential presence inside those camps, benefiting from support from Hezbollah, according to Palestinian researcher Hisham Debsi. The war since then has weakened Hamas’s image and popular standing among some Palestinians, he said. A Lebanese security source told MBN that despite that, Hamas’s control inside the camps had not fundamentally changed since Oct. 7.
Hamas and Hezbollah are backed by Iran, and the United States designates both as terrorist organizations.
Lebanese authorities launched a process in August 2025 to collect and restrict Palestinian weapons inside the camps, starting with the handover of weapons belonging to factions affiliated with the Palestine Liberation Organization. That process has not included weapons held by Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad, another group Washington designates as a terrorist organization.
Hamas’ Decline Does Not Mean a New Alternative Is Rising
The available evidence does not point to a single Palestinian political direction after years of war. In the West Bank and Gaza, there are signs of Hamas’s standing declining, but they come amid a broader retreat from political factions generally.
While conditions differ among refugee camps in the West Bank, Gaza and Lebanon, testimonies and public-opinion data suggest that the war has reordered the priorities of significant segments of the Palestinian population. Returning home, finding work and income, security and access to services have become central factors in how they assess political forces.
The shifts since Oct. 7 therefore do not point to a clear move away from Hamas to another faction so much as a broader decline in confidence in political forces. Palestinians are paying more attention to any faction’s ability to respond to residents’ needs and explain their political decisions amid war, displacement and loss.
