Ezzedine Fishere is an Egyptian novelist and journalist and a Senior Lecturer at Dartmouth College.
The Israeli-Egyptian peace is often taken for granted. It shouldn’t be. What began in the mid-1970s as a set of modest disengagement agreements has, over half a century, grown into one of the most durable security relationships in the Middle East. It has survived wars, uprisings, insurgencies, and political upheavals. Now, amid the mayhem in Gaza and rising tensions between Cairo and Jerusalem, that relationship is at risk. Destabilizing this relationship is reckless – for both countries, the region, and outside powers.
The Egyptian-Israeli security relationship goes back to the Sinai Agreement of September 1975, which included a commitment not to use force, the establishment of a US-manned early-warning station, and an Israeli withdrawal from Sinai’s strategic straits. Negotiated by Henry Kissinger, it was the first time Egypt and Israel agreed on a security architecture, and paved the way for the 1978 Camp David Accords and the 1979 Peace Treaty.
For fifty years, both sides kept their word, even in the darkest moments of their relationship. Egypt’s frustration with Menachem Begin’s abandonment of the Palestinian self-rule talks, his invasion of Lebanon, Yitzhak Shamir’s obstinate opposition to negotiations, Benjamin Netanyahu’s renunciation of the Oslo process, and Ariel Sharon’s violent repression of the Second Intifada – none of these events broke that security relationship. Neither did Yasser Arafat’s attempts to drag Egypt into violence during the Second Intifada. Hamas’s rise, its takeover of Gaza, its repeated clashes with Israel, and its border infiltrations could have easily derailed the relationship. They did not. Nor did the 2012 Muslim Brotherhood electoral victory in Egypt, or the ISIS-affiliated insurgency in Sinai after their ousting in 2013.
Paradoxically, these crises pushed Egypt and Israel into closer, if discreet, cooperation. Today, even amid devastation in Gaza and Israel’s redeployment along the border, coordination has continued. The fact that it has held through such storms testifies to its importance for both countries.
For this relationship is a cornerstone of their national security. For Egypt, peace allowed it to set aside its main external threat, modernize its army, and focus on its internal challenges. It also made a peaceful settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict the core element of its foreign policy. For Israel, peace with Egypt was the foremost achievement of its effort to co-exist peacefully with its neighbors, and a harbinger of further agreements and understandings. It secured its southern flank, enabling it to reduce the level of its force mobilization and deployment, and to concentrate on other borders. And for the United States, it has been a rare case of success in its Middle East diplomacy – proof that adversaries can, with the right mix of pressure, incentive, and solid security arrangements, coexist peacefully, even if not warmly.
Now, however, troubling signals are emerging. Israeli leaders mutter about Egypt’s supposed responsibility for Hamas’s military buildup, feeding a narrative that Cairo cannot be trusted, while Israeli media bristle with reports of an Egyptian military buildup in Sinai. Egyptian leaders, prompted by a furious public over the destruction of Gaza and its population, have also toughened their rhetoric. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has warned that Israeli actions are undermining “existing peace treaties” and Cairo announced a downgrading of its security cooperation with Israel. Some of this may be political theater – Sisi posturing for his public, Netanyahu soothing his right wing. But there are hints of darker impulses at work.
Some in Israel advocate solving the “Gaza problem” through mass displacement of Palestinians into Sinai. These calls have provoked furious Egyptian responses and deepened Cairo’s mistrust of the current Israeli government’s intentions. The fear is that extremist leaders in Israel might pursue such a plan by force to drive Egypt to take security measures in Sinai, which would in turn exacerbate Israeli hostility. That, in turn, feeds Egyptian mistrust and push them to take further precautions – a self-reinforcing spiral of hostility.
Such a scenario could easily slip out of control, especially in the context of the Gaza War. The result would not be an ordinary crisis that could be patched up without lasting impact. An Egyptian-Israeli confrontation or a forced displacement of Gazans into Sinai could transform the region’s security landscape in ways neither side could control. Egypt, for all its current irrelevance, should not be taken for granted. A collapse of its peace with Israel could radically transform its politics and regional posture, especially if coupled with displacement of Gazans into Sinai. In a region short on stability, the Egyptian-Israeli peace is a rare pillar that has stood firm for half a century. To chip away at it now, in pursuit of illusory “solutions,” would be to invite a darker, more violent Middle East. That is a price neither Egyptians, nor Israelis, nor Americans should be willing to pay.
The Gaza peace plan announced this week could be a positive step – provided, among other things, that it actually makes good on its promise to prevent forced displacement from Gaza. Washington can, and should, accompany the plan with an Egyptian-Israeli bilateral component that walks the two sides back to concrete cooperation. Quiet, steady U.S. diplomacy has preserved this peace before. It can do so again.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Middle East Broadcasting Networks.
Ezzedine Fishere
Ezzedine Fishere is an Egyptian novelist and journalist and a Senior Lecturer at Dartmouth College.
