All Roads Lead to Tehran

Welcome back to the MBN Iran Briefing.

The domestic, the regional, and the global are ever intertwined, and the big Iran news doesn’t always come out of Iran. It might come when the crown prince of Iran’s major regional rival visits Washington, DC. Or when millions of voters cast their ballots in neighboring Iraq. Or from a lab on the outskirts of St. Petersburg, Russia.

This week we’ll look at developments in all those places, and more, and why they concern Iran and the rest of the world. And we’ll see what’s coming out of Tehran’s taps, find out what Iran is up to in Africa, hear where a young Iranian boy’s curiosity about gravity led him, and take a peek at what’s hot on the ‘Gram and #AutumnPose.

Note: As next Thursday is Thanksgiving, expect my MBN Iran Briefing in your inbox on Wednesday, November 26th.

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 Quote of the week:

“We will do our best to help reach a deal between America and Iran.”

– Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud

TO TEHRAN VIA DC, RIYADH …

This week one of our major Iran stories comes from Washington, DC, where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud met with President Donald Trump.

Of course the headline items of the Trump-MBS talks were defense deals, including proposed sales of F-35 and F-15 jet fighters and Patriot missile batteries, alongside oil pricing, technology investments, and regional security coordination. (Check out the new MBN Agenda newsletter and our flagship Alhurra platform for full coverage.)  

But Iran was a big topic for the two leaders as well. President Trump framed June’s U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites as proof of American resolve and insisted that Iran, faced with real consequences, is now inching toward the negotiating table. The White House sees Tehran testing creative ways to re-engage, and the U.S. president hinted to MBS that a diplomatic breakthrough might be in reach.

On Tuesday, the Saudi crown prince said that “I will be working closely together on the (Iran) issue, and we will do our best to help reach a deal between America and Iran,” adding, “We believe it’s good for Iran’s future to have a good deal that would satisfy the region and the world. So we will do our best to see that they happen.” Shia Iran’s long-standing Sunni rival may play a key role in helping broker a scaling-down of tensions between Iran and the United States.

Moreover, on Monday the Saudi press agency SPA reported that the crown prince had received a letter from the Iranian president. Contents as yet undisclosed, but the missive did arrive just before the MBS went to Washington. Coincidence? Not likely.

What do I notice about what just happened?

• Strategic messaging: Both Washington and Riyadh are using public statements to send layered messages. Trump’s references to airstrikes and negotiation aren’t meant just to be heard in Tehran, but also by allies and adversaries watching for U.S. resolve in the region after the fall of Kabul. The president’s remarks didn’t leave much to the imagination: “I think we’ve done a great job in wiping out the nuclear capacity of Iran… No other president would have done it. We had the pilots in the Oval Office right here. We were celebrating a very successful attack.”
• Iran’s timed outreach: Pezeshkian’s letter might suggest that Tehran is hedging. Since Riyadh and Tehran restored ties in 2023 (under Chinese sponsorship) after a seven-year hiatus and MBS has signaled an interest in mediating U.S.–Iran nuclear talks, Tehran may now calculate that Saudi advocacy in Washington could either soften sanctions timing or help frame a more acceptable deal.
• Saudi leverage and balancing: Out of this, MBS emerges as a pivotal interlocutor, strong enough to mediate, but not invested in any single outcome. This positions Saudi Arabia as both broker and gatekeeper to regional détente, potentially shifting the locus of diplomacy away from bilateral hostility to managed multilateral bargaining. This isn’t entirely new: after the Trump administration quit the nuclear deal in 2018, Saudi Arabia quietly supported efforts to reopen dialogue, partly because the kingdom needed stability for investment and its Vision 2030 reforms. 
• What’s missing: The notable absences: Israeli, European, Gulf, and even Chinese input. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. are on the stage, but most of the regional security architecture is silent. Is this genuine movement, or are we watching the opening gambits before other players step in?

Watch this space.

… AND BAGHDAD

On Monday, Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission released the final results of last week’s parliamentary elections. The 329 seats have been allocated, though the results still need to be ratified by the supreme court.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani, a Shia politician backed by the Iran‑aligned “Shia Coordination Framework” alliance, is trying to pull Sunni and Kurdish parties into a new governing coalition. At the same time, his own Shia backers are still arguing over whether to keep him as prime minister in the next government. 

