U.S. envoy Tom Barrack told Iraq’s leadership that Israel plans to continue operations “until Hezbollah is disarmed” and that if Iran-aligned groups like Kataeb Hezbollah join the fight, Israel will strike them without U.S. interference, according to a European diplomat in Washington.
Barrack “told Baghdad to control the factions and cut off any support that could help Hezbollah in Lebanon,” the diplomat said. “Neutrality isn’t a request. It’s the condition.”
Barrack delivered a firm message to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Sudani during a November 30 meeting in Baghdad, according to the diplomat who met with Iraqi officials in Washington. “We fear that an Israeli operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon is coming, and Iraq will face consequences if its militias intervene.”
Reuters has cited statements from Kataeb Hezbollah and other Iraqi militias threatening to strike U.S. military bases and assets across Iraq and the broader region if the United States directly supports Israel in any escalation with Hezbollah or Iran. “Barrack is trying to avoid a three-front problem: Lebanon, Gaza, and Iraq,” the source said.
Barrack’s visit prioritized deterrence over traditional diplomacy. “This wasn’t a negotiation. It was a warning,” the diplomat said. The message included a sharp edge: If Iraqi militias intervene, Iraq itself could become a battlefield. “Israel is openly signaling that Iraqi territory could be hit.”
Chatham House reported that Iraq’s fragile stability is threatened by a shifting Middle Eastern order, and the Sudani government faces competing pressures: its coalition includes Iran-aligned groups that coordinate with Hezbollah, while it maintains a strategic partnership with Washington that includes 2,500 U.S. military personnel.
The message from Barrack is forcing Baghdad to choose which relationship it values more when a crisis hits. So far, Iraq has offered no public response, a sign, analysts say, that the government is still calculating how to manage factions it cannot fully control.
What’s emerging is a map of escalation where a Lebanon war doesn’t stay in Lebanon. If Iraqi militias open a second front, Israel retaliates. If Israel retaliates, militias strike U.S. bases. If militias strike U.S. bases, Washington responds. And each step increases the probability of a regional conflict that neither side claims to want.
Joe Kawly
Joe Kawly is a veteran global affairs journalist with over two decades of frontline reporting across Washington, D.C. and the Middle East. A CNN Journalism Fellow and Georgetown University graduate, his work focuses on U.S. foreign policy, Arab world politics, and diplomacy. With deep regional insight and narrative clarity, Joe focuses on making complex global dynamics clear, human, and relevant.
