The easiest stage has ended, and the hardest has begun in Iraq’s electoral process, which took place on Tuesday, as voters cast their ballots to elect a new 329-member parliament representing the country’s 46 million citizens.
According to the Election Commission, the turnout was about 55 percent – roughly 12 million out of 21 million eligible voters — compared with 41 percent in the 2021 election.
The Commission is expected to announce the preliminary results within 24 hours of polls closing, kick-starting the marathon of forming a government – a process that usually takes months and requires agreements among Iraq’s main components (Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds) to share executive positions and choose a prime minister.
The election is expected to reshape Iraq’s political landscape. It will determine the composition of the new parliament, and the domestic and foreign policies of the next government.
Domestic and Regional Context
Domestically, the vote comes amid persistent political, security, and economic challenges; the conspicuous absence of one of Iraq’s most influential forces (the Sadrist Movement); major changes to the electoral law; and continuing controversy over the U.S. military presence. Baghdad is trying to maintain a delicate balance in its relations with Tehran and Washington.
Regionally, the vote comes in the wake of sweeping changes that were triggered by the Gaza war. Iran’s regional influence has notably ebbed following June’s 12-day confrontation with Israel and the United States. And as Washington heaps more pressure on Baghdad to rein in Iran-linked militias, fears of renewed escalation persist.
This is Iraq’s sixth parliamentary election since 2003. And just as in previous rounds, the competition is fierce both at the national level and within the three main blocs: the Shiite, the Sunni, and the Kurds.
In the Shiite house, there is an open clash for leadership between those that push for regional allegiance and those that foster national independence. The Sunni factions lack a unifying figurehead, and, therefore, their representation is fragmented. And the Kurds are facing divisions within their ranks that chips away from their bargaining power with Baghdad.
Voter participation is expected to decline, especially among younger Iraqis who are angry with the ruling elite and disgruntled by rampant corruption and high unemployment.
How the Process Works
The first phase began Sunday with special voting for security forces and military personnel (about 1.3 million voters) and internally displaced persons (roughly 26,500 voters).
Around 7,700 candidates are competing for 329 seats for a four-year term. Most candidates belong to major, well-established political parties. Only 75 of them are independent.
That imbalance stems largely from the current electoral law, the Amended Sainte-Laguë System, which favors large lists at the expense of independents and small parties – a reversal of 2021’s rules.
Iraq’s constitution requires that women hold at least 25 percent of parliamentary seats (that’s about 83 out of 329) and allocates nine seats to minorities – five for Christians and one each for the Sabeans, Yazidis, Fayli Kurds, and Shabaks.
The “Blocking Third”
Casting ballots may prove the easiest part of this complex process. This year, the Election Commission said preliminary results would be released within 24 hours. However, the final results could take weeks before they are certified.
Once final results are ratified, the incumbent president must convene the new parliament within 15 days. At that point, a contentious chapter begins to identify the largest bloc which has the right to nominate the prime minister.
The parliament must first elect a speaker and two deputies by absolute majority. Then, within 30 days of its first session, the parliament elects a new president by a two-thirds vote. Under Iraq’s informal post-2003 power-sharing system, the president is a Kurd, the speaker is a Sunni, and the prime minister is a Shiite.
The president then designates the nominee of the largest bloc to form a government within 30 days to present a cabinet lineup.
Importantly, the “largest bloc” does not necessarily mean the one that single handedly won the biggest number of seats; it could be a coalition of any number of post-election blocs.
Customarily, the three top posts are negotiated and agreed upon in a single package deal: the president gets elected by a two-thirds majority, while the prime minister and speaker are approved by a simple majority (half plus one).
But a new complication arose in the last election; the so-called “blocking third”.
Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court ruled then that a presidential-election session requires a quorum of at least two-thirds of parliament members. This means that any bloc or coalition that commands a third of seats can prevent the session from taking place.
This rule obstructed the election of a new president for months after 2021 election. Eventually, Muqtada al-Sadr– whose movement had ranked first with 70 seats, withdrew from politics in protest and ordered his MPs to resign.
The Shiite Coordination Framework, Sadr’s main rival, used the ruling to form the largest bloc and, through a deal with the Sunnis and Kurds, nominated Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as prime minister, Abdul Latif Rashid as president, and Mohammed al-Halbousi as speaker.
Shiite Rivalries
Within the ranks of the Coordination Framework – a coalition of Shiite parties some of which are aligned with Iran, there are rivalries that may, again, prolong the government-formation saga, especially if the competitors’ election scores are close to each other.
Prime Minister al-Sudani is seeking a second term under banner of the Reconstruction and Development Alliance. He’s being challenged by former premier Nouri al-Maliki and his State of Law Coalition. Meanwhile, the Sadrist Movement continues to be absent from the political arena.
In 2021, the Sadrists’ victory triggered an eleven-month crisis that culminated in armed clashes. That experience pushed pro-Iran groups to unite under the Coordination Framework, which later produced Sudani’s government. Now, that same framework is fractured by leadership rivalries and haggling over state institutions.
Iraqi research centers estimate Shiite factions will grab 180 to 190 parliamentary seats. Many expect Sudani’s slate to come on top, but Maliki and others within the Coordination Framework are working hard to prevent him from winning a second term.
Except for Maliki (2006–2014), all Iraqi premiers did not win a reelection; a pattern that might very well continue with Sudani given Iraq’s post-election coalition politics.
Powerful Iran-linked militias are also participating through political arms. Kataib Hezbollah is represented by the Rights Movement and Qais al-Khazali’s Asaib Ahl al-Haq is fronted by the Sadiqun Bloc.
Some reformist groups, that sprang from the 2019 mass protests, are also running but are plagued by divisions and funding shortage.
Among Sunnis, there are several coalitions that vie for leadership. Prominently among them: Progress (led by former speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi), Sovereignty (led by Khamis al-Khanjar), Azm (Muthanna al-Samarrai), and the new Hasm Alliance led by Defense Minister Thabet al-Issawi.
Sunnis are expected to bag 65 to 75 seats – enough to wield influence in coalition-building, though internal divisions could limit their leverage.
In the Kurdistan Region, the fissure is deeper than ever. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) under Masoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), under Bafel Talabani, have locked horns in a bitter competition over representation in Baghdad. They failed to form a unified front as they did in 2014 with the then called Kurdish Alliance.
The PUK has been torn by inner fighting since Jalal Talabani’s death in 2017. Armed clashes, the arrest of Lahur Sheikh Jangi, and the jailing of New Generation Movement leader Shaswar Abdul Wahid have all fueled fears of “political purges” and entrenched patronage.
Kurdish lists are competing for 46 seats across the region’s three governorates, with total representation potentially reaching about 70 seats including disputed areas (Nineveh, Kirkuk, Diyala, and Salah al-Din).
The Bottom Line
Even if certain lists win a relative majority, forming a new government will almost certainly require broad negotiations and power-sharing among Shiite, Kurdish, and Sunni forces.
The amended electoral law gives the advantage to traditional parties, a situation that immensely reduces the prospects for major change through parliament.
With the absence of the Sadrists, everything will ultimately depend on voter turnout and the endorsement of the election results by Iraqis and the international community.
The previous election recorded the lowest turnout in Iraq’s history – just 41 percent – a figure that will serve as a key benchmark for the current vote.
Ghassan Taqi
صحفي متخصص في الشؤون العراقية، يعمل في مؤسسة الشرق الأوسط للإرسال MBN منذ عام 2015. عمل سنوات مع إذاعة "أوروبا الحرة" ومؤسسات إعلامية عراقية وعربية.
