As the year draws to a close, Lebanon is entering a delicate phase in which efforts to confine weapons to state authority north of the Litani River have moved to the forefront of political and security debates. At the center of the issue is Hezbollah’s arsenal, widely seen as the most significant test of the state’s ability to enforce its sovereignty.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said Dec. 20 that the first phase of the plan to confine weapons south of the Litani River was nearing completion and that the state was preparing to move to the second phase north of the river.
Salam made the remarks during a meeting with former ambassador Simon Karam, head of the Lebanese delegation to the committee monitoring the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, known as the “Mechanism.” He said the next phase would be implemented based on a plan prepared by the Lebanese Armed Forces at the government’s request.
The announcement prompted questions about what has been achieved on the ground, including whether Hezbollah’s weapons south of the Litani have been fully dismantled and whether the state can carry out the next phase in areas the group says should be excluded.
Disarmament Claims Questioned
Lebanese army commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal reaffirmed the prime minister’s statement during an extraordinary meeting attended by senior officers, saying the army was close to completing the first phase of its plan.
Israel, however, has accused Hezbollah of attempting to rearm and smuggle weapons from Syria. In November, Israeli military spokesman Nadav Shoshani told Reuters that Israeli forces had successfully blocked land routes, but that Hezbollah continued to pose a threat.
An assessment by Israel’s Alma Research and Education Center reported weekly attempts to smuggle light and medium weapons, including hundreds of Kornet anti-tank missiles and Grad rockets. The report said some shipments had reached Lebanese territory.
Amin Bashir, a political analyst and lawyer, said the measures taken south of the Litani did not amount to a full monopoly of arms by the state. He described the situation as “relative field control,” marked by increased army deployment in areas that are now more stable.
“Hezbollah has reduced its visible presence and scaled back heavy weapons and military infrastructure in the area,” Bashir told Alhurra. “But these steps resemble a symbolic implementation of the decision rather than full enforcement.”
Bashir warned that any Israeli strike on a weapons depot or military site south of the Litani following an official declaration that the first phase had ended would undermine claims that the area is free of weapons and would embarrass the state, the army and Hezbollah.
Journalist and political analyst Youssef Diab said the army had effectively dismantled weapons south of the river within the coordinates provided to the Mechanism committee. He acknowledged the possibility of undisclosed weapons caches that may not even be known to Israel.
Any future discoveries, Diab said, would be dismantled under the supervision of the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers, eliminating justification for military action.
Retired Brig. Gen. George Nader, a strategic analyst, said it was too early to draw conclusions before the army issues its official report and assessment. He noted that much of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure is clandestine and may not be fully visible to intelligence services.
Haykal is expected to present a detailed report to the Cabinet early in the new year outlining the results of the first phase.
Focus Shifts North of the Litani
As Lebanon prepares to announce the completion of the first phase south of the Litani, attention is turning to areas north of the river, where the state’s ability to extend the plan will face its most serious test. The second phase includes territory between the Litani and Awali rivers.
Haykal said the army is carefully evaluating and planning future stages while taking into account various conditions and constraints.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem has repeatedly said the group will not hand over its weapons north of the Litani, arguing that the ceasefire agreement limits weapons collection to areas south of the river.
Hezbollah officials say any discussion of the issue depends on an end to Israeli strikes, Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory and the release of detained Lebanese nationals.
Qassem’s position drew a response from Samir Ja’ajaa, leader of the Lebanese Forces party, who said it contradicts the ceasefire agreement. Ja’ajaa said the agreement requires implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of all armed groups across Lebanon, the exclusive possession of weapons by legitimate authorities, and the dismantling of unauthorized military facilities, beginning south of the Litani but not limited to it.
Bashir said Hezbollah’s distinction between south and north of the Litani amounts to a maneuver in interpreting Resolution 1701.
Nader said the government appears determined to complete the plan and that any formal mandate would translate into operational steps north of the river. He added that Resolution 1701 does not geographically restrict disarmament to the south.
Several Lebanese political parties view the next phase as a test not only of Hezbollah but also of the state’s seriousness in asserting authority nationwide.
International Support and Rising Tensions
The Mechanism committee continues to monitor the army’s actions and held its 15th meeting in Naqoura on Dec. 19. A statement from the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon said military participants agreed that strengthening the Lebanese army, which is responsible for security south of the Litani, is essential. Civilian participants stressed that sustained political and economic progress is necessary to solidify security gains.
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said the Lebanese army must be strengthened despite ongoing challenges. In an interview with Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, he said international support should give the army an opportunity to succeed, noting that stronger Lebanese forces would reduce threats to Israel.
France’s Foreign Ministry said France, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon had agreed to organize an international conference in February to support the Lebanese army following talks in Paris involving Haykal and officials from the three countries.
The diplomatic momentum was overshadowed by a sharp escalation after Israel accused the Lebanese army of cooperating with Hezbollah. Following an Israeli strike on a vehicle near the southern city of Sidon, Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee said three Hezbollah members were killed and claimed one served in an intelligence unit within the Lebanese army.
Adraee said Israel views such alleged cooperation as “extremely serious.”
The Lebanese army denied the claim, saying the reports were intended to undermine confidence in the institution. The army said its members’ allegiance is solely to the military and the state.
Questions Over Readiness
Diab said the army’s readiness should be assessed separately from political backing. He said political cover exists through a government formed by an elected parliament but questioned whether the army has the military capacity to impose control north of the Litani—particularly between the Litani and Awali rivers—without Hezbollah’s cooperation.
Salam reiterated the need to provide the army with full support to enable it to carry out its responsibilities.
Bashir said the army has already demonstrated its ability to deploy south of the Litani and that claims of incapacity are often used to justify delaying disarmament. He said disarmament by force is not under consideration and that voluntary handover under a government decision is needed to preserve internal stability and avoid confrontation with Israel.
Nader said the army has the capability to implement its plan but that the central issue remains whether full political backing is in place.
Joseph Clervield, chairman of the Mechanism committee, has praised the Lebanese army’s professionalism and discipline, calling its performance a key factor in regional stability.
Escalating Warnings
The debate over Hezbollah’s weapons has unfolded amid rising Israeli rhetoric. Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned Sunday that Israeli forces would strike enemies “wherever necessary, on near and distant fronts alike.”
U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham said that if Hezbollah refuses to relinquish its heavy weapons, military action may follow in coordination with Lebanon, Israel and the United States.
In Lebanon, former lawmaker Fares Said questioned the timeline for disarmament, asking how long Hezbollah would need to withdraw north of the Awali River after taking nearly a year to redeploy north of the Litani following the ceasefire decision, and how long it would take to dismantle its weapons nationwide under the Taif Agreement.
Opponents of Hezbollah argue that retaining weapons north of the Litani serves no purpose if arms are removed from the south and no longer pose a threat to Israel, saying the weapons would then be used primarily to maintain internal leverage.
Diab said Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm represents a direct challenge to the state and the international community and risks pushing Lebanon into a dangerous phase, with possible escalations ranging from Israeli military action to clashes between Hezbollah and the Lebanese army.
Bashir warned against managing the crisis without resolving it, while Nader said continued hesitation could prompt Israel to impose a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. He added that U.S. pressure has so far limited strikes on Lebanese infrastructure.
Nader said the coming days will be decisive, shaped by the army’s report, government decisions and regional developments, including a scheduled meeting on Dec. 26 between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump and its potential implications for Lebanon.
