Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Welcome back to MBN Agenda, from the premier Arabic-first, American-funded news and commentary platform.
Today, the scholar of Islam and MBN Columnist Mustafa Akyol tells a very Christmasy story about what the holiday and the birth of Jesus have meant and should mean for Muslims.
Even at this time of year, there’s still lots of news to digest — most pressing is the three holiday deadlines that loom over the future of Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Also, guess what’s the Gulf’s secret sauce for AI?
We’ll be off next week, and back in your inbox January 6. If you prefer to read in Arabic, click here. Share your thoughts anytime at mbnagenda@mbn-news.com. And if this was forwarded to you, subscribe here.
– Cheyn, Ezat, Joe and Aya
Yuletide Special
🎄🕌 Jesus, the Quran and Christmas
There will be Christmas in the Middle East. Of course there are tensions within Islam over this Christian holiday. Some fatwas prohibit Muslims from celebrating it. But it is a national holiday in Syria, Sudan, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon. If you look, you can find Muslim Christmas songs. Surprised? Remember that Jesus is the only prophet whose birth is described in the Quran. And that makes this Thursday more special across the Arab world than people realize.
Read MBN Columnist Mustafa Akyol’s fascinating story of Islam and Christmas.
Quote of the Week
“If someone can do something, by all means go for it. I can’t do anything — don’t curse me.”
– Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking at the Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences in Tehran, December 6
Signals
3 Deadlines to Determine the Levant’s Fate
By the end of the year. Nothing like a deadline to concentrate minds — and ruin thoughts of rest and relaxation over the holidays. This year in the Middle East, the “by- year-end-or-else” comes in triplicate.
Gaza
The efforts to agree on the second phase of the “Gaza peace plan” will play out in Miami, where President Donald Trump is expected to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Dec. 29, according to Netanyahu’s office.
That follows a meeting in Miami on December 19 between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and officials from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey to discuss implementation of the first phase and preparations to begin the second.
Trump has promised the second phase will start soon, but Israel has set conditions, including approval of the composition of an international force and making the phase contingent on the “disarmament of Hamas.” U.S. officials originally said Trump would unveil Phase II before Christmas; now the Times of Israel is reporting that the deal won’t be finalized until early 2026.
Hani Marzouk, a spokesman for the Israeli prime minister’s office, told MBN that Israel will not allow Hamas to have any governing role or armed presence under any circumstances.
Hamas, for its part, rejects disarmament and demands that Israel halt its military operations in the Gaza Strip.
As a result, American negotiators will have to reconcile starkly opposing positions in Miami for the peace plan to proceed.
Lebanon
As with Gaza, time is tight for Lebanon. If Hezbollah is not disarmed by the end of the year, Israel threatens to intervene militarily. The U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, according to Reuters, presented Lebanon with a proposal in August to disarm Hezbollah by the end of the year. Hezbollah continues to reject calls by the Lebanese government to disarm, while internal Lebanese divisions and political disputes over the issue persist.
Lebanese Army Commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal last Thursday met in Paris with French, American and Saudi officials. The aim was to support the Lebanese army and push for tangible progress on the disarmament of Hezbollah.
Fadi Makki, Lebanon’s minister of state for administrative development, told MBN that “the current proposal does not involve disarming Hezbollah across the country by the New Year, but is limited to completing the phase south of the Litani River by the end of the year, which the Lebanese army will carry out.” He said further disarmament would be completed later.
As Israeli media speculate about the possibility of renewed war in Lebanon, Makki said “the indicators suggest things are heading toward de-escalation.”
The longer solutions and settlements are delayed in Lebanon, the greater the risk of Israeli military escalation.
Syria
The third deadline, also for year’s end, is to integrate the U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, into the Syrian army. The deadline was set by the so-called March agreement, signed between President Ahmed al-Sharaa and the SDF, which mandated progress in unifying their forces by the end of 2025.
Media reports say the Syrian government recently sent a proposal to Kurdish leaders expressing openness to integrating about 50,000 fighters into three main divisions and smaller brigades under the Syrian Defense Ministry. In return, Damascus demanded that its forces enter areas currently controlled by the SDF.
The United States, through presidential envoy Tom Barrack, has been heavily involved in the talks after previously mediating the March agreement.
But the situation on the ground has deteriorated. Clashes erupted between the Syrian army and the SDF in Aleppo province on Dec. 22, resulting in injuries on both sides, according to Syrian media reports.
Here, too, time appears to be a critical factor — in Syria, as in Lebanon and Gaza. Whether the situation in the Levant escalates or stabilizes in 2026 depends on three deadlines, all expiring in mere days.
In Brief
Gulf’s New Old Black Gold
The Gulf is moving “from crude to compute,” and while the region’s AI ambitions are not new, a fresh report released this week by the Middle East Institute in Washington shows that its secret weapon is energy.