The coalition arithmetic is messy in Iraq’s fragmented parliament, especially because the movement of populist Shia cleric Muqtada al‑Sadr is currently out of parliament but remains popular in the street, and could re‑enter politics or mobilize protests that blow up any fragile deal.

Sadr’s bloc is sidelined because his MPs resigned from parliament after the last crisis, which let their rivals in the Coordination Framework take those seats. But Sadr still has a large, loyal base, and if he calls them back into elections or onto the streets, they can obstruct or topple a government they see as too close to Iran or too corrupt.

Tehran is walking a tightrope. On the one hand, the strong showing by Shia blocs offers relief and a win for its “axis of resistance.” On the other, the Framework’s failure to secure an outright majority heightens Tehran’s worries about losing influence. Iranian officials were quick to congratulate Baghdad, portraying the election as a regional victory, but undoubtedly behind closed doors there are deep concerns.

Coordination Framework parties, many with deep Iranian ties, topped the seat count, but they now need Sunni and Kurdish support for a working majority. That will mean hard bargaining, as the Sunni and Kurdish factions know their leverage and can be expected to demand ministries, budget deals, and perhaps even autonomy guarantees in exchange for coalition discipline. Iran may need to offer economic incentives or political patronage to keep its allies in line.

Iran’s investments in Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and security sector mean that any dilution of Shia control is a big risk to Tehran.

The result is fresh and just the opening move. With Sadr out, any coalition could be fragile and liable to unravel if he launches protests or other maneuvers.

And of course there’s a U.S.-Iran angle to all this as well. The underlying tension in Baghdad’s coalition talks is shaped by the ongoing rivalry between the United States and Iran. As Alex Vatanka at the Middle East Institute put it on Tuesday, “the Iraqi election will not crown a winner in the U.S.-Iranian rivalry over Iraq so much as set the rules for the next season of competition. If this electoral outcome ultimately produces a familiar governing coalition, expect a subtler version of the status quo … no fundamental shift in Iraq’s strategic alignment.”

Bottom line: Iran’s networks and proxies remain a force, but with Sadrists in the wings and Kurds/Sunnis driving hard bargains, the new parliament will put Tehran’s influence to the test.

RIP NPT?

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday told the Associated Press in Tehran that “there is no enrichment right now because our facilities – our enrichment facilities – have been attacked. There is no undeclared nuclear enrichment in Iran. All of our facilities are under the safeguards and monitoring of the International Atomic Energy Agency.” Araghchi also said that “Iran’s right for enrichment, for peaceful use of nuclear technology, including enrichment, is undeniable. We have this right, and we continue to exercise that, and we hope that the international community, including the United States, recognize our rights and understand that this is an inalienable right of Iran. And we would never give up our rights.”

Translation? I turned to Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, for help. 

“Iran’s insistence that it has a right to make nuclear fuel puts it squarely in the ranks of South Korea, Japan, and Europe. The next question is: will Saudi Arabia join this club? If it does, we’re in trouble,” he said, adding “RIP, NPT” – underscoring the risk that Iran’s stance could unravel the last constraints of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the main global agreement to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote disarmament. 

Meanwhile, turns out Tehran and Moscow have been even cozier than we thought. I reported last week that Iran and Russia agreed to set up their first joint maritime consortium. The Financial Times yesterday added to evidence that Tehran’s nuclear intentions aren’t necessarily peaceful: Iranian nuclear scientists didn’t go to Russia just once, but twice, using diplomatic passports and sanctioned front companies, the paper reported. The second trip, last November, put them inside a Russian military laser lab near St. Petersburg with access to technology that can help simulate a nuclear weapon design without ever setting off an actual bomb. U.S. officials say these meetings weren’t casual but were about getting “dual-use” tools and know-how with official blessing from both governments. The takeaway: Iran’s technical cooperation with Russia isn’t a rumor; it’s documented. And the thin line between peaceful science and weapons development just keeps getting blurrier. RIP NPT indeed.

