Amid conflicting newspaper headlines and a tense public mood, Tehran appears caught between two fraught choices: showing weakness and risking internal unrest, or projecting strength and risking war. Yet signs are mounting that the Islamic Republic is preparing for a second round of conflict with Israel.
In a phone interview with Alhurra, an opposition member inside Iran, who requested anonymity, mocked the contradictory morning headlines, reading them aloud in broken Arabic.
“Kayhan talks about the heavy burden of mismanagement, while Setareh Sobh focuses on the Gulf-European statement,” he said. “Everyone in Iran is attacking everyone, and no one knows who the real enemy is.”
Iranian opposition figures say such contradictions in the media reflect mounting anxiety within official circles about an approaching period of confrontation that could be the most difficult in years.
Facing pressure both at home and abroad, Iran’s leadership is tightening its domestic grip, expanding military capabilities while intensifying its crackdown on political opponents.
Within official ranks, a growing conviction has taken hold that Israel seeks to topple the regime militarily, a claim now voiced openly in public statements and state-aligned media. A day before Hamas and Israel reached an agreement on US President Donald Trump’s Middle East peace plan, an outlet close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council suggested that the US might seek to achieve peace in the Middle East by toppling the Iranian government.
At the same time, reports from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that Iranian officials believe the ceasefire between Israel and Iran “will not hold for long,” and that another round of fighting is “only a matter of time.” That assessment aligns with a series of noteworthy developments inside Iran.
On September 27, Deputy Interior Minister for Security and Law Enforcement Ali Akbar Pourjamshidian announced that the Supreme National Security Council had ordered the appointment of deputies and successors for all military and civilian officials to ensure continuity of governance in case of leadership disruption.
The Interior Ministry adopted the same measure at the provincial level. In the following days, senior military leaders carried out field inspections of air defense and ground units. Brig. Gen. Alireza Sabahifard toured the air defense group in Dezful, while Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi inspected commando and naval aviation units in Hormozgan.
Mousavi said his forces were ready for a “potential future conflict.”
From Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, Amjad Hossein Banahi, a senior official with the Iranian opposition Komala Party, told Alhurra that recent days had seen “unprecedented” movements by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including the transfer of heavily armed forces, missiles, and drones to the border with the region.
Banahi said border cities such as Marivan, Baneh, Sardasht, Piranshahr, Oshnavieh, and Kermanshah had witnessed “intensive military activity and weapons stockpiling.” He added that Tehran views Kurdish opposition parties as a direct threat and Iraqi Kurdistan as a strategic one.
Five other Iranian Kurdish opposition leaders confirmed that the army had moved large quantities of ballistic missiles and deployed mobile launchers in northern and western Iran, in addition to conducting daily military drills there.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said Tehran conducted a missile launch test in mid-September from a platform in Semnan Province, describing it as a continuation of its missile development trajectory following the 12-day war with Israel.
“For more than a decade and a half, the regime has been building what it calls underground missile cities, which are in reality facilities for producing and storing missiles and drones away from U.S. and Israeli surveillance,” Ben Taleblu said.
An Iranian Armed Forces-affiliated newspaper reported on October 1 that the army had replaced and upgraded short-range air defense systems to counter drones, as Tehran seeks to acquire long-range HQ-9 missile batteries from China.
In what appears to be a rapid arms buildup, Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at FDD, confirmed that Iran obtained Russian-made Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets earlier this week, aircraft capable of performing both offensive and defensive missions. He warned that “Russia is reverting to its old habits of assisting Iran’s nuclear program.”
He added that China “may also have sent chemical materials used as rocket fuel for ballistic missiles and could be helping to rebuild Iran’s missile capabilities,” while Tehran is also seeking advanced Chinese radar and air defense systems.
Satellite imagery shows that underground, Iran continues to construct a deep military complex beneath “Mount Pickaxe,” south of the Natanz nuclear facility, which was struck by Israeli and U.S. forces last June.
Ben Taleblu said work has been going on since 2020 at the site, where tunnels are being excavated deep into the Zagros Mountains about a mile from the Natanz complex. He noted that the new tunnels are “much deeper than the Fordow facility,” raising concerns that nuclear material might be moved there amid declining International Atomic Energy Agency oversight.
On the Israeli side, a security official declined to comment on the possibly growing likelihood of confrontation.
The official told Alhurra’s correspondent in Tel Aviv, Yahya Qassem, that the opening strike in last June’s war “was executed in just four minutes,” causing a “temporary paralysis” in Iran’s command, which refrained from responding for 24 hours, while Israel “established complete intelligence and air superiority over Iranian airspace.”
He added that “the Israeli army is preparing for all scenarios and taking every possibility seriously.”
Observers, however, note that Israel “will not wait for danger but will preempt it,” a sign that the next confrontation with Iran may be closer than expected, and perhaps more dangerous than the last.
Alhurra correspondents Yahya Qassem in Tel Aviv and Dilshad Hussein in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region contributed to this report.
Randa Jebai
Randa Jebai is an award-winning journalist with more than 20 years of experience. She joined Alhurra TV’s investigative team in 2020, earning honors from the AIBs, New York Festivals, and the Telly Awards. She previously worked with major Lebanese outlets and holds master’s degrees in law and journalism.
