At first, the confrontation played out through proxy arenas in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, as Israel and Iran traded blows from behind the scenes. Then, the confrontation escalated.
In April 2024, an international interception network thwarted a large-scale attack launched from Tehran. Israel responded with airstrikes on several sites, most notably near Isfahan, a prelude to what was to come.
In June, the confrontation peaked in a direct 12-day war.
Israel launched deep strikes inside Iran, hitting military and sensitive targets. Tehran responded with heavy barrages of missiles and drones aimed at strategic sites and civilian areas deep inside Israel, inflicting extensive damage on energy facilities and infrastructure.
The United States intervened decisively in the conflict, intercepting Iranian missiles in the air and at sea en route to Israel, and later leading mediation efforts that ended the round of fighting.
On the ground, Israel said it dismantled launch platforms, reducing the intensity of fire over the 12 days, and directly targeted Iranian air defense systems along with nuclear and military infrastructure.
Inside Iran, the impact of the assassinations was palpable. Several senior Revolutionary Guard commanders and nuclear scientists were killed in Israel’s initial strikes. Experts estimated that the Israeli Air Force conducted more than 1,500 sorties, striking hundreds of Iranian targets.
The turning point came with the first publicly acknowledged participation of U.S. B-2 bombers, which used bunker-busting bombs to strike the Fordow and Natanz facilities, a signal that the threshold of deterrence had risen. Yet the confrontation appears far from over, especially after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel knows the locations of Iran’s enriched uranium sites and that coordination with Washington continues.
Caught between a new test of deterrence and a narrowing diplomatic window, the coming round may hinge on a single question: where do the red lines end, and where do they begin?