In the report, author and MEI senior fellow Mohammed Soliman argues the battle to build AI has “moved from models to chips, and now to energy,” a shift that turns the Gulf’s traditional advantage into a potential AI advantage. Building an AI “stack” means not just buying software, but securing chips, data centers, and the electricity to run them, at speeds and volumes that many democracies struggle to permit or finance.
That helps explain the report’s most newsworthy projection: Gulf countries could account for roughly 5–10% of new global AI-optimized compute capacity over the next decade, outpacing Europe’s expected share and punching above their weight in population and GDP.
Watch a video explainer by Joe Kawly on how Gulf countries are embracing AI.
In Conversation
Syria at Risk of Collapse
The recent optimism about Syria’s transition may be overlooking how fragile the country really is. A deadly attack near Palmyra that killed two U.S. soldiers and a civilian interpreter has exposed deep fractures inside the new Syrian security order and raised doubts about whether President al-Sharaa can control the armed factions now woven into the state.
Will Todman is chief of staff for the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and recently returned from a visit to Syria.
“There is probably over-optimism in Washington, D.C. I have not seen a true appreciation of the scale of the challenges Syrians are facing,” he told Joe on MBN’s The Diplomat podcast.
“What keeps getting overlooked is this belief that he can keep all these groups aligned. The reality is that some of them feel he has become too moderate.”
“There’s a gray line here. Was this [attack on American servicemen] ISIS? Someone inspired by ISIS? Or someone angry at the growing U.S.-Syrian coordination? If it’s the latter, that’s far more worrying.”
“There are major factions within the Syrian government that do not want engagement with the West. They think he’s gone too far.”
“This is the misunderstanding around sanctions. People think lifting them means immediate economic change. It will take a long time for investors to trust the environment.”
“My fear is that the U.S. might say, ‘We’ve done our part,’ and then take a step back.”
Listen or watch the full conversation on The Diplomat.
Closer
What You Read (and Watched) in 2025
The biggest and most followed events of the year were the region’s wars: Iran-Israel, Gaza, Sudan and Yemen. But the audiences on Alhurra, MBN’s flagship Arabic language platform, engaged with other storylines from the region.
These were the five most read stories of 2025 on alhurra.com:
- “Sisi And Two Surprising Decisions…Why Now?” Our most read of the year dissected Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi’s choice to return a bill on criminal procedure to the Egyptian Parliament and issue a presidential pardon for prominent political activist Alaa Abdel Fattah. Was this a humanitarian turn, or political maneuvering? (Spoiler: it’s a bit of both.)
- “China Issues Strongly Worded Warning to Israel.” China was furious at Israel following a secret visit by Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister to Israel.
- “Khartoum Courts Washington.” The behind-the-scenes details of talks between a Sudanese army delegation and the US administration, which paved the way for the imposition of U.S. sanctions on foreign entities and others involved in the ongoing war in Sudan.
- “The Two-State Solution… in Yemen.” Exclusive interview with Aidarous Al-Zubaidi, president of the powerful Southern Transitional Council, in which he shared his two-state solution for Yemen and create a new country called “South Arabia.”
- “U.S.–Algeria: Beyond Normalization and Sahara.” How Washington and Algiers are quietly deepening cooperation on security and energy despite unresolved rifts over Israel and Western Sahara.
And the most popular videos:
- “We just got $4 trillion — and you’re disappointed?” That was President Trump’s response to a reporter after signing massive deals with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar – and our most watched video of the year.
- “I think President Erdogan is the one responsible for Syria,” President Trump said during White House talks with the Turkish leader.
- B-2 stealth bombers fly overhead as Trump receives Putin in Alaska for talks on the Ukraine crisis.
- What did Trump say about the “closure” of the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque?
A remark by the U.S. president sparked wide debate after the mosque was closed for the first time in its history to receive him during his official visit to the UAE. - A blunt message from Israeli Druze Knesset member Hamad Amar to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, invoking shared history and challenging the persistence of sectarian rhetoric, quickly drew wide attention.
Cheyn Shah
Cheyn Shah is a journalist and analyst who has worked with CNN, Voice of America, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. He is now part of MBN’s Washington, D.C., team, where he covers U.S. foreign policy and Middle East affairs, bringing analytical depth and on-the-ground insight to MBN’s reporting from the American capital to the Arab world.
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan, a Yemeni journalist and documentary filmmaker based in Washington, D.C., holds a master's degree in media studies.
Joe Kawly
Joe Kawly is a veteran global affairs journalist with over two decades of frontline reporting across Washington, D.C. and the Middle East. A CNN Journalism Fellow and Georgetown University graduate, his work focuses on U.S. foreign policy, Arab world politics, and diplomacy. With deep regional insight and narrative clarity, Joe focuses on making complex global dynamics clear, human, and relevant.