Photo credit: Reuters

DRIP DRIP

What I’ve been reporting here for a couple of weeks is now global news: the Iranian capital faces a water crisis of monumental proportions.

These headlines from one Iranian news source alone give you a sense of the topic du jour in Iran:

• What will Tehran do without rain?
• Bottled water cannot compensate for the daily consumption of three billion liters in Tehran.
• Iranian people won’t believe the water crisis until they see it with their own eyes.

Overall, the narrative is shifting from prevention to survival, from warning and abstract risk management to urgent and concrete adaptation and contingency planning.  

But the key development this week is that water isn’t the only commodity that has been reduced to a trickle. So has the flow of information.

As major dams reach their lowest level in half a century, nightly pressure drops or effective shut-offs are now routine in most districts of Tehran. They are being managed quietly, but without formal data or direct comment from top officials. The Ministry of Energy and Tehran Water Company have all but ceased issuing detailed updates, offering residents only a blanket recommendation to install home storage tanks and minimize consumption.

Cloud seeding, rolled out as a much-hyped solution, produced more headlines than actual rain, intensifying skepticism about government competence and transparency. Meanwhile, social media, Telegram groups, and independent outlets are highlighting the quietly spreading disruption. Schools are closing early, bakeries are shutting for lack of sanitation, bottled water prices are surging, and critics are blasting the official silence. Calls to halt new construction and limit water permits have surfaced in municipal debates, but energetic ministerial leadership is nowhere to be found.

Bottom line: If the last week has shown anything, it’s that Tehran’s water crisis has entered a phase where transparency is as scarce as rainfall. The city now runs on rumors, adaptation, and hope for solutions that have yet to be announced or conceived.

IRAN ABROAD

IRAN-AFRICA

A few weeks ago I talked about Iran’s efforts in Latin America. Now the American Foreign Policy Council has issued a fascinating study of Iran’s strategy in Africa. As the report puts it: “Africa is significant for Iran, providing it with a testing ground for its influence operations, a pathway for sanctions evasion, and strategic depth for its foreign policy initiatives.”

Key takeaways:

• Iran’s activities in Africa form a critical pillar of its global strategy, leveraging diplomacy, covert trade, and ideological outreach to build new alliances beyond its immediate region.
• The Islamic Republic uses Africa’s fragile political environments and anti-Western sentiment to foster new alliances, advance the spread of Shia Islam, and ramp up clandestine trade, including with military juntas and black-market networks.
• Iran’s involvement goes far beyond diplomacy. It’s exporting drones and weapons, forging partnerships with proxies like Hezbollah, and leveraging humanitarian organizations to build long-term ideological and strategic beachheads across the continent.

SCIENCE AND CULTURE: “Why Doesn’t the Moon Fall?”

In an article entitled “Why doesn’t the moon fall?” reformist daily Shargh profiles Iranian-American Harvard professor Cumrun Vafa (کامران وفا), who was born in Iran, emigrated to the US, and became one of the world’s leading theoretical physicists. He’s renowned for his groundbreaking work on string theory. The Shargh piece pinpoints the origin of his interest in physics: “I saw that there was a very beautiful object called the moon in the sky that people enjoyed seeing; but unlike an apple, this object does not fall to the ground.” Now, decades later, Vafa is celebrated as a pioneer on unity in physics and the “theory of everything.”

Photo credit: instagram.com/farnaz.ghasemmi/

TRENDING

BLOWING IN THE WIND: #AUTUMNPOSE SWEEPS IRANIAN SOCIAL MEDIA

Who needs water when you can show off your autumn fashion? This week, Iranian Instagram is on fire with the hashtag #AutumnPose (ژست_پاییزی#). Go into your Iranian social media feed and you can’t escape the shots of celebrities, teahouse regulars and city students. Loads of moody park benches, retro scarves, and sepia-toned cappuccinos with the occasional leaves.

Tuesday saw Farzaneh Ghasemzadeh, an Iranian actress and influencer known for sharing fashion and lifestyle content on social media, jump into the mix, with a website breathlessly noting that the actress “showed off a chic, fall-inspired casual style in her latest photos. She is wearing a short white trench coat and wide-leg jeans, which shows that she is following streetwear trends.”