As the bombing subsides in Gaza, anxiety is rising in Lebanon, along with questions about how the new peace agreement will affect it.
Nearly two years ago, Hezbollah opened what it called the “front to support Gaza,” launching rocket and drone attacks on Israel under “rules of engagement” that held briefly before spiraling out of control. Israel responded with ground operations in the south and airstrikes across much of Lebanon.
That escalation underscored that the link between Gaza and Lebanon is not new, and that the current peace plan for Gaza will have major repercussions on Lebanon’s stability.
Many Lebanese agree that the Gaza agreement “will shift attention toward their country and intensify political pressure to disarm Hezbollah. What they fear, however, is that Israel could again launch large-scale ground and air operations if Beirut fails to deliver on its commitments.
Israel’s Calculations Shift North
Lebanese military analysts say Israel appears increasingly focused on the northern front, having achieved many of its objectives in Gaza through the peace agreement. Lebanon, by contrast, remains different, where Hezbollah still poses a threat despite the heavy losses it has suffered.
Security sources in Beirut told Alhurra that a “state of mutual mobilization” now prevails along the border, with intensified Israeli aerial and reconnaissance activity deep inside Lebanon, met by Hezbollah’s reinforced defensive positions and talk of rebuilding its strength.
These sources warn that any miscalculation in the field could quickly trigger wider escalation, especially if Israel sees renewed clashes as an opportunity to redraw the rules of engagement under the new Gaza framework.
Retired Brig. Gen. Khaled Hamadeh agreed, saying developments in Gaza are shaping a shift in Israel’s approach to Lebanon.
“Israel believes that concluding the Gaza battle gives it greater freedom to maneuver in the north. With Hamas gone from the battlefield there, Tel Aviv will seek to contain what it views as the remaining threat from southern Lebanon,” Hamadeh told Alhurra.
The Gaza plan’s fallout on Lebanon, he added, cannot be separated from the broader regional landscape or from the political and military calculations of Israel and Hezbollah.
Political analyst Ali al-Amin said it is “difficult to imagine Hezbollah maintaining its current military posture at a time when the region is moving toward gradual settlements that include Syria and Gaza, and possibly other issues later.”
He told Alhurra that “the decision on Hezbollah’s weapons is no longer entirely Lebanese. It has become part of broader regional understanding between Tehran and Washington. What remains of Hezbollah’s arsenal is organically tied to the Iranian case, and Israel knows that well and acts accordingly.”
Hezbollah’s Predicament
Inside Lebanon, one key question looms: What will Hezbollah’s role be after the Gaza agreement?
Al-Amin believes the group faces a dual predicament. “On one hand, Hezbollah does not want an all-out confrontation with Israel, having realized the potential scale of losses. On the other, it seeks to preserve the legitimacy of its weapons through its resistance rhetoric, even without actual combat,” he said.
Domestically, Hezbollah faces mounting pressure to disarm as some of its allies distance themselves and publicly call for all weapons to be under state control, eroding the political cover the group once relied on.
That internal debate cannot be separated from Iran’s position, recently articulated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s adviser Ali Akbar Velayati, who said “disarming Hezbollah is a dream that will never come true.”
Peace or Escalation?
Western diplomats told Alhurra that regional dynamics are placing growing pressure on Lebanon to engage in a peace process, or at least direct negotiations to demarcate borders and resolve outstanding issues. They view this as part of rebuilding “comprehensive regional stability,” particularly as international attention has shifted away from Lebanon toward other priorities.
Hezbollah, however, remains firmly opposed to any such discussions, seeing them as a direct challenge to its role and domestic standing. Yet some analysts suggest that continued political and economic paralysis, coupled with the absence of external support, could expose Lebanon to indirect pressure to negotiate — especially if tied to implementing U.N. Resolution 1701 or settling the land border dispute.
Until that is resolved, Hamadeh said, Israel, which continues to push for full implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, the 2006 measure that ended the last Israel–Hezbollah war, may seek to contain what it perceives as the remaining threat from southern Lebanon.
“That approach doesn’t necessarily mean a full-scale war,” he added. “But it could lead to more frequent, deeper targeted strikes aimed at draining Hezbollah’s resources and redefining the de facto borders between the two sides” — a reminder that even as the guns fall silent in Gaza, Lebanon’s own day after remains uncertain.
Josephine Deeb
Journalist and political host
