The killing of Ghassan Nassan al-Sukhni– a former military commander in Syria’s ousted regime’s army, is not an unsignificant incident.
A few bullets ended Sukhni’s life in Lebanon’s Keserwan region, but they also reopened one of the most sensitive and complex files facing Lebanon: the presence of remnants of the Assad regime on Lebanese soil, the scale of that presence, and the risks of turning the country into an open arena for cross-border score-settling.
Sukhni’s body was found hours after he went missing, under mysterious circumstances that quickly fueled questions extending beyond the details of the crime to its political and security implications. He had led the “al-Tarameeh” group within the former Syrian army’s 25th Special Mission Division, commanded by Suheil al-Hassan, before fleeing to Lebanon after the regime’s collapse. His escape, however, ended violently, with gunfire whose true motives remain disputed.
Lebanon’s official narrative framed the killing as a purely criminal act. The Lebanese army announced the arrest of a Syrian suspect, identified by the initials W.D., on Dec. 23 after what it described a security surveillance and follow-up. According to the statement, the suspect lured Sukhni to an area near the village of Kfaryassine in Keserwan on Dec. 22 and shot him with a handgun, killing him over a financial dispute.
That account, however, has not closed the door on speculation. Observers argue that the killing of a former officer of Sukhni’s stature cannot easily be separated from the broader regional security context. The timing, location and Sukhni’s military record have all reinforced suspicions of a targeted security operation, reflecting the spillover of Syria’s post-Assad phase into Lebanon.
Assassination or Settling of Scores?
As news of the killing spread, social media lit up with speculation. Some commentators described the incident as a sign of an emerging confrontation between Syrian security services and remnants of the former regime based in Lebanon, urging the Lebanese government to take urgent steps to curb the activities of groups linked to the Assad era and warning against Lebanon becoming a venue for regional score-settling.
Those concerns were not without precedent. The killing followed the reported abduction of Sami Oubari, a former commander of Syria’s National Defense Forces in Aleppo, from the coastal town of Tabarja and his transfer to Syria, according to social media accounts.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Sukhni was killed after a failed abduction attempt, further bolstering, in the eyes of some observers, the argument that the incidents are not isolated.
Ismat al-Absi, a military and strategic analyst, told Alhurra that Sukhni’s killing “carries a criminal cover but falls within a broader trajectory of targeting remnants of the former regime,” adding that it was “part of a wider security message rather than an isolated incident.”
An Old File Reopens
After the collapse of Assad’s rule, hundreds of Syrian commanders, officers and soldiers fled the country, with some seeking temporary or permanent refuge in Lebanon. Many are accused of war crimes or crimes against humanity, and some are subject to international sanctions or wanted by Interpol.
Western media reports, including by The Media Line, have spoken of the presence of hundreds of former Syrian officers in Lebanon, citing lists allegedly handed by Damascus to Beirut containing the names of around 300 officers, along with detailed information about their whereabouts and movements. Such reports suggest close intelligence monitoring and growing international pressure — particularly from France — to pursue suspects accused of serious crimes.
Asked about the extent of Syrian authorities’ knowledge of these figures in Lebanon, Absi said it was “very high,” citing “detailed lists with names, ranks, locations, phone numbers and activities,” along with intelligence follow-up and contacts involving Beirut and Washington.
Mohammad Sablouh, director of the legal program at the Cedar Center, said many of the Syrian officers in Lebanon entered the country illegally after Assad’s fall, rendering their stay unlawful and preventing them from being classified as refugees, especially given allegations of torture and other abuses. He pointed to what he called a striking contradiction: “Some of them obtained official residency permits despite having entered illegally,” citing foreign media reports.
Sablouh told Alhurra that French judicial authorities had requested, through legal channels, the pursuit and capture of some of these officers and provided Lebanese authorities with information on their places of residence. “How can Lebanon claim ignorance of their presence,” he asked, “when international intelligence services have their addresses?”
That assessment is based on documented cases, including a CNN interview conducted in Beirut with Bassam al-Hassan, Assad’s former security adviser, who said the former Syrian president had ordered the execution of American journalist Austin Tice.
Has the Conflict Reached Lebanon?
Observers say Sukhni’s killing may be a warning sign. The presence of such Syrian elements in Lebanon, they argue, has become a ticking time bomb that could explode if it continues to be handled with neglect.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Lebanon had entered “a dangerous phase of security instability linked to the Syrian file,” citing a meeting in Beirut involving a representative of Syrian intelligence, a figure presented as a member of a “civil peace committee,” and Lebanese security officers. While the meeting was portrayed as cooperation on counterterrorism and border control, the Observatory said its real focus was the issue of former regime officers in Lebanon and attempts to hand some of them over to Damascus — attempts that were reportedly rejected by Lebanon.
According to the Observatory, the failure of that track pushed Damascus toward riskier options, including assassinations carried out by allied factions operating inside Lebanon in a bid to impose new realities on the gournd.
Some analysts have linked Sukhni’s killing to reports of recent security meetings in Beirut involving Brig. Gen. Abdul Rahman al-Dabbagh, a senior Syrian intelligence official, focused on Syrian figures residing in Lebanon who are suspected of security and incitement activities destabilizing Syria.
The developments coincided with media leaks about covert efforts by senior figures from the former regime, operating from exile, to stir armed unrest inside Syria — claims reported by The New York Times based on intercepted calls and messages. The paper said Syrian officials monitoring those figures had downplayed the immediate threat, citing fragmentation within those networks.
Absi, however, said the concern remains real, stressing that there’s less fear of hatching a classical coup, but more over “the formation of an armed and security-minded opposition nucleus with experience drawn from the old state apparatus.”
Asked about the significance of undisclosed security meetings in Beirut, Absi said they were about “setting new rules of engagement,” adding that Damascus was formally demanding the handover of former regime figures and redefining its security relationship with Lebanon away from the old tutelage model, “but without abandoning pressure.”
A Test for the Lebanese State
Legally, Lebanon — a signatory to the Convention Against Torture — faces two options, according to Sablouh: either extradite these officers to a judicial authority that guarantees fair trials or prosecute them domestically if there are credible fears that they would face torture if deported.
He noted that after Assad’s fall on Dec. 8, 2024, the Lebanese army handed over around 70 Syrians — including officers of various ranks from the former regime — to Syria’s military operations administration later that month after arresting them for illegal entry near Jbeil, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.
Sablouh warned against Lebanon becoming a safe haven for perpetrators of war crimes and crimes against humanity, arguing that allowing them to stay with impunity could entangle the country in security and political crises, whether through the use of its territory to plan destabilizing acts or by straining relations with Syria’s new authorities and the international community.
On security risks, Absi said Lebanon faces the prospect of “a series of assassinations and kidnappings carried out by Syrians against fellow Syrians on its soil,” along with the danger of domestic and international political pressure if the file is not managed through a clear agreement.
He added that the issue would likely accelerate the need for a much-warranted security relationship between Beirut and Damascus — one that would, nevertheless, be “tense and full of bargaining.”
